2023 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (August)

My #1 may stay the same but there’s quite a bit of movement this month, just before we head into festival season and the majority of these films and performances are actually seen. And, in more than one film, there is the potential for double nominations depending on how campaigning breaks down, including The Son, Women Talking, The Whale, Everything Everywhere All at Once and She Said.

Although she wasn’t able to secure an Emmy nomination in supporting actress for Stranger Things this season, Sadie Sink may have better luck with Oscar, co-starring alongside top Best Actor contender Brendan Fraser in The Whale, who has publicly praised her work in the film. Sink plays Fraser’s estranged 17-year old daughter in the film, about a man suffering from obesity who wants to reconnect with her. Fraser is already set for an acting tribute award at TIFF (the film world premieres at Venice in early September) and Sink could easily be swept up as the actor continues to collect kudos. She’ll have two possible competing co-stars in Hong Chau and Samantha Morton.

One festival film coming soon has already started to generate lots of buzz for one performance in particular and that is Janelle Monáe in Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. World premiering at the Toronto International Film Festival, then hitting Netflix globally on December 23 after a theatrical release, new images of the film popped up today of the cast and, interestingly, one of just Monáe with director Rian Johnson (above). Netflix has had great success in this category with nominees here for the last five years in a row, including two in the last two seasons (Kirsten Dunst and Jessie Buckley last year, Glenn Close and Amanda Seyfried the season prior) and, of course, a win for Laura Dern with 2019’s Marriage Story.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for August 2022.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (MGM/UAR) ↑
(Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
3. Laura Dern – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↑
5. Jean Smart – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↑

6. Vanessa Kirby – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
7. Zoe Kazan/Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓ – lead or supporting?
8. Sadie Sink – The Whale (A24) ↑
9. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) ↓
10. Griselda Sicillani – Bardo, or the False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
11. Claire Foy – Women Talking (MGM/UAR) ↑
12. Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
13. Rooney Mara – Women Talking (MGM/UAR) ↑
14. Whoopi Goldberg – Till (MGM/UAR) ↑
15. Nina Hoss – TÁR (Focus Features) ↓
16. Greta Gerwig – White Noise (Netflix) ↓ – lead or supporting?
17. Samantha Morton – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓
18. Julianne Nicholson – Blonde (Netflix) ↓
19. Patricia Clarkson – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓
20. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel) ♦
• Lucy Boynton – Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
• Tantoo Cardinal – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
• Gemma Chan – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
• Hong Chau – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Hong Chau – Showing Up (A24)
• Crystal Clarke – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
• Kerry Condor – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
• Camille Cottin – Golda (Bleecker Street)
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) ↓
• Rossy de Palma – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Olivia DeJonge – Elvis (Warner Bros)
• Sally Field – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
• Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time (Focus Features) ↓
• Manal Issa – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Nathalie Issa – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Mia Isaac – Don’t Make Me Go (Amazon Studios)
• Li Jun Li – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
• Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King (Columbia)
• Audra McDonald – Rustin (Netflix) ↓ – 2202 or 2023?
• Frances McDormand – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
• Noemie Merlant – TÁR (Focus Features)
• Tanya Moore – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
• Sophie Okonedo – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• CCH Pounder – Rustin (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Jurnee Smollett – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Tilda Swinton – The Killer (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Anya Taylor-Joy – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
• Maribel Verdu – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• Samara Weaving – Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
• Samara Wiley – Causeway (Apple Original Films)
• Nafessa Williams – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia)

Without distribution

• Matilda De Angelis – Across the River and into the Trees – TBD
• Judi Dench – Allelujah – TBD
• Virginie Efira – Don Juan – TBD
• Tina Fey – Maggie Moore(s) – TBD
• Sarah Gadon – Corner Office – TBD
• Lyna Khoudri – November – TBD
• Diane Kruger – Joika – TBD
• Joanna Kulig – She Came to Me – TBD
• Thomasin McKenzie – Eileen – TBD
• Jennifer Saunders – Allelujah – TBD
• Marisa Tomei – She Came to Me – TBD
• Odessa Young – Manodrome – TBD