2023 TIFF People’s Choice Award Predictions: Who Will Boost Their Best Picture Chances?

The 48th Toronto International Film Festival is just about to wrap up, closing 11 days of films, director-driven Q&A, and a slightly muted version of what is a traditionally star-studded, glitzy affair. That is, of course, due to the ongoing WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes as studios and the AMPTP continue to refuse to come to the table with an equitable agreement that will put writers and actors back to work with a fair deal.

While Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos won The Golden Lion, Venice’s top prize, it didn’t screen at TIFF, opting instead for a fast turnaround at Telluride. In fact, several major Venice players like Ferrari, Priscilla (Venice Best Actress winner Cailee Spaeny) and Maestro all skipped a stopover in Canada (and Colorado), opting instead for appearances at NYFF.

With none of those films in the running for the TIFF People’s Choice Award, the field is rather open and filled with former winners, freshman debuts and even the chance for an animated win take the award for the first time. Winners here are overwhelmingly Hollywood-driven films that eventually go onto Best Picture nominations and wins but TIFF voters choose a top three and from that list we sometimes see wild, outside choices that don’t fall into that category like Scarborough in 2021, Beans in 2020 and Angry Indian Goddesses in 2015. Will there be an outside pick like those this year?

Several films earned killer responses from audiences at their premium and public screenings and even certain press screenings snagged rare applause. Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction had its world premiere at TIFF and the response and word of mouth has been very good but there was some divisive chatter from Black moviegoers I talked to who felt that the film, a satire on Black trauma prose and skewering its white audiences, said that the movie “wasn’t for them.” It’s a legitimate grievance and one that, ironically, will likely be in its favor. The premiere screening I went to, largely made up of a white audience, ate it up. Because, as those film lovers said, it’s largely geared to white audiences. It should be noted though that esteemed critics Robert Daniels and Jourdain Searles raved the film so word of mouth can be more anecdotal than evidence of something larger.

Ava DuVernay’s Origin may have earned some powerful reactions and responses but the public screening I attended was less than 75% capacity at best. The continued interest after its initial screening (coming in quickly after its Venice debut) was waning but there was barely a dry eye in the house. Could that be enough to push it to top 3 status?

The same can’t be said about TIFF’s opening night film, The Boy and the Heron. Historical in that it’s the first animated film to open the festival but also wasn’t a world premiere (the film had already opened in Japan earlier this summer) is remarkable and the anticipation for (what we thought was) Hayao Miyazaki’s last film found sellout crowds to the first night’s two showings and continued fervor for subsequent ones.

James Hawes’ One Life was another tear-filled winner with the audience and definitely feels like a contender despite still not having a distributor to do anything with a substantial prize like this as we dive head first into awards season. Same goes for Hit Man, Sing Sing (major standing ovation here but star Colman Domingo was able to attend and received the TIFF Tribute Award for Performance for it) and His Three Daughters; all films that played through the roof but still don’t have a home. One major benefit for One Life, the story of Nicholas Winton (played by Anthony Hopkins) who orchestrated the rescue of 669 children faced with execution at the hand of the Nazis, was the in audience appearance of some of those survivors. Hard to imagine that heart-string tugging won’t have real impact.

A pair of Oscar-winning directors also have a good shot at the People’s Choice Award; Alexander Payne with The Holdovers and Taika Waititi with Next Goal Wins. Both films played like gangbusters with audiences at multiple screenings and in large venues. While Payne hasn’t had a film place in the TIFF top 3, Waititi is a former winner here with 2017’s Jojo Rabbit. Despite Next Goal Wins‘ tumultuous production and years-long delays, none of that seemed to matter to moviegoers who cheered through multiple scenes.

Netflix has done well here, with appearances in the top 3 in four of the last five years (although, like at the Oscars, have yet to snag the top slot) and this year, added screenings of Rustin and Nyad, both of which premiered at Telluride, could land them in there again. I’d lean to Rustin here and wouldn’t it be wild if Colman Domingo’s Sing Sing also made the cut?

Both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest were already on their third major festival coming into TIFF after their top tier wins at Cannes and explosive presence at Telluride (Anatomy had to book a 5^th screening after the 4^th sold out at the Herzog Theatre) but will audiences want something more fresh, more of a TIFF discovery? It’s certainly not a requirement, as previous winners like The King’s Speech, Three Billboards and Belfast have shown. But we definitely have good examples of films that began at TIFF and the People’s Choice win kicked off their fall campaign, like Green Book, Jojo Rabbit and The Fabelmans did.

Other films possibly in the mix? The Burial, Shayda, Close Your Eyes, Sleep. The flop story of the festival? Actors turned directors. Michael Keaton’s Knox Goes Away, Chris Pine’s Poolman, Kirsten Scott Thomas’ North Star and Patricia Arquette’s Gonzo Girl all debuted at TIFF, many of which were met with mixed reviews. Tony Goldwyn’s quiet debut Ezra sits at a fresh 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and Anna Kendrick’s Woman of the Hour truly pulled itself away from the group, snagging the biggest buy of the festival when Netflix scooped it up for a cool $11M.

Here’s how TIFF People’s Choice winners have performed at the Oscars since 2008:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire – Best Picture/Director/Screenplay winner
2009: Precious – Best Picture nominee/Screenplay winner
2010: The King’s Speech – Best Picture/Director/Actor/Screenplay winner
2011: Where Do We Go Now? – no Oscar nominations
2012: Silver Linings Playbook – Best Picture nominee/Actress winner
2013: 12 Years a Slave – Best Picture/Screenplay winner
2014: The Imitation Game – Best Picture nominee/Screenplay winner
2015: Room – Best Picture/Director nominee/Actress winner
2016: La La Land – Best Picture nominee/Director/Actress winner
2017: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri – Best Picture nominee/Actress/Supporting Actor winner
2018: Green Book – Best Picture/Supporting Actor/Screenplay winner
2019: Jojo Rabbit – Best Picture nominee/Screenplay winner
2020: Nomadland – Best Picture/Director/Actress winner
2021: Belfast – Best Picture nominee/Screenplay winner
2022: The Fabelmans – Best Picture nominee

2011 remains the sole anomaly in the TIFF/Oscar crossover but even more notable is that every other winner here went on to win at least one Oscar…except for The Fabelmans last year.

My predictions:

TIFF People’s Choice winner: American Fiction

Runners-up: One Life, The Boy and the Heron, Anatomy of a Fall