2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (November)

Can’t really find a reason to alter my top 5 in director just yet, although chatter about the holiday weekend box office of Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans ($3.1M for the 5-day in 638 theaters) sure had some folks in a tizzy about his and the film’s chances. It will end up depending on the DGA probably more than anything; he landed there for West Side Story last year (an actual box office bomb) before the Academy nominated him, following the same trajectory as 2012’s Lincoln. Recently, 2011’s War Horse, 2015’s Bridge of Spies and 2017’s The Post all hit Best Picture but he missed out after first missing DGA.

The race for a possible (likely) non-English language film director is heating up and since we’ve now had at least one in since 2018, then we’re looking at Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Bardo) and Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) as the most likely contenders. Ruben Östlund could find himself like Yorgos Lanthimos in 2018 with The Favourite, landing a nomination for his first English-language film but still feeling like a ‘foreign’ pick. Interestingly that year, he was joined by Alfonso Cuarón with his semi-bio Roma and Paweł Pawlikowski for Cold War, making for the most international set of Best Director nominees we’ve ever had. Could we see a repeat with Östlund/Park/Iñárritu this year?

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Director for November.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures)
3. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
5. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

6. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) ↑
7. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↑
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↑
9. Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros) ↑
10. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
11. Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
12. Guillermo del Toro and Mark Gustafson – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) ↑
13. Darren Aronofsky – The Whale (A24) ↓
14. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) ↓
15. Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
16. Gina Prince-Bythewood – The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures)
17. Chinonye Chukwu – Till (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓
18. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
19. Charlotte Wells – Aftersun (A24) ♦
20. Maria Schrader – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Luca Guadagnino – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Hirokazu Kore-eda – Broker (NEON)
Lisa Neugebauer – Causeway (Apple Original Films)
Lukas Dhont – Close (A24) ♦
Sam Mendes – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Kasi Lemmons – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony/TriStar)
S.S. Rajamouli – RRR (Variance Films) ↓
Florian Zeller – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix)