2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (August)

Was I wrong to take Emily Blunt out of my predictions last month? Yes. Is she back and all the way up to #2 now? Also yes. My mea culpa is complete.

As a contender, Oppenheimer feels pretty unstoppable right now and Blunt is surely going to benefit from what will be one of the film’s many double-digit nominations, but it’s also a performance and character that people love and cheer for in her big scene facing off with Jason Clarke’s rotten Roger Robb. Never nominated, Blunt has stood on the precipice of landing one a few times, or at least has deserved to, and she’s found the convergence of vehicle and reviews to get it.

I’m holding on, albeit a bit looser, to Taraji P. Henson and Danielle Brooks both getting in for the adaptation of the Tony-winning musical version of The Color Purple but with Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers), Viola Davis (Air) and frontrunner Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) it feels like one of those early predictions scenarios where several women of color look like prime contenders only to have the Academy pump the brakes. Supporting Actress has only once ever seen three Black actresses nominated (when winner Viola Davis, Naomie Harris and Octavia Spencer all got in for their 2016 films). Last year’s inclusion of Angela Bassett, Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu was certainly a step forward in welcoming a more diverse field, but then, they all ended up losing.

Netflix will have two previous Best Actress winners vying for a supporting spot with Julianne Moore (May December) and Jodie Foster (Nyad). Moore has been seen and seems to have the reviews, with Foster in a few weeks. Moore has yet to receive another nomination since her win for 2014’s Still Alice while Foster has earned just one more (Best Actress for 1994’s Nell) since her last win 32 years ago.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for August 2023.

1. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
2. Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (▲)
3. Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▼)
4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Focus Features) (▼)
5. Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▼)
6. Julianne Moore – May December (Netflix) (▼)
7. Viola Davis – Air (Amazon Studios) (▼)
8. Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (Amazon Studios) (-)
9. Jodie Foster – Nyad (Netflix) (-)
10. America Ferrera – Barbie (Warner Bros) (▲)

Next up: Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios) (▲), Penélope Cruz – Ferrari (NEON) (▲), Anne Hathaway – Eileen (NEON) (▲), Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest (A24) (NEW), Kaimana – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) (▲), Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) (▲), Lashana Lynch – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures) (▼), Rachel McAdams – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate) (▲), Audra McDonald – Rustin (Netflix) (▲), Tilda Swinton – The Killer (Netflix) (▲)

Lead or Supporting Dilemma: Uzo Aduba – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures), Jessica Chastain – Mothers Instinct (NEON), Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios), Aunjanue Ellis – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures), Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures), Anne Hathaway – Mothers Instinct (NEON), Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Sanaa Lathan – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures), Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix)

Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases:

• Uzo Aduba – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures)
• Jodi Balfour – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Kathy Burke – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Tantoo Cardinal – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
• Gemma Chan – The Actor (NEON)
• Jessica Chastain – Mother’s Instinct (NEON)
• Olivia Colman – Wonka (Warner Bros)
• Anna Diop – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• Aunjanue Ellis – The Nickel Boys (MGM) (▼)
• Aunjanue Ellis – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures)
• America Ferrera – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
• Anne Hathaway – Mother’s Instinct (NEON)
• Lily James – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Erin Kellyman – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Sanaa Lathan – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures)
• Patti LuPone – Beau Is Afraid (A24)
• Melissa McCarthy – The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney)
• Carey Mulligan – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
• Carey Mulligan – Spaceman (Netflix)
• Annie Murphy – Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
• Carrie Preston – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
• CCH Pounder – Rustin (Netflix)
• Florence Pugh – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Margaret Qualley – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Renate Reinsve – A Different Man (A24)
• Isabella Rossellini – La Chimera (NEON)
• Isabella Rossellini – Spaceman (Netflix)
• Sarah Silverman – Maestro (Netflix)
• Jurnee Smollett – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Hayley Squires – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Kristen Stewart – Love Lies Bleeding (A24)
• Maura Tierney – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Shailene Woodley – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Shailene Woodley – Ferrari (NEON)
• Alfre Woodward – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)

Without U.S. distribution: Patricia Arquette – Gonzo Girl (TBD), Eileen Atkins – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Melissa Barrera – The Collaboration (TBD), Mary J. Blige – Rob Peace (TBD), Helena Bonham Carter – One Life (TBD), Connie Britton – Winner (TBD), Jessie Buckley – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Marion Cotillard – Lee (TBD), Elsie Fisher – Memory (TBD), Gemma Jones – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Deborah Mailman – The New Boy (TBD), Maria Mashkova – Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Viktoria Miroshnichenko – Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Kathryn Newton – Winner (TBD), Lena Olin – One Life (TBD), Andrea Riseborough – Lee (TBD), Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (TBD), Joanna Scanlan – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Katherine Waterston – The End We Start From (TBD), Merritt Wever – Memory (TBD)