2024 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (August)

Barbenheimer strikes again, as Barbie and Oppenheimer each rise to the top spot of the respective screenplay categories, original and adapted.

I know there is still a lot of debate about where Barbie will land and that will probably remain for a few more months until Warner Bros reveals where it’s going to push Greta Gerwig’s billion dollar blockbuster. There’s an argument for both original and adapted and examples where the Academy has disagreed with a filmmaker and/or studio’s choice. Either way, Barbie should still make either lineup even though original seems a bit more competitive.

This time next month we’ll have massive premieres from Venice, Telluride and Toronto to give us more contenders yet to be seen.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for August 2023.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (▲)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (▼)
3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (-)
4. The Zone of Interest (A24) (-)
5. Dune Part Two (Warner Bros) (-)
6. Priscilla (A24) (-)
7. Society of the Snow (Netflix) (▲)
8. The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (-)
9. The Killer (Netflix) (-)
10. Nyad (Netflix) (▲)

Next up: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate) (▲), The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios) (▲), Ferrari (NEON) (▲), Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics) (▲), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) (▼)

Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases: The Actor (NEON), BlackBerry (IFC Films), The Boys in the Boat (MGM), Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics), Dumb Money (Sony Pictures), Earth Mama (A24), Eileen (NEON), Firebrand (MGM), Foe (Amazon Studios), The Nickel Boys (MGM/UAR/Orion Pictures), Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Mothers’ Instinct (NEON), Spaceman (Netflix), The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures), Wonka (Warner Bros)

Without U.S. distribution: The Collaboration (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Lee (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Without Blood (TBD)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Barbie (Warner Bros) (▲)
2. The Holdovers (Focus Features) (▼)
3. Past Lives (A24) (▼)
4. Saltburn (Amazon Studios) (▼)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) (▼)
6. May December (Netflix) (▲)
7. Maestro (Netflix) (▼)
8. Air (Amazon Studios) (▲)
9. Fair Play (Netflix) (▲)
10. The Iron Claw (A24) (▼)

Next up: Asteroid City (Focus Features) (▲), The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) (▲), Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) (▲), Rustin (Netflix) (▲), Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures) (▲)

Other contenders or possible 2024 releases: Blitz (Apple Original Films), Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures), The Burial (Amazon Studios), Cassandro (Amazon Studios), La Chimera (NEON), Civil War (A24), Fingernails (Apple Original Films), Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios), A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics), The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics), A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), A Different Man (TBD), Hitman (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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