2025 Emmy Predictions: ‘Dying for Sex,’ ‘Say Nothing’ and ‘The Penguin’ are Anything but Limited
Limited series is, arguably, the best set of categories at the Emmys – the nominees are guaranteed to (mostly, save a few anthology series) change yearly!
Netflix’s Adolescence will be a huge contender this year in these categories, one year after Netflix did well with Baby Reindeer. The four part limited series will be a huge player in almost every major category, especially directing, where the series currently leads the back as the top contender. It will also surely make its way into Outstanding Limited Series and could see success there, but it will face stiff competition from shows like Dying for Sex. The Michelle Williams-led cancer dramedy will be the biggest player in the one category Adolescence has no submissions for: Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie. While Oscar winning actress Cate Blanchett will likely also be in this crowd, Williams is the current favorite to win. Cristin Milioti from The Penguin will be a top contender in the category as well, while her co-star Colin Farrell is guaranteed a spot in Lead Actor in a Limited Series for his portrayal of the titular Penguin.
As aforementioned, Adolescence has already garnered favor in the directing category for its technical achievements, but the series will also be joined by other top-notch episodes and series. In the writing and directing categories for Limited Series/TV Movie, a series may either be submitted in full if written or directed by one person, or choose to submit individual episodes to highlight achievement by multiple individuals from the same show. Series like Adolescence were written by one person and directed by one person, so it only has one submission, whereas a series like Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story has multiple submissions in both categories. Disclaimer, fully directed by Alfonso Cuarón, will surely find itself nominated in the directing category. It will likely be joined by MAX’s TV Movie Mountainhead, directed by Jesse Armstrong, and episodes from Dying for Sex and The Penguin.
Here’s a breakdown of the submissions for each category and how many nominees there will be this year. In the acting categories the numbers stay consistent across gender lines regardless of the number of submissions.
Limited Lead Actor – 48 (5)
Limited Lead Actress – 53 (5)
Limited Supporting Actor – 124 (6)
Limited Supporting Actress – 105 (6)
Limited Directing – 101 (6)
Limited Writing – 71 (5)
Here are my predictions for nominations in series, acting, writing and directing for the Limited Series/TV Movie categories at the 2025 Emmys.
Outstanding Limited Series
Adolescence (Netflix)
Disclaimer (AppleTV+)
Dying for Sex (FX)
The Penguin (HBO/MAX)
Say Nothing (FX)
Other contenders: Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix); Black Mirror (Netflix); Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+)
Outstanding TV Movie
Another Simple Favor (Prime Video)
Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock)
Mountainhead (HBO/MAX)
Out of My Mind