2024 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (June)

Amazon/MGM has officially dated Rachel Morrison’s Flint Strong, written by Academy Award winner Barry Jenkins and starring Ryan Destiny and Academy Award nominee Brian Tyree Henry, for August 2024 and comes off the Adapted Screenplay list for this season.

Speaking of Adapted Screenplay, it’s feeling a bit up for grabs after top contenders like Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures), Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) and Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures). There should be room for Dune Part Two (Warner Bros) but this could be where Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse sneaks in if Best Picture is out of reach for the animated feature. Original Screenplay Oscar winner Sofia Coppola has Priscilla (A24, watch the teaser trailer here), based on the autobiography “Elvis and Me” by Priscilla Presley and Sandra Harmon. Netflix has done exceptionally well here, with seven nominations since 2017, three of those years being double nominations (2019, 2021, 2022) and two of them being the only nominations for the film: 2020’s The White Tiger and 2022’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. This year’s contenders for them here are The Killer, Nyad, Pain Hustlers, Society of the Snow and Spaceman. As I mentioned in my Supporting Actress predictions, the streamer’s The Piano Lesson had just begun production as the WGA strike was fully underway and it’s unclear whether they would be able to turn around the film for a 2023 release but it feels very unlikely.

If Celine Song gets in, and even this early it feels like a good bet, she’ll make Oscar history as it will be the first time that a film written solely by a non-white woman is nominated in Original Screenplay. OS is a category full of previous screenplay Oscar winners as contenders, including Ethan Coen with Drive-Away-Dolls (Focus Features) and Emerald Fennell with Saltburn (Amazon Studios).

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for June 2023.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
2. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
4. The Zone of Interest (A24)
5. Dune Part Two (Warner Bros)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
7. Priscilla (A24)
8. The Nickel Boys (MGM/UAR/Orion Pictures)
9. The Killer (Netflix)
10. The Color Purple (Warner Bros)

Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases: The Actor (NEON), Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate), The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios). BlackBerry (IFC Films), The Boys in the Boat (MGM), Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics), Dumb Money (Sony Pictures), Earth Mama (A24), Eileen (NEON), Ferrari (STX Entertainment), Firebrand (MGM), Foe (Amazon Studios), Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics), How Do You Live? (GKIDS), Nyad (Netflix), Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Mothers’ Instinct (NEON), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Society of the Snow (Netflix), Spaceman (Netflix), Strangers (Searchlight Pictures), The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures), Wonka (Warner Bros)

Without U.S. distribution: The Collaboration (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Lee (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Without Blood (TBD)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Holdovers (Focus Features)
2. Past Lives (A24)
3. Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
4. Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
6. Maestro (Netflix)
7. Barbie (Warner Bros)
8. The Iron Claw (A24)
9. May December (Netflix)
10. Fair Play (Netflix)

Other contenders or possible 2024 releases: Asteroid City (Focus Features), Blitz (Apple Original Films), Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures), The Burial (Amazon Studios), Cassandro (Amazon Studios), Challengers (MGM), La Chimera (NEON), Civil War (A24), Fingernails (Apple Original Films), Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios), How Do You Live? (GKIDS), A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics), May December (Netflix), Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics), Rustin (Netflix), Shirley (Netflix), Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures), A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), A Different Man (TBD), Hitman (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD)