2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (October)

Three films that have been in limited theaters go wider today – The Banshees of Inisherin, TÁR and Till – and they all make significant moves up, namely Till, which enters my top 10 along with Chinonye Chukwu’s ascent in the Best Director race.

Am I still hesitant on how this year’s real and potential blockbusters will play here? Yes. Am I still foolish for doing so? Maybe. But I am inching Top Gun: Maverick up closer to my top 10 so there’s that. *please clap*

The Gotham Awards, which recognize films with budgets at or under $30M, gave us a lot of love for TÁR, Everything Everywhere All at Once and Aftersun with their nominations, a potential bellwether from the first critics’ group of the year. November will bring us the British Independent Film Awards nominations, European Film Awards nominations, Spirit Awards nominations, the Gotham Awards themselves, and presumably the National Board of Review. They haven’t officially revealed the date of their awards announcement but historically (save a pandemic) they’re usually the last week of November or first week of December.

Outside of my top 5, I think there is an extraordinary amount of possibility. The Oscar shortlists in December will give us real insight into where voters are going (although last year, No Time to Die hit every category it could then ended up with three Oscar nominations and one win) but it’s January where everything happens. We’re still in the quiet phase, experimental even. Enjoy it while you can.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Picture for October.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
5. TÁR (Focus Features) ↑
6. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
7. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↑
9. The Whale (A24)
10. Till (UAR/Orion) ↑

11. Elvis (Warner Bros)
12. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
13. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑
14. Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↓
15. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) ↓
16. She Said (Universal Pictures)
17. Emancipation (Apple Original Films) ♦
18. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
19. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios)
20. The Woman King (Sony/TriStar)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Aftersun (A24) ♦
Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Broker (NEON)
Close (A24)
Causeway (Apple Original Films)
Devotion (Sony Pictures) ♦
Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony/TriStar)
The Inspection (A24) ♦
Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
RRR (Raftar Creations)
The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
White Noise (Netflix)

Photo: Jonathan Hession, courtesy of Searchlight Pictures

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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