As I expected in May, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall and Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest were the top Cannes winners last month, earning the Palme d’Or and the Grand Prize, respectively, putting them in strong early positions as top Oscar prospects for both NEON and A24. This was NEON’s 4th Palme-winning film in a row, an astonishing feat (one of which resulted in a Best Picture win, 2019’s Parasite), and A24 just took home its first Best Picture win this season (Everything Everywhere All At Once) since 2016’s Moonlight.
As we eke just past mid-June, there are not only already a handful of contenders that have been seen (whether it’s from Sundance, Berlin, SXSW or Cannes) but some that have already been released like Past Lives, Air and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Last season’s Best Picture winner (EEAAO) was released in March, and before that CODA was a Sundance premiere with an August release. That’s all to say that I think we’ve really gotten past the ‘it’s too early to start predicting the Oscars’ when the landscape has already changed and the terra isn’t so firma anymore.
My Best Director and Best Picture top 10s aren’t very different than last month, and yes, it’s still crazy to have three films from Warner Bros and two from A24 all crowded together; they’re not all making it. But for now, and until we have the results of the Barbie–Oppenheimer wars, they’re all hanging in there.
Here are my 2024 Oscar Predictions in Best Director and Best Picture as of June 2023.
Other top contenders: Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios), Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON), Wes Anderson – Asteroid City (Focus Features), Luca Guadagnino – Challengers (MGM), Alice Rohrwacher – La Chimera (NEON), Hayao Miyazaki – How Do You Live? (GKIDS), Sean Durkin – The Iron Claw (A24), David Fincher – The Killer (Netflix), Ellen Kuras – Lee (TBD), Todd Haynes – May December (Netflix), Ridley Scott – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Sofia Coppola – Priscilla (A24), Joaquim Dos Santos/Kemp Powers/Justin K. Thompson – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
Other contenders or possible 2024 releases:
Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), Il Capitano (TBD), Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Joika (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD), The Pot au Feu (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD)
Other top contenders: Air (Amazon Studios), Anatomy of a Fall (NEON), Asteroid City (Focus Features), Challengers (MGM), La Chimera (NEON), How Do You Live? (GKIDS), The Iron Claw (A24), The Killer (Netflix), Lee (TBD), May December (Netflix), Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Priscilla (A24), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
Other contenders or possible 2024 releases:
Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), Il Capitano (TBD), Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Joika (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD), The Pot au Feu (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD)
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