2023 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (September)

The Venice, Telluride and Toronto International Film Festivals have brought a wave of change to several charts, not the least of which is supporting actor.

Venice kicked off the love for The Banshees of Inisherin, the latest from Martin McDonagh, where Colin Farrell won the Volpi Cup for Best Actor. But he and the film wouldn’t be a success without the stellar back up of Brendan Gleeson, playing his grizzled and brevity-favored longtime friend who suddenly wants exile from their relationship and Barry Keoghan, a touched kid in the village who offers some of the film’s most touching moments. Gleeson is the favorite with his meatier and screetime-heavy role, and the Emmy-nominated actor has worked with everyone: in Harry Potter films, Gangs of New York, Paddington, Cold Mountain, Braveheart and more, he’s an actor’s actor and it could finally be time for his first Oscar nomination.

Another film juggling multiple contenders here is Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, which just won the TIFF People’s Choice Award last weekend, vaulting it to Oscar frontrunner status. But change is afoot here and, all things not being equal, while Paul Dano has the largest supporting actor role in the film (and has been my #1 for some time) it’s the very brief appearance by Judd Hirsch, who has less than 10 minutes of screentime, who packs the biggest punch. Hirsch is familiar with playing second fiddle to a larger supporting performance; he was Oscar-nominated for 1980’s Best Picture winner Ordinary People, where he lost to co-star Timothy Hutton, as close to a co-lead role as you could get. Even just a nomination here would put Hirsch in a place all his own in Oscar history: the longest span between nominations (42 Years). There’s certainly room for both to get in (there’s also Seth Rogen hanging around the edges) I feel like Dano might be pushed out. Not for lack of deserving, but that in the landscape of much louder and dramatic performances around him in his own film, he could miss.

Several other moves up, including Woody Harrelson in Triangle of Sadness, John Boyega in The Woman King and Daniel Brühl in All Quiet on the Western Front, populate the lower chart with a stealth entry by Academy Award winner Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse, where’s he’s receiving some of the best notices of his career. I had originally pegged him for lead, but Netflix will be pushing him here in supporting.

But, for the first time, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) takes the top spot. With so many comeback and veteran narratives this season, can his stand out and keep him there?

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for September 2022.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) ↑
2. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
3. Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
4. Brad Pitt – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
5. Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↑

6. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↓
7. Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse (Netflix) ♦
8. Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
9. Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
10. Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) ↑
11. Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia Pictures) 
12. Tom Hanks – Elvis (Warner Bros) 
13. John Boyega – The Woman King (Columbia) ↑
14. Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↑
15. Daniel Brühl – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) ↑
16. Don Cheadle – White Noise (Netflix) ↓
17. Colin Firth – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↓
18. Russell Crowe – The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
19. Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia Pictures) ↑
20. Zen McGrath – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

• Andre Braugher – She Said (Universal Pictures)
• Adrien Brody – Blonde (Netflix)
• David Dawson – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Robert De Niro – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
• Robert Duvall – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
• Ralph Fiennes – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway (Apple Original Films)
• Anthony Hopkins – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
• Ciarán Hinds – The Wonder (Netflix)
• Toby Jones – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
• John Leguizamo – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Chris Pine – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Jeremy Strong – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
• Ali Suliman – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• John David Washington – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)

Photo: Jonathan Hession / Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures