2023 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (October)

Like in Supporting Actor, the Gotham Awards nominations were the first burst of prediction energy in the awards race and with it came the solidification of at least one contender, the surprise omission of another and an even bigger surprise with at least one inclusion.

We have some crucial and official category placements that definitely impact this category. Universal Pictures revealed that Zoe Kazan will be campaigned lead, while two-time Oscar nominee Carey Mulligan will go supporting for She Said, the true story of the two New York Times reporters who took down Harvey Weinstein. In Women Talking, every actress will go supporting (save Frances McDormand, who is choosing not to campaign for acting) except Rooney Mara, who goes lead. Interestingly, of the top two contenders for the film – Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley – only Buckley was nominated at the Gothams. Buckley was Oscar-nominated last year in this category for The Lost Daughter after first landing a spot at the Gothams and at BAFTA. Foy earned Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe nominations for 2018’s First Man but ultimately missed out on an Oscar nomination.

We still don’t even have an image of Hong Chau in The Whale (much less a trailer, but it’s coming) but she’s positioning herself quite comfortably, and deservedly so. Being in a film with the Best Actor frontrunner and with her Gotham nomination yesterday only helps keep her there. She came close to an Oscar nomination in this category with 2017’s Downsizing, earning Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild and Critics’ Choice nominations.

But one film earned two supporting performance nods there, TÁR. Nina Hoss has been a stealth contender to join Cate Blanchett as a partner not just in the film but in this awards race, but joining her for a Gotham nomination was also Noémie Merlant, who plays Blanchett’s long-suffering assistant in the film.

Gabrielle Union got a boost as well, with her Gotham nod for The Inspection, rounding out the five women nominated in the supporting performance category.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for October.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Hong Chau – The Whale (A24) ↑
2. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) ↑
3. Claire Foy – Women Talking (UAR/Orion) ↓
4. Nina Hoss – TÁR (Focus Features) ↑
5. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↑

6. Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
7. Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) ↑
8. Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
9. Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↓
10. Jean Smart – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓
11. Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King (Tri-Star) ↓
12. Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) ↑
13. Laura Dern – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓
14. Vanessa Kirby – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
15. Sadie Sink – The Whale (A24)
16. Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios)
17. Gabrielle Union – The Inspection (A24) ↑
18. Patricia Clarkson – She Said (Universal Pictures)
19. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ♦ – lead or supporting?
20. Whoopi Goldberg – Till (MGM/UAR)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

• Olivia DeJonge – Elvis (Warner Bros) ♦
• Jennifer Ehle – She Said (Universal Pictures) ♦
• Sally Field – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
• Greta Gerwig – White Noise (Netflix)
• Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
• Kate Hudson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ♦
• Judith Ivey – Women Talking (UAR/Orion)
• Nicole Kidman – The Northman (Focus Features) ♦
• Ximena Lamadrid – Bardo, or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ♦
• Li Jun Li – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
• Lashana Lynch – The Woman King (Tri-Star) ↓
• Noémie Merlant – TÁR (Focus Features)
• Samantha Morton – She Said (Universal Pictures)
• Samantha Morton – The Whale (A24) ♦
• Griselda Sicillani – Bardo, or the False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
• Nafessa Williams – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia)
• Aimee Lou Wood – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)