2024 Emmy Predictions in Drama, Comedy, Limited Series including Writing, Directing, Guest Acting

With voting for the 2024 Emmy nominations officially closed, it’s time to look at the categories to see which shows could make the biggest impact when the nominations are revealed next month.

Shōgun will surely see a huge number of nominations for its first season, especially now that it has moved into drama and will likely provide audiences with more seasons. It’s difficult to say the exact number, but expect FX’s newest drama to make a big splash in the performance categories as well as the writing and directing categories, where it could see at least two nominations in each. The show has gained momentum quickly over the past couple months, so it stands a huge shot at winning Drama Series later this year at the ceremony (if the series can manage the nomination, of course). Other series entering the mix like Mr. and Mrs. Smith and Fallout (both from Prime Video) will be tough contenders to go up against, as the past few months of television has given audiences so many good narratives it might be difficult for voters to decide where their loyalties lie.

The Bear and Hacks will be gunning for the most nominations in the comedy categories, both in their third seasons with previous Emmy wins under their belts. It will be more telling how the actual ceremony will go once the nominations are out, but it will be fun to see how many each show can grab. The Bear will surely take home a hefty handful from the guest categories alone, as its second season rolled out a red carpet almost every episode to the best guest stars of last year. Other series like Only Murders in the Building will make lovely alternates in the background battle happening behind these two juggernauts. A series to watch out for is I’m a Virgo, which has opted to go into comedy as opposed to the limited series categories, a choice that could pay off in the end.

Reality competition will heat up this year as The Traitors is likely to join the pool of nominees after its sophomore season had the attention of the entire season. The season announced its third season cast just a few weeks ago which will keep the name of the show on everyone’s lips heading into the next few months.

Based on the total number of submissions, here’s what to expect in each category:

• Drama lead actor and actress will both have 6 nominees (81 and 67 submissions, respectively)
• Drama supporting actor and actress will both have 7 nominees (217 and 194 submissions, respectively)
• Comedy lead actor and actress will both have 5 nominees (55 and 58 submissions, respectively)
• Comedy supporting actor and actress will both have 6 nominees (147 and 132 submissions, respectively)
• Limited series lead actor and actress will both have 5 nominees (70 and 62 nominees, respectively)
• Limited series supporting actor and actress will both have 7 nominees (171 and 137 submissions, respectively)
• For the writing categories, there will be 6 slots for drama, comedy, and limited series
• For the directing categories, there will be 6 slots for drama, comedy, and limited series 

Here are my predictions for 2024 Emmy nominations in drama, comedy, limited series and reality categories.

Outstanding Drama Series

• 1. Shōgun (FX)
• 2. The Crown (Netflix)
• 3. The Gilded Age (MAX)
• 4. Fallout (Prime Video)
• 5. Mr and Mrs Smith (Prime Video)
• 6. 3 Body Problem (Netflix)
• 7. The Curse (Showtime)
• 8. Loki (Disney+)

Other contenders: Hijack (AppleTV+); Law & Order: SVU (NBC); Slow Horses (AppleTV+); Tokyo Vice (MAX)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• 1. Walton Goggins, Fallout (Prime Video)
• 2. Cosmo Jarvis, Shōgun (Prime Video)
• 3. Donald Glover, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
• 4. Dominic West, The Crown (Netflix)
• 5. Hiroyuko Sanada, Shōgun (FX)
• 6. Colin Farrell, Sugar (AppleTV+)

Other contenders: Idris Elba, Hijack (AppleTV+); Nathan Fielder, The Curse (Showtime); Ben Mendelsohn, The New Look (AppleTV+); Morgan Spector, The Gilded Age (MAX)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• 1. Emma Stone, The Curse (Showtime)
• 2. Imelda Staunton, The Crown (Netflix)
• 3. Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show(AppleTV+)
• 4. Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age (MAX)
• 5. Maya Erskine, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
• 6.  Anna Sawai, Shōgun (FX)

Other contenders: Juliette Binoche, The New Look (AppleTV+); Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU (NBC); Rosamund Pike, The Wheel of Time (Prime Video); Ella Purnell, Fallout (Prime Video)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

• 1. Billy Crudup, The Morning Show(AppleTV+)
• 2. Jonathan Pryce, The Crown (Netflix)
• 3. Mark Duplass, The Morning Show(AppleTV+).
• 4. Ke Huy Quan, Loki (Disney+)
• 5. Tadanobu Asano, Shōgun (FX)
• 6. Khalid Abdalla, The Crown (Netflix)
• 7. Nathan Lane, The Gilded Age (MAX)
  
  Other contenders: Jovan Adepo, 3 Body Problem (Netflix); Takehiro Hira, Shōgun (FX); Jack Lowden, Slow Horses (AppleTV+); Benny Safdie, The Curse (Showtime); Owen Wilson, Loki (Disney+)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

• 1. Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown (Netflix)
• 2. Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age (MAX)
• 3. Lesley Manville, The Crown (Netflix)
• 4. Juliana Margulies, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
• 5. Cynthia Nixon, The Gilded Age (MAX)
• 6. Amy Ryan, Sugar (AppleTV+)
• 7. Greta Lee, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)

Other contenders: Nicole Beharie, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Audra McDonald, The Gilded Age (MAX); Holland Taylor, The Morning Show (AppleTV+); Kristen Scott Thomas, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Comedy Series

• 1. The Bear (FX)
• 2. Hacks (MAX)
• 3. Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• 4. Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• 5. Palm Royale (AppleTV+)
• 6. Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
• 7. What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
• 8. The Gentleman (Netflix)

Other contenders: I’m a Virgo (Prime Video); Girls5Eva (Netflix); Reservation Dogs (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• 1. Jeremy Allen White, The Bear (FX)
• 2. Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• 3. Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• 4. Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
• 5. Theo James, The Gentlemen (Netflix)

Other contenders: Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows (FX); Jharrel Jerome, I’m a Virgo (Prime Video); D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs (FX)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• 1. Jean Smart, Hacks (MAX) 
• 2. Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (FX)
• 3. Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC) 
• 4. Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale (AppleTV+)
• 5. Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu) 

Other contenders: Renée Elise Goldsberry, Girls5Eva (Netflix); Devery Jacobs, Reservation Dogs (FX); Maya Rudolph, Loot (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• 1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear (FX)
• 2. Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• 3. Paul W. Downs, Hacks (MAX)
• 4. Paul Rudd, Only Murders in the Building(Hulu)
• 5. Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
• 6. Richard Lewis, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)

Other contenders: Lionel Bryce, The Bear (FX); Carl Clemons-Hopkins, Hacks (MAX); Chris Perfetti, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

• 1. Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• 2. Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• 3. Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• 4. Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (MAX)
• 5. Allison Janney, Palm Royale (AppleTV+)
• 6. Lisa Ann Walter, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Other contenders: Carol Burnett, Palm Royale (AppleTV+); Abby Elliott, The Bear(FX); Molly Gordon, The Bear (FX)

Outstanding Limited Series

• 1. Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
• 2. True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
• 3. Fargo (FX)
• 4. Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
• 5. Ripley (Netflix)

Other contenders: Expats (Prime Video); Fellow Travelers (Showtime); Feud: Capote v the Swans (FX); Griselda (Netflix); The Sympathizer (MAX)

Outstanding Television Movie

• 1. The Great Lillian Hall (HBO)
• 2. Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie (Peacock)
• 3. The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial (Paramount+)
• 4. Scoop (Netflix)
• 5. Red, White, and Royal Blue (Prime Video)

Other contenders: Finestkind (Paramount+), Música (Prime Video), Unfrosted (Netfix)

Outstanding Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• 1. Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer (Netflix) 
• 2. Andrew Scott, Ripley (Netflix)
• 3. Jon Hamm, Fargo (FX)
• 4. Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
• 5. Pierce Brosnan, The Great Lillian Hall (HBO)

Other contenders: Michael Douglas, Franklin (AppleTV+); Tom Hollander, Feud: Capote v the Swans (FX); David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves (Paramount+): Tony Shalhoub, Mr. Monk’s Last Case (Peacock)

Outstanding Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• 1. Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country(HBO)
• 2. Jessica Lange, The Great Lillian Hall (HBO)
• 3. Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
• 4. Juno Temple, Fargo (FX)
• 5. Kate Winslet, The Regime (HBO) 

Other contenders: Nicole Kidman, Expats (Prime Video); Julianne Moore, Mary & George (STARZ); Naomi Watts, Feud: Capote v the Swans (FX)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• 1. Robert Downey Jr, The Sympathizer (MAX)
• 2. Finn Bennett, True Detective: Night Country(HBO)
• 3. Treat Williams, Feud: Capote v the Swans(FX)
• 4. Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
• 5. Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
• 6. Joe Keery, Fargo (FX)
• 7. Hugh Grant, The Regime (HBO) 

Other contenders: Hugh Grant, The Regime (HBO); John Hawkes, True Detective: Night Country (HBO); Barry Keoghan, Masters of the Air (AppleTV+);

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

• 1. Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
• 2. Lily Gladstone, Under the Bridge (Hulu)
• 3. Diane Lane, Feud: Capote v the Swans (FX)
• 4. Kathy Bates, The Great Lillian Hall (HBO)
• 5. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Fargo (FX)
• 6. Sandra Oh, The Sympathizer (MAX)
• 7. Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country(HBO)

Other contenders: Dakota Fanning, Ripley (Netflix);  Riley Keough, Under the Bridge (Hulu); Lily Rabe, The Great Lillian Hall (HBO); Chloë Sevigny, Feud: Capote v the Swans (FX)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series:

• 1. ”A Dream of a Dream” – Shōgun (FX)
• 2. ”Ritz” – The Crown (Netflix)
• 3. ”The Abyss of Life” – Shōgun (FX)
• 4. ”A Breakup” – Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
• 5. ”The End” – Fallout (Prime Video)
• 6. ”In Terms of Winning and Losing” – The Gilded Age (MAX)
• 7. ”Land of Enchantment” – The Curse (Showtime)

Other contenders: “First Date” – Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video); “A Dream of a Dream” – Shōgun (FX)

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series:

• 1. ”Bulletproof” – Hacks (MAX)
• 2. ”Fishes” – The Bear (FX)
• 3. ”Career Day” – Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• 4. ”Opening Night” – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
• 5. ”Pride Parade” – What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
• 6. ”Thirty” – Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Other contenders: “Space for Everyone” – Loot (AppleTV+); “God U.” – Gen V (Prime Video)

Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series:

• 1. Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
• 2. Ripley (Netflix)
• 3. ”You’re Wonderful” – Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
• 4. ”The Tragedy of the Commons” – Fargo (FX)
• 5. ”Introduction to Chemistry” – Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)

Other contenders: Expats (Prime Video); Feud: Capote v the Swans (FX)

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series:

• 1. ”Anjin” – Jonathan van Tulleken, Shōgun (FX)
• 2. “The End” – Jonathan Nolan, Fallout (Prime Video)
• 3. “Crimson Sky” – Frederick E.O. Toye, Shōgun (FX)
• 4.  “A Breakup” – Donald Glover, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
• 5. “Sleep, Dearie, Sleep” – Stephen Daldry, The Crown (Netflix)
• 6. “In Terms of Winning and Losing” – Michael Engler, The Gilded Age (MAX)
• 7. “Tomorrow is Tomorrow” – Charlotte Brändström, Shōgun (FX)

Other contenders: “Countdown” – Derek Tsang, 3 Body Problem (Netflix); “Green Queen” – Nathan Fielder, The Curse (Showtime); “The Overview Effect” – Mimi Leder, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series:

• 1. “Fishes” – Christopher Storer, The Bear (FX)
• 2. “Just For Laughs” – Lucia Aniello, Hacks (MAX)
• 3. “Honeydew” – Ramy Youssef, The Bear (FX)
• 4. “Yes, And” – Paul W. Downs, Hacks (MAX)
• 5. “Party” – Randall Einhorn, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• 6. “I’m the Pappy” – Mary Lou Belli, The Ms Pat Show (BET+)

Other contenders: “No Lessons Learned” – Jeff Schaffer, Curb Your Enthusiasm; Boots Riley, I’m a Virgo (Prime Video); “The Whole Truth” – Steve Boyum, Gen V (Prime Video)

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series:

• 1. Steve Zaillian, Ripley (Netflix)
• 2. “Episode 1” – Weronika Tofilksa, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
• 3. “Death Wish” – Park Chan-wook, The Sympathizer (MAX)
• 4. Issa López, True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
• 5. “The Tragedy of the Commons” – Noah Hawley, Fargo (FX)

Other contenders: Lulu Wang, Expats (Prime Video); “Pilot” – Gus Van Sant, Feud: Capote v the Swans (FX); “You’re Wonderful” – Daniel Minahan, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series:

• 1. Michael Emerson, Fallout – “The Target”(Prime Video)
• 2. John Turturro, Mr. and Mrs. Smith – “Second Date”(Prime Video)
• 3. Ron Perlman, Mr. and Mrs. Smith – “Do You Want Kids?” (Prime Video)
• 4. Wagner Moura, Mr. and Mrs. Smith – “Double Date” (Prime Video)
• 5. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Elsbeth – “Reality Shock” (CBS)

Other contenders Kyle MacLacklan, Fallout – “The End” : ; Tracy Letts, Winning Time – “The New World” (HBO)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series:

• 1. Claire Foy, The Crown – “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” (Netflix)
• 2. Michael Coel, Mr. and Mrs. Smith – “Infidelity” (Prime Video)
• 3. Sharon Horgan, Mr. and Mrs. Smith – “First Vacation” (Prime Video)
• 4. Sarah Paulson, Mr. and Mrs. Smith – “Couples Therapy (Naked & Afraid)” (Prime Video)
• 5. Jane Krakoswki, Elsbeth – “A Classic New York Character” (CBS)

Other contenders: Marcia Gay Harden, The Morning Show – “Update Your Priors” (AppleTV+); Parker Posey, Mr. and Mrs. Smith – “Double Date” (Prime Video)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series:

• 1. Jon Bernthal, The Bear – “Fishes” (FX)
• 2. Will Poulter, The Bear – “Honeydew” (FX)
• 3. Ryan Gosling, Saturday Night Live  – “Ryan Gosling/Chris Stapleton”(ABC)
• 4. John Mulaney, The Bear – “Fishes” (FX)
• 5. Bob Odenkirk, The Bear  – “Fishes” (FX)
• 6. Christopher Macdonald, Hacks – “Par for the Course” (MAX)

Other contenders: Jerry Seinfeld, Curb Your Enthusiasm – “No Lessons Learned” (HBO)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series: 

• 1. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Bear – “Fishes” (FX)
• 2. Olivia Colman, The Bear – “Forks” (FX)
• 3. Sarah Paulson, The Bear – “Fishes” (FX)
• 4. J. Smith Cameron, Hacks – “The Deborah Vance Christmas Spectacular” (MAX)
• 5. Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live – “Maya Rudolph/Vampire Weekend” (NBC)
• 6. Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live – “Kristen Wiig/RAYE” (NBC)

Other contenders: Christina Hendricks, Hacks – “Par for the Course” (MAX); Lily Gladstone, Reservation Dogs – “Dig” (FX)

Outstanding Reality Competition Program: 

• 1. The Traitors (Peacock)
• 2. Survivor (CBS)
• 3. RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV)
• 4. The Amazing Race (CBS)
• 5. Top Chef (Bravo)

Other contenders: Squid Game: The Challenge (Netflix); The Golden Bachelor (ABC)

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Tyler Doster

Tyler is the TV Awards Editor for AwardsWatch and from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. He’s been obsessed with movies and the oscars since he was about 14. He enjoys reading, but even more, talking about Amy Adams more and will, at any given moment, bring up her Oscar snub for Arrival. The only thing he spends more time on than watching TV is sitting on Twitter. If you ever want to discuss the movie Carol at length, he’s your guy. You can find Tyler at @wordswithtyler

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