2024 Emmy Predictions: The Wide Open Drama Series Race

Where we’ve seen an increase in the submissions for Drama categories at the Emmys for the past few years, this year’s submissions will see considerably less in each category. Last year’s strikes from both SAG-AFTRA and WGA, in addition to beloved dramas like Succession and Better Call Saul ending their runs, saw a decrease in the number of dramas competing for Emmys this year. Once the ballots come out and the number of submissions is known for each category, it will be easier to predict exact nominations as that will determine the number of nominees in certain categories, including Outstanding Drama Series.

Not many returning shows that have a chance with the Television Academy will be back for this year’s Emmys, but HBO/MAX has a contender in Julian Fellowes’ The Gilded Age, a series that can provide more conflict in a glance than many dramas ever aspire towards. With a cast that includes Carrie Coon, Christine Baranski, and Cynthia Nixon, it stands a good chance of receiving its first nomination in the category. Something fun about the pool of nominees being slightly lessened is that other shows are receiving deserved attention. It’s HBO/MAX’s sole contender in the drama field, a statistic that doesn’t feel real given the history of the Emmys. Its first season was nominated for one award, Outstanding Production Design, for which it did win. The last time The Gilded Age came on in 2022, it wasn’t nominated in the Series category, but who could be surprised? It’s a slow drama that was competing with shows like Succession, Squid Game, and Yellowjackets. They’re not necessarily better, but they were buzzier and overshadowed the January premiere of MAX’s drama that year. Slow Horses is a Gary Oldman-led show gaining popularity that could find success with the Television Academy for its third season, even as a series that has never before received a nomination from the voting body before. 

The Morning Show will likely make a return to the Emmys for its third season, including an almost-guaranteed spot in this category. Nominations will likely spotlight a high number for the AppleTV+ series, so look forward to it coming back to battle it out. The biggest returning player of the year is Netflix’s The Crown, a series that boasts 21 Emmys going into its final run for awards since the series ended in December. The series will surely make a huge dent in its number of nominations, so it only makes sense for it to be a lock in Outstanding Drama Series, especially as a previous winner of this category. 

Netflix will also compete with 3 Body Problem this year, their grand science fiction series that has been gaining attention and viewers since its release, but will voters flock to a genre show? Grandiose shows have a bigger chance this year going against typical drama fare. Another freshman series likely to get in for the same reason, amongst others, is Prime Video’s Fallout, which just premiered all episodes last week and has been spreading word-of-mouth attention as well as eyes from lovers of the game series. The series boasts incredible world building and fantastic performances, so voters could keep the wasteland in their mind when thinking about the year in television. Showtime’s The Curse, which has somehow found its way into the drama categories instead of limited series, will also likely score a nomination considering its leads, Nathan Fielder and recent Oscar winner (for a second time) Emma Stone. Mr and Mrs Smith will also be competing in drama this year and a stellar first season could propel Donald Glover and Maya Erskine to the forefront of the nomination ballots. 

Disney+ will look for nominations in Loki’s second season, which stands a chance of grabbing a few along the way, but might not find enough strength in its campaign to get the Series nomination. Sugar could find an audience in the coming weeks, but is more of a threat with Colin Farrell in the lead role. Perhaps the series gets a nomination there, but it doesn’t seem likely it will get one here. Another AppleTV+ series competing here is Hijack, which also seems to be more of a contender in the lead actor category than it does competing in Series, but these are the same voters who could give The Morning Show double digit nominations. The New Look is on AppleTV+, but doesn’t seem tailored to receive much attention from this voting body, nor will it if Apple lets it go without much promotion (the series premiered in February and its viewership doesn’t translate well through social media engagement, if that’s anything to go by). Prime Video has a competitor in The Wheel of Time, but likely will throw most of the weight behind lead actress Rosamund Pike for her performance in the series.

This year’s awards are poised to be a fascinating set of nominees that won’t feel as crowded as usual. Stay tuned for Comedy Series predictions next week and more as we dive into the acting categories.

Here are my predictions for Outstanding Drama Series nominations at the 2024 Emmys:

• 3 Body Problem (Netflix)
• The Crown (Netflix)
• The Curse (Showtime)
• Fallout (Prime Video)
• The Gilded Age (MAX)
• Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
• The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
• Slow Horses (AppleTV+)

Other contenders: Hijack (AppleTV+); Loki (Disney+); The Wheel of Time (Prime Video)