No top five movement this month (but much will change for August as festival lineups are announced over the next few weeks) but The Son‘s Zen McGrath rises on the strength of his role and as a potential young breakout star of the season. Colin Firth and Micheal Ward also rise as Searchlight Pictures announced a December 9 release date for Empire of Light. On the other side, there is a possibility that Shirley, the feature film on the life of Shirley Chisholm, U.S. Senator and the first Black woman to run for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States, might not be ready, at least for the fall festivals. Same goes for Rustin (both films are being distributed by Netflix), which impacts Glynn Turman’s chances this season.
Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for July 2022.
Green – moves up ↑Red – moves down ↓Blue – new entry ♦
1. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) 2. Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023? 3. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023? 4. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) 5. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
6. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (MGM/UAR) 7. Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) 8. Zen McGrath – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) 9. Colin Firth – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) 10. Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia) 11. Colin Farrell – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR) 12. Don Cheadle – White Noise (Netflix) 13. Michael Ward – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) 14. Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) 15. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) 16. Tom Hanks – Elvis (Warner Bros) 17. André Holland – Shirley (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023? 18. Russell Crowe – The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films) 19. Tommy Lee Jones – The Burial (Amazon Studios) 20. Joel Edgerton – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
Other contenders (alphabetical):
Ben Aldridge – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
Alm Ameen – Rustin (Netflix)
Lior Ashkenazi – Golda (Bleecker Street)
John Boyega – The Woman King (Columbia)
Andre Braugher – She Said (Universal Pictures)
Adrien Brody – Blonde (Netflix)
Daniel Brühl – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
Bobby Cannavale – Blonde (Netflix)
Timothée Chalamet – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Sharlto Copley – Monkey Man (Netflix)
David Dawson – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
Robert De Niro – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
Robert Duvall – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
Ralph Fiennes – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
Ethan Hawke – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
Stephen McKinley Henderson – Civil War (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
Brian Tyree Henry – Red, White, Water (A24)
Rami Heuberger – Golda (Bleecker Street)
Ciarán Hinds – The Wonder (Netflix)
Bill Irwin – Rustin (Netflix)
Toby Jones – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Sukollawat Kanarot – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
Nathan Lane – Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
John Leguizamo – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
Rami Malek – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
Ewan McGregor – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
Harry Melling – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
Denis Menochet – Disappointment Blvd. (A24) – 2022 or 2023?
Viggo Mortensen – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR) – lead or supporting?
Wagner Moura – Civil War (A24) 2022 or 2023?
David Oyelowo – See How They Run (Searchlight Pictures)
Aaron Pierre – Foe (Amazon Studios)
Chris Pine – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
Matthias Schoenaerts – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Michael Stuhlbarg – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Harry Styles – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
Ali Suliman – The Swimmers (Netflix)
Teeradon Supapunpiyo – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia)
Glynn Turman – Rustin (Netflix) ↓
John David Washington – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.