2023 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (August)

Some big moves and debuts this month, just before the fall festivals tell us (well, me) if they’re right or wrong.

First is Ben Whishaw in Women Talking. The story, about a group of women retelling their experiences in a remote religious colony where they were routinely raped by the colony’s men, is, as one would guess, filled with several actress contenders (see: Supporting Actress predictions) but Whishaw controls the market for men in the film, portraying August Epp, a schoolteacher with whom the women confide in to tell their stories and whose notes were the basis of the 2018 novel of the same name by Miriam Toews, which is loosely based on an ultraconservative Mennonite community in Bolivia. The film will have a Telluride debut, so in just over a week we’ll have much more on Whishaw’s character and possibilities.

Much of the conversation around The Fabelmans has been for Michelle Williams (the stand-in for director Steven Spielberg’s mother) with Paul Dano and Seth Rogen also gathering steam. But, I’m hearing that Judd Hirsch makes quite an impact. Hirsch was nominated for Best Supporting Actorover 40 years ago for 1980’s Ordinary People, but didn’t stand much of a chance against co-star and co-lead Timothy Hutton, who won. This would be quite a comeback for Hirsch, who hasn’t appeared on any awards landscape in decades.

Finally, somehow a secret until this week, Anthony Hopkins, who just won Best Actor two years ago for Florian Zeller’s The Father, will appear in Zeller’s follow-up, The Son, portraying Hugh Jackman’s father and grandfather to the titular son. The character is newly created for the film so we know nothing of him in terms of the original stage play. It could be a very small part, a cameo even, but with enough screen time he could put a dent in co-star Zen McGrath’s chances. Or even his own, playing another warm, grandfatherly role in James Gray’s Armageddon Time.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for August 2022.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (MGM/UAR) ↑
(Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon – Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
3. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) ↑
(Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon – Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
4. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
5. Zen McGrath – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑

6. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ♦
7. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
8. Don Cheadle – White Noise (Netflix) ↑
9. Anthony Hopkins – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ♦
10. Colin Firth – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↓ – lead or supporting?
11. Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia) ↓
12. Tom Hanks – Elvis (Warner Bros) ↑
13. Michael Ward – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting?
14. Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↓
15. Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
16. Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) ↓
17. Daniel Brühl – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) ↑
18. Russell Crowe – The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
19. Tommy Lee Jones – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
20. Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia Pictures) ↑

Other contenders (alphabetical)

• John Boyega – The Woman King (Columbia)
• Andre Braugher – She Said (Universal Pictures)
• Adrien Brody – Blonde (Netflix)
• Bobby Cannavale – Blonde (Netflix)
• Timothée Chalamet – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• David Dawson – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Robert De Niro – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
• Robert Duvall – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
• Ralph Fiennes – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Ethan Hawke – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films) – lead or supporting?
• Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple Original Films)
• Rami Heuberger – Golda (Bleecker Street)
• Ciarán Hinds – The Wonder (Netflix)
• André Holland – Shirley (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Bill Irwin – Rustin (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Toby Jones – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
• John Leguizamo – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Ewan McGregor – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films) – lead or supporting?
• Aaron Pierre – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Chris Pine – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
• Michael Stuhlbarg – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• Harry Styles – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Ali Suliman – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Glynn Turman – Rustin (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• John David Washington – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)

Without distribution

• Matthew Broderick – She Came to Me
• Jean Dujardin – November
• Ben Mendelsohn – Misanthrope
• Nick Mohammad – Maggie Moore(s)
• Sami Outalbali – November
• Tahar Rahim – She Came to Me
• Mark Rylance – The Brutalist
• Sebastian Stan – The Brutalist