We’re doing things a little bit different this month, starting with Best Picture rather than closing monthly predictions with them. Why, you ask? A big reason is because we have our lineups for Venice, NYFF and TIFF (which means we basically know what’s showing up at Telluride, save a few surprises) and for “early” predictions this is what we’ve been waiting for.
Venice will give us the world premieres of A24’s The Whale, Netflix’s Bardo, Focus Features’ TÁR, Searchlight’s The Banshees of Inisherin and Sony Pictures Classic’s The Son, among many others. Some of those premieres will role right into Telluride (like Bardo and TÁR) but Telluride is feeling a little…light this year. We know it will bring the world premieres of Searchlight’s Empire of Light and MGM’s Women Talking as well as The Wonder and Lady Chatterly’s Lover, both from Netflix. But apart from a huge surprise (like a Babylon) or a sneaky steal from TIFF like Belfast last year, it might be a bit quiet on the mountain for a major studio kick-off like we’ve seen in recent years with films like Warner Bros’ King Richard or 20th Century’s Ford v Ferrari, both Best Picture nominees in their respective years as well as Oscar winners.
Among its many world premieres, TIFF has Universal’s The Fabelmans and Netflix’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, two films that will definitely be vying for the TIFF People’s Choice Award and potentially major Oscar players. Apple has been largely quiet on the festival front but is world premiering three of their upcoming films at TIFF, Causeway (formerly Red, White and Water at A24) The World’s Greatest Beer Run and Raymond & Ray. Neither of them really feel like contenders but never say never to that, the streamer is the reigning Best Picture winner with last year’s CODA, a film that side-stepped every possible record to become victorious. NYFF has claimed the premieres of Universal’s She Said and MGM’s Till but their opener, centerpiece and closer are all non-world premiere films (Netflix’s White Noise, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and A24’s The Inspection, respectively). While both fests will have a wealth of films represented, Venice really ate everyone’s lunch this year.
Speaking of Apple, there is also the status of Killers of the Flower Moon from Martin Scorsese. I made a pretty big stink last month when top outlets and others insisted on it being confirmed for 2023 and with each passing day that is obviously the most likely scenario. Apple, nor anyone close to the film, has even hinted or offered anything on either side but we do know that this week the film shot footage for the film’s prologue in New York. It’s not known for sure, but it seems this was using only extras for a few days of work and doesn’t feature anything new from the film’s major stars like Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Jesse Plemons or Lily Gladstone. Still, it shows how unfinished the film is and that the speculation is probably accurate. For this month, I’ll be including Killers of the Flower Moon on my list but as a parenthetical in the placement where I think it will land if it’s a 2022 release. Have I made this harder than it needs to be? Probably. Am I stubborn? Definitely. But we won’t know until we know.
Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Picture for August 2022.
Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦
1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↑
(Killers of the Flower Moon – Apple Original Films)
3. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
4. Women Talking (MGM/UAR) ↑
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
6. Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
7. The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
9. The Whale (A24)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↑
11. Elvis (Warner Bros) ↑
12. Decision to Leave (MUBI)↑
13. TÁR (Focus Features)↓
14. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) ↓
16. She Said (Universal Pictures)
17. White Noise (Netflix)
18. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑
19. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) ↑
20. Broker (NEON) ↓
Other contenders (alphabetical):
- All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
- Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
- Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
- Blonde (Netflix)
- Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
- The Burial (Amazon Studios)
- Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
- Close (A24)
- Causeway (Apple Original Films)
- Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
- Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
- Foe (Amazon Studios)
- Golda (Bleecker Street)
- The Good Nurse (Netflix)
- The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
- Happening (IFC Films)
- I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia/TriStar)
- The Killer (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
- Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
- Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
- The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
- My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
- Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
- Rustin (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
- The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix) ↓
- Shirley (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
- Showing Up (A24)
- Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
- The Swimmers (Netflix)
- Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios/MGM/UAR)
- Till (UAR/Orion)
- The Wonder (Netflix)
- Across the River and Into the Trees – TBD
- Brother and Sister – TBD
- The Brutalist – TBD
- Corner Office – TBD
- Don Juan – TBD
- Joika – TBD
- Maggie Moore(s) – TBD
- Manodrome – TBD
- Misanthrope – TBD
- November – TBD