2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (November)

The Gotham Awards and British Independent Film Awards have revealed their nominations, among the very first out of the gate this season where we find Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December) and Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry) among the actor names nominated for Outstanding Supporting Performance (a non-gendered category) at the Gothams. Jamie Foxx (They Cloned Tyrone) was also nominated but is not Oscar-eligible as his film wasn’t released in theaters ahead of its streaming debut.

The BIFAs doubled up on All of Us Strangers with both Paul Mescal and Jamie Bell earning nominations for Best Supporting Performance (also a non-gendered category). Mescal, who was nominated for Best Actor for 2022’s Aftersun, is among one of the very few possible returning nominees from last season. Bell has never been Oscar-nominated but got close for his 2000 breakthrough Billy Elliot, which earned him a BAFTA over eventual Oscar winner Russell Crowe in Gladiator.

However it breaks down, it’s going to be tough to get past the wall of previous nominees and winners that feel, we won’t say locked but, secure at this moment. Hopeful first timers like Bell, Howerton, Dominic Sessa (a co-lead in The Holdovers), Colman Domingo (The Color Purple), Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) and more should give good chase to the race.

Nominations for the Golden Globes will be announced on December 11, 2023 and the awards ceremony will be held on Sunday, January 7, 2024. The Screen Actors Guild will reveal their nominations on January 10 and the 30th SAG Awards will be held on February 24. Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for November 2023.

1. Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros)
2. Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
3. Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
5. Charles Melton – May December (Netflix)
6. Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
7. Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
8. Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios)
9. Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
10. Colman Domingo – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)

Next up: Jamie Bell – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures), Matt Damon – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures), Jacob Elordi – Priscilla (A24), Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (IFC Films), John Magaro – Past Lives (A24), Holt McCallany – The Iron Claw (A24), Peter Sarsgaard – Memory (Ketchup Entertainment)

Other contenders:

• Christopher Abbott – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios)
• Jon Bernthal – Origin (NEON)
• Austin Butler – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Jacob Elordi – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
• Matthew Goode – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
• Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Rhys Ifans – NYAD (Netflix)
• Chris Messina – Air (Amazon Studios)
• Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Tahar Rahim – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
• Glynn Turman – Rustin (Netflix)
• Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Ramy Youssef – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Photo by Chris Harris. Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures.