2024 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (August)

Let’s take a look at how crucial the fall festival presence in Best Actress is, or at least offer a cross section for reference. Venice is an outstanding kickoff for lead actress contenders with the last seven years seeing 15 nominees hit the Lido first, including Cate Blanchett for TÀR, Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers, and Kristen Stewart in Spencer plus those who would translate it to an Oscar win: Emma Stone in La La Land, Frances McDormand twice (with Three Billboards and Nomadland) and Olivia Colman in The Favourite. This bodes well for Emma Stone in Poor Things and Cailee Spaeny in Priscilla.

Netflix alone is on a five-year streak here than began with Yalitzia Aparicio (Roma) and includes Scarlet Johansson (Marriage Story), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Volpi Cup winner Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman and Ana de Armas in Blonde this most recent season. Who can continue that streak this year? The easiest will be Carey Mulligan in Maestro, who, based the first teaser trailer and poster, is very much a co-lead with Bradley Cooper and not simply a ‘supporting wife.’

But Netflix has another ace up its sleeve in Best Actress in the form of four-time nominee Annette Bening. While her film NYAD isn’t premiering at Venice it will be at other fall festivals, including the mountain fest that also produces lots of Best Actress contenders as either their kickoff or runoff from Venice, like Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird, Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water and eventual Oscar winner Renée Zellweger in 2019’s Judy. Interestingly, Judy was the last film to skip Berlin/Cannes/Venice and start at Telluride to earn a Best Actress nod.

But what if you don’t even have a distributor but you have a festival run in search of one? Never fear, because that dilemma has turned into a golden opportunity several times. Pieces of a Woman and Jackie were acquired after Venice, TIFF premieres sold distributors on Still Alice, Rabbit Hole, The Wife and I, Tonya with Julianne Moore finally winning an Oscar on Sony Pictures Classics’ fast turnaround of Still Alice into a season-long steamroll for Moore.

This season’s big question mark is definitely Lee, starring Oscar winner Kate Winslet. The film is set for a TIFF premiere and looking to sell but who is the right fit for the biopic of war photographer Elizabeth ‘Lee’ Miller? NEON has its hands full with major contender Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Netflix has three contenders already and A24 has two. Could Best Actress Oscar whisperer SPC once again come through? At the moment they’re main contender is Jane Levy in A Little Prayer, but it seems like a longshot. They could also pick it up this year and hold until next like they did with Glenn Close in The Wife.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for August 2023.

1. Annette Bening – NYAD (Netflix) (▲)
2. Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) (▲)
3. Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix) (▲)
4. Margot Robbie – Barbie (Warner Bros) (▼)
5. Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▼)
6. Greta Lee – Past Lives (A24) (▼)
7. Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (▲)
8. Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla (A24) (-)
9. Natalie Portman – May December (Netflix) (-)
10. Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) (▲)

Next up:  Phoebe Dynevor – Fair Play (Netflix), Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Jane Levy – A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics), Trace Lysette – Monica (IFC Films), Helen Mirren – Golda (Bleecker Street), Saoirse Ronan – Foe (Amazon Studios) (▲), Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One (Focus Features) (▼), Alicia Vikander – Firebrand (Amazon Studios/MGM/UAR)

Lead or Supporting Dilemma: Uzo Aduba – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures), Jessica Chastain – Mothers Instinct (NEON), Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios), Aunjanue Ellis – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures), Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures), Anne Hathaway – Mothers Instinct (NEON), Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Sanaa Lathan – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures), Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix)

Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases:

• Uzo Aduba – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures)
• Juliette Binoche – The Pot au Feu/The Taste of Things (IFC Films)
• Jessie Buckley – Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
• Jessica Chastain – Mothers Instinct (NEON)
• Merve Dizdar – About Dry Grasses (Janus Films/Sideshow) (▼)
• Kirsten Dunst – Civil War (A24)
• Aunjanue Ellis – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures)
• Anne Hathaway – Mothers Instinct (NEON)
• Salma Hayek – Without Blood (Fremantle)
• Nicole Kidman – Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios)
• Sanaa Lathan – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures)
• Thomasin McKenzie – Eileen (NEON)
• Layla Mohammadi – The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Katy M. O’Brian – Love Lies Bleeding (A24)
• Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films)

Without U.S. distribution: Paula Beer – Stella. A Life (TBD), Cate Blanchett – The New Boy (TBD), Jessica Chastain – Memory (TBD), Patricia Clarkson – Lilly (TBD), Olivia Colman – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Jodie Comer – The End We Start From (TBD), Catherine Deneuve – Bernadette (TBD), Aunjanue Ellis – Origin (TBD, Vera Farmiga – Origin (TBA), Judy Greer – Eric Larue (TBD), Emilia Jones – Winner (TBD), Rooney Mara – La Cocina (TBD), Barbara Mori – Lost in the Night (TBD), Camila Morrone – Gonzo Girl (TBD), Kangana Ranaut – Emergency (TBD), Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun (TBD), Talia Ryder – Joika (TBD), Mia Wasikowska – Club Zero (TBD), Kate Winslet – Lee (TBD)

Photo: Liz Parkinson/Netflix