2023 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (December)

Narratives are a funny thing when it comes to the Oscars. Lots of people have them, this year is full of them, but you don’t know which ones will really take hold, not just in the sense that someone is ‘due’ but that they’ve earned it.

This season has probably found the one that’s going to go all the way and that’s Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once. His dominance in the critics’ awards, which has no signs of slowing down, are going to push him all the way as he collects nomination after nomination, win after win, and in a year that will have some bittersweet but emotional connections as Steven Spielberg, who gave Quan his big breaks with The Goonies and Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, is also in this season’s race.

The Leaderboard:

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (NBR, NYFCO)
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once (AFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, DFWFCA, Gotham, IFJA, LAFCA, LVFCS, NYFCC, PCC, PFCC, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA)

Quan is one of three contenders to earn Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations, along with Gleeson and his Banshees co-star Barry Keoghan. The rest of the spots are truly up for grab, with Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch (The Fablemans) earning CCA noms with Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) and previous Oscar winners Brad Pitt (Babylon) and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) scooping up star-favored Globe nods.

I’m sticking with Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) and Ben Whishaw (Women Talking) for now, the former as a contender with more than once performance this year to offer voters balance and the latter as being the only male actor in his film. He’s a juried Spirit Award winner as part of the ensemble of his film, which prevented him from being individually nominated, but then, why hasn’t he shown up outside of a Gothams?

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for November.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) – CCA, GG
2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
3. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑ – CCA, GG
4. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA
5. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓

6. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple Original Films) ↑ – CCA
7. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) – CCA
8. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↑ – GG
9. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix) ↑ – GG
10. Tom Hanks – Elvis (Warner Bros)
11. Mark Rylance – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) ↓
12. Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
13. Micheal Ward – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
14. Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
15. Zlatko Burić – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
16. Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
17. Raúl Castillo – The Inspection (A24)
18. Don Cheadle – White Noise (Netflix) ↓
19. John Boyega – The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures)
20. Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Andre Braugher – She Said (Universal Pictures)
Colin Firth – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Ben Foster – Emancipation (Apple Original Films)
Toby Jones – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Zen McGrath – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony/TriStar Pictures) ↓