2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR (July)

It’s been a busy week, hasn’t it?

With the Venice Film Festival lineup announced, giving us the world premieres of Bardo, The Whale, The Son and so much more, and the TIFF reveal of Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelman‘s having its world premiere there and first wave announcement of Toronto gala and special presentation films today, you’d think that would be enough to really get early Oscar predictions kicked into high gear. And truth be told, it certainly does. The Spielberg news is monumental; his first appearance at the Canadian festival and the director’s first festival appearance for one of his big awards contenders since 2015’s Bridge of Spies (it kicked off at NYFF, as did 2012’s Lincoln, each won an acting Oscar). He’s just never been a big festival starter as a director so this is kind of a big deal. He made a big Oscar comeback last year with West Side Story, which earned seven Oscar nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director, and won Best Supporting Actress for Ariana DeBose. All without any festival presence and a mid-December release. With The Fabelman‘s landing in theaters for the Thanksgiving holiday and making a festival run, it’s hard not to see it as a frontrunner right now.

But, amongst all of this real news came the unconfirmed report that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon for Apple Original Films might be pushed to 2023 and be a Cannes Film Festival premiere. Now, this isn’t a revolutionary idea, thinking that a Scorsese film might be pushed a year – his very long post-production schedules are well documented – but what major and minor outlets did was use language like ‘is’ and ‘will’ without any actual word or confirmation from Apple or anyone from the film itself. Deadline originated the rumor in a piece from July 26 by Justin Kroll and Mike Fleming, Jr. in a new column they call The Dish where they explicitly state: “This will start a regular column for Deadline journos to plant their flag in deals, hires and firings and industry developments before they’re fully baked.” Industry developments before they’re fully baked. Essentially, a column of rumor and speculation before any facts or truth are known. That’s fine, that’s a part of predicting and a part of talking about the industry. Later in the day, in an interview with Deadline, Alberto Barbera, artistic director of the Venice Film Festival, revealed, inadvertently, that Killers of the Flower Moon was “far from ready,” saying “probably a Cannes or Venice film next year. It’s a long edit.” So, by all accounts, Deadline sourced this from their interview with Barbera only (who, incidentally, misspoke in the same interview, saying that The Fabelmans would actually be at Telluride first. That interview has now been edited and amended). But, the damage was already done as several Film Twitter accounts began running the rumor as fact, with even Variety jumping into the mix saying “Now with Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” with Leonardo DiCaprio officially going into 2023,” again with no actual official confirmation of anything. On top of that, the speculation continued that Antoine Fuqua’s Emancipation, starring newly minted Oscar winner and banned Academy member Will Smith, would suddenly be reappearing as a 2022 release. No word from Apple this week amid these rumors as they’ve been occupied with films like Causeway, The Greatest Beer Run Ever and Raymond & Ray announced for world premiere kick offs at TIFF.

So what does all of this mean for my Oscar predictions? In a sense, everything and nothing. It’s absolutely possible that the $200M Killers of the Flower Moon will land in 2023 (although a Cannes kick off seems so out of sync). For Paramount Pictures, Apple’s theatrical distribution partner for Killers, lifting it from 2022, where that studio has another huge triple digit budgeted Oscar contender in Damien Chazelle’s Babylon, makes a lot of sense.

Apple will also have Ridley Scott’s Napoleon next year with Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby, which has a rumored May release (based on a source of mine from the film, possible Cannes opener?). Where I land with all of this? For now, it’s business as usual and I’m treating Killers of the Flower Moon as a 2022 release (and Emancipation and Napoleon as 2023) until things are confirmed either way. If and once it’s officially set for 2023 then it simply comes out of this season’s predictions and we move on. Same goes for Emancipation and Napoleon. It’s that simple.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Picture and Best Director for July 2022.

