2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (November)

The Gotham Awards may only be a handful of critics that decide nominations and winners but as the first group to reveal winners, they can often set the pace or at least the path for future frontrunners and winners. In the 2010s they had a Best Feature winning streak with Birdman, Spotlight and Moonlight that heralded a move within the Academy from major studio spectacles to indie dramas that coincided with their expanded Best Picture lineup and consensus ballot tabulation. Most recently, Nomadland started its run here, pushing all the way through as the critics’ pick of the year on to the Best Picture Oscar.

At last night’s Gotham Awards, the Best Feature battle was a fierce one with TÁR and Everything Everywhere All At Once the nomination leaders going in. TÁR took an early win for Todd Field’s screenplay then Ke Huy Quan snagged Outstanding Supporting Performance, giving the kind of speech that could carry him all the way this season (much the way CODA’s Troy Kotsur did last year). In the end, Everything Everywhere All At Once triumphed and the little A24 film that turned into the studio’s biggest box office hit ever and positions itself in an interesting way; as a frontrunner and an underdog. It’s early, we aren’t even in December yet, but if it can balance that tightrope walk long enough, it could go all the way and give A24 its first Best Picture Oscar win since 2016’s Moonlight.

And yes, I have relented, I have given in. Top Gun: Maverick is in my top 10 (“Finally!” said everyone) and so is Elvis, which continues to build with packed guild and Academy screenings and word of mouth support that campaign ads can’t buy.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Picture for November.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) ↑
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓
5. TÁR (Focus Features)
6. Elvis (Warner Bros) ↑
7. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑
8. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↓
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↓
10. The Whale (A24) ↓

11. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
12. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) ↑
13. The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures) ↑
14. Decision to Leave (MUBI)
15. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
16. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) ↓
17. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios) ↑
18. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
19. Till (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓
20. She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Aftersun (A24)
Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Broker (NEON)
Close (A24)
Causeway (Apple Original Films)
Devotion (Sony Pictures)
Emancipation (Apple Original Films) ↓
Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony/TriStar Pictures)
The Inspection (A24)
Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
RRR (Variance Films)
The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
White Noise (Netflix)