On December 21, the Academy will reveal the shortlist of 10 contenders who will be eligible to compete for a nomination for Visual Effects. Last year, Marvel took four of those spots and you can expect to see them have a decent showing there this year (with Doctor Strange, Thor and Black Panther sequels). Only two managed to make the Oscar cut (Shang-Chi and Spider-Man) and with DC looking to get in on the action with The Batman and Black Adam, it’s going to be a fight.
Animation, specifically stop-motion animation, has never gotten a fair shake here, with 2016’s Kubo and the Two Strings being the only time it’s ever happened. Can Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio match that feat? If enough voters watch the behind the scene and makings of during the shortlist voting, it certainly can.
But will any of it matter against the behemoth that will be Avatar: The Way of Water?
Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Visual Effects for October.
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
4. The Batman (Warner Bros)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
7. RRR (Variance Films)
8. Thor: Love and Thunder (Marvel Studios)
9. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Marvel Studios)
10. Jurassic World: Dominion (Universal Pictures)
Other contenders (alphabetical)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
Black Adam (Warner Bros)
Fantastic Beasts: Secrets of Dumbledore (Warner Bros)
Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)
Nope (Universal Pictures)
Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM)
Uncharted (Sony Pictures)
Wendell & Wild (Netflix)
Photo courtesy of 20th Century Studios