2023 Oscar Predictions: VISUAL EFFECTS (December)

On December 21, the Academy will reveal the shortlist of 10 contenders who will be eligible to compete for a nomination for Visual Effects and the Visual Effects Society will follow with its nominations on January 17.

Last week, Variety reported an unofficial list of the 20 films that would be eligible for the shortlist stage, which included likely contenders Avatar: The Way of Water, Everything Everywhere All At Once and Top: Gun: Maverick but also a left-field entry, Gigi & Nate, a film that tells the true story of a quadriplegic man and a capuchin monkey. The VFX really does love their monkeys.

Curiously missing from that list were Beast, the lion action film starring Idris Elba and animated Oscar hopeful Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, while Good Night Oppy hopes to become the first documentary since 2020’s Welcome to Chechnya to make the shortlist cut.

The executive committee of the branch determines first the 20 films for that long list and then the 10 for the shortlist. All members of the branch are invited to a screening of excerpts from these 10 films at which potential nominees may discuss their work. Ballots are counted using a system of re-weighted range voting to determine the five nominees.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Visual Effects for December.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) – CCA
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑ – CCA
3. The Batman (Warner Bros) ↑ – CCA
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Marvel Studios) ↑
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios) ↓ – CCA
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CCA
7. RRR (Variance Films) – CCA
8. Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios) ↑
9. Thirteen Lives (Amazon Studios) ↑
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) ↑

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
Black Adam (Warner Bros)
Devotion (Sony Pictures)
Elvis (Warner Bros)
Fantastic Beasts: Secrets of Dumbledore (Warner Bros)
Gigi & Nate (Roadside Attractions) ♦
The Gray Man (Netflix)
Jurassic World: Dominion (Universal Pictures) ↓
Nope (Universal Pictures)
Thor: Love and Thunder (Marvel Studios)