BEST PICTURE

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
3. Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
4. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
6. Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
7. The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑
8. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
9. The Whale (A24)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) ↓
    

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11. TÁR (Focus Features)
12. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
13. Broker (NEON)
14. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
15. Elvis (Warner Bros)
16. She Said (Universal Pictures)
17. White Noise (Netflix)
18. The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix) ↑
19. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑
20. Decision to Leave (MUBI)↑

Other contenders (alphabetical):

• All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
• Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) ♦
• Blonde (Netflix)
• Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Cha Cha Real Smooth (Apple Original Films)
• Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
• Civil War (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
• Close (A24)
• Amsterdam – 20^th Century Studios
• Causeway (Apple Original Films)
• Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
• Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Flamin’ Hot (Searchlight Pictures)
• Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ♦
• Golda (Bleecker Street)
• The Good Nurse (Netflix)
• The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
• Happening (IFC Films)
• I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia/TriStar)
• The Killer (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
• Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
• The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• Rustin (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Shirley (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Showing Up (A24)
• Spaceman of Bohemia (Netflix)
• Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
• The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios/MGM/UAR)
• Till (UAR/Orion)
• True Love – 20^thCentury Studios
• The Wonder (Netflix)
• The Zone of Interest (A24)

Without distribution

• Across the River and Into the Trees – TBD
• Brother and Sister – TBD
• The Brutalist – TBD
• Corner Office – TBD
• Don Juan – TBD
• Joika – TBD
• The Lost King – TBD
• Maggie Moore(s) – TBD
• Manodrome – TBD
• Misanthrope – TBD
• November – TBD

BEST DIRECTOR

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
3. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
4. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↑
5. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (MGM/UAR) ↓
   

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6. The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
7. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
8. Darren Aronofsky – The Whale (A24)
9. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
10. Florian Zeller – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑
11. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) ↑
12. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
13. Hirozaku Kore-eda – Broker (NEON)
14. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix)
15. Maria Schrader – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↑
16. Scott Cooper – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix) ↑
17. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
18. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↑
19. Audrey Diwan – Happening (IFC Films) ↑
20. Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros)

Other contenders (alphabetical):

• Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
• David O. Russell – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
• James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
• Ryan Coogler – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) ♦
• Andrew Dominick – Blonde (Netflix)
• Luca Guadagnino – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• Maggie Betts – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Benjamin Millepied – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Stephen Williams – Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
• Alex Garland – Civil War (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
• Lukas Dhont – Close (A24)
• Ari Aster – Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
• Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Eva Longoria – Flamin’ Hot (Searchlight Pictures)
• Garth Davis – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Guy Nattiv – Golda (Bleecker Street)
• Tobias Lindholm – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
• Peter Farrelly – The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
• Kasi Lemmons – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia/TriStar)
• David Fincher – The Killer (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
• Oliver Hermanus – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Mark Mylod – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Michael Grandage – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Rodrigo García – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• Lisa Neugerbauer – Causeway (Apple Original Films)
• George C. Wolfe – Rustin (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• John Ridley – Shirley (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Kelly Reichardt – Showing Up (A24)
• Johan Renck – Spaceman of Bohemia (Netflix)
• Sally El-Hossaini – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Michael Showalter – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
• Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
• Chinonye Chukwu – Till (MGM/UAR)
• Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ♦
• Gareth Edwards – True Love (20^thCentury Studios)
• Sebastián Lelio – The Wonder (Netflix)
• Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)

Without distribution

• Paula Ortiz – Across the River and Into the Trees – TBD
• Arnaud Desplechin – Brother and Sister – TBD
• Joachim Back – Corner Officer – TBD
• James Napier Robertson – Joika – TBD
• Stephen Frears – The Lost King – TBD
• Cedric Jimenez – November – TBD
• John Slattery – Maggie Moore(s) – TBD
• John Trengove – Manodrome – TBD
• Damian Szifron – Misanthrope – TBD
• Alice Winocour – Revoir Paris – TBD
• Rebecca Miller – She Came to Me – TBD