2023 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (December)

The Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice have given us the beginning of consensus in a wonderfully diverse and difficult to predict category. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) has emerged as bit of a frontrunner, with six critics’ wins and landing both GG and CCA nods. Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) is just behind her with four wins but she missed the Globe nod. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) hasn’t been a critics’ winner but she did manage to nab both GG and CCA nods.

Keke Palmer (Nope) started showing up once Universal Pictures announced they were running her here in supporting (most would call her role and performance a co-lead to Daniel Kaluuya’s but we know how that turned out for Lakeith Stanfield) with scattered wins for Hong Chau in The Whale (who’s also superb in The Menu), Dolly De Leon in Triangle of Sadness (LAFCA) and Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All At Once.

The Leaderboard:

• Hong Chau – The Whale (NYFCO)
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, DFWFCA, StLFCA, WAFCA)
• Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness (LAFCA)
• Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once (UFCA)
• Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (AFCC, LVFCS, NBR, PFCC)
• Keke Palmer – Nope (NYFCC, PCC)

What’s happened to Nina Hoss in TÁR? Co-star Cate Blanchett has been winning Best Actress prizes left and right and Hoss started off well with Gotham and Spirit Award nominations but since then, nothing. No Globe nod, no CCA nod, no wins to speak of. Can she still coattail?

I can’t help but think something feels slightly off about Everything Everywhere All At Once‘s Jamie Lee Curtis in the final five. Curtis has campaigned maybe harder than any of her competitors so far (for herself and others) and she’ll continue to. She’ll probably get a SAG nom. New voting aside, she’s a previous BAFTA winner and will probably get in there too. Nearly every year we have at least one person who hits all the precursors and falls short, be it a previous winner or nominee or a potential first-timer. Just a hunch.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for December.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑ – CCA, GG
2. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios) ↑ – CCA, GG
3. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓ – CCA
4. Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↑ – CCA
5. Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑ – GG

6. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) ↓ – CCA, GG
7. Claire Foy – Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures)
8. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) ↓
9. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) ↑ – CCA
10. Keke Palmer – Nope (Universal Pictures) ↑
11. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↓ – GG
12. Nina Hoss – TÁR (Focus Features) ↓
13. Gabrielle Union – The Inspection (A24) ↓
14. Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures) ↑
15. Laura Dern – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
16. Olivia DeJonge – Elvis (Warner Bros)
17. Jean Smart – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
18. Jennifer Ehle – She Said (Universal Pictures)
19. Vanessa Kirby – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
20. Sadie Sink – The Whale (A24) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Patricia Clarkson – She Said (Universal Pictures)
Greta Gerwig – White Noise (Netflix)
Whoopi Goldberg – Till (MGM/UAR)
Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Kate Hudson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Judith Ivey – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
Nicole Kidman – The Northman (Focus Features)
Ximena Lamadrid – Bardo, or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
Lashana Lynch – The Woman King (Tri-Star)
Noémie Merlant – TÁR (Focus Features)
Samantha Morton – She Said (Universal Pictures)
Samantha Morton – The Whale (A24)
Griselda Sicillani – Bardo, or the False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
Aimee Lou Wood – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)