With both the Gothams and Spirit Awards announcing nominations, we’re just starting to see how some of these acting races and narratives can take early shape. Both groups have moved to non-gendered categories but the Oscars (and others) have not so for purposes of predictions, they’ll be more binary than that.
In supporting actor, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Mark Rylance (Bones and All) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) have risen above as the only three to be nominated by both awards bodies. While Quan is attached to a definitive Best Actress frontrunner (as well as other top categories), Henry and Rylance could have a more difficult time and possibly their film’s sole nominations. For Henry, who’s been building a repertoire of heralded performances in both film and television, this would be an exceptionally timed and deserved shot. For Rylance, who won here for 2015’s Bridge of Spies, it would be a triumphant return, one he has yet to make since his win. But will it really be for a blood-soaked, underwear-clad cannibal? In a year of wild films and even wilder roles it would certainly be of a different taste than the Academy is used to but he’s creeping up.
Women Talking received the juried Robert Altman Award from the Spirit Awards for its ensemble, which removes any cast member from receiving an individual nomination. While that is by no means a ding in their real chances (Moonlight won here, then Mahershala Ali won the Supporting Actor Oscar), the collection of nominations is always a plus. As the only male actor in the film, Gotham nominee Ben Whishaw almost assuredly would have gotten a Spirit Award nomination as well had the film not won the ensemble prize.
I was pretty bullish on Judd Hirsch when the first reactions from The Fabelmans out of TIFF were so huge but now I’m wondering if maybe he’s more like Alan Alda in Marriage Story; a previously Oscar-nominated veteran and beloved Emmy winner in a small but integral part of a Best Picture nominee (even with another eventual acting winner) that could’t make the cut. He’s definitely still in the conversation, just down a hair from last month.
Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for November.
Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦
1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24)
2. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
3. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (MGM/UAR) ↓
4. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
5. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
6. Mark Rylance – Bones and All (MGM/UAR) ↑
7. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↓
8. Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple Original Films) ↑
9. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
10. Tom Hanks – Elvis (Warner Bros) ↑
11. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix) ↓
12. Micheal Ward – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ♦
13. Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↓
14. Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) ↓
15. Don Cheadle – White Noise (Netflix)
16. Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
17. Raúl Castillo – The Inspection (A24) ↑
18. Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony/TriStar Pictures)
19. John Boyega – The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures) ↓
20. Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) ↓
Other contenders (alphabetical)
Daniel Brühl – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) ↓
Andre Braugher – She Said (Universal Pictures)
Zlatko Burić – Triangle of Sadness (NEON)
Colin Firth – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Ben Foster – Emancipation (Apple Original Films)
Anthony Hopkins – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
Ciarán Hinds – The Wonder (Netflix)
Toby Jones – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Zen McGrath – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony/TriStar Pictures) ↓
Photo: Yannis Drakoulidis / Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures