2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (September)

With Lily Gladstone (Apple’s Killers of the Flower Moon) officially over in Best Actress, Supporting Actress becomes one of the most wildly competitive categories of the year.

Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson (both from Warner Bros’ The Color Purple) remain the ‘to be seen’ holdouts (and likely the very last to be seen this season), and although I still feel strongly about them both, we have to look at what we know, what we’ve seen. Debuting at Telluride, Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers (Focus Features) found the best notices in the film not going to its leading man, Paul Giamatti, but for Da’Vine Joy Randolph as an empathetic nurse with a story all her own. Randolph, who made a big impression with 2019’s Dolemite Is My Name and Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, makes a triumphant rise this month.

A fantastic batch of debuts on the charts for September with both Niecy Nash-Betts and Audra McDonald in Ava DuVernay’s Venice/TIFF player Origin (NEON), Erika Alexander in Cord Jefferson’s TIFF Audience People’s Choice winner American Fiction (MGM) and, in a category placement surprise, Academy Award winner Juliette Binoche in Trần Anh Hùng’s Cannes-winning The Taste of Things (IFC Films). Binoche previously won in this category for 1996’s The English Patient but hasn’t been nominated in over 20 years (2000’s Chocolat, in Best Actress).

While it’s still early, there is a possible sneak attack in the works. Sandra Hüller finds herself campaigned in Best Actress for Justine Triet’s Cannes Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) and in Supporting Actress for Jonathan Glazer’s Cannes Grand Prize winner The Zone of Interest (A24). Nearly a co-lead in Zone, Hüller could find herself with double nominations come January in the two highest profile non-English language titles of the year. Zone is the official International Feature Film entry for the U.K. bur France opted for The Taste of Things instead of Anatomy, a decision that rankled Oscar fans and pundits alike, but Triet even more. The director took to Instagram to balk at the choice, calling Taste “boring.” It’s hard to say if that will have any negative impact on Hüller or the film, but my guess is that it won’t.

Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for September 2023.

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Focus Features) (▲)
2. Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▲)
3. Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (-)
4. Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (▼)
5. Julianne Moore – May December (Netflix) (▲)
6. Jodie Foster – Nyad (Netflix) (▲)
7. Viola Davis – Air (Amazon Studios)
8. Sandra Hüller – The Zone of Interest (A24) (▲)
9. Penélope Cruz – Ferrari (NEON) (▲)
10. America Ferrera – Barbie (Warner Bros) (-)

Next up: Erika Alexander – American Fiction (MGM) (NEW), Niecy Nash-Betts – Origin (NEON) (NEW), Juliette Binoche – The Taste of Things (IFC Films) (NEW), Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures), Anne Hathaway – Eileen (NEON), Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Lashana Lynch – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), Rachel McAdams – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate), Audra McDonald – Origin (NEON) (NEW), Audra McDonald – Rustin (Netflix), Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (Amazon Studios) (▼)

Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases:

• Jodi Balfour – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Tantoo Cardinal – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
• Olivia Colman – Wonka (Warner Bros)
• America Ferrera – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Lily James – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Kaimana – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
• Patti LuPone – Beau Is Afraid (A24)
• Melissa McCarthy – The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney)
• Carrie Preston – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
• CCH Pounder – Rustin (Netflix)
• Florence Pugh – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Isabella Rossellini – La Chimera (NEON)
• Sarah Silverman – Maestro (Netflix)
• Tilda Swinton – The Killer (Netflix)
• Maura Tierney – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Merritt Wever – Memory (MUBI)
• Shailene Woodley – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Shailene Woodley – Ferrari (NEON)

Without U.S. distribution: Andrea Riseborough – Lee (TBD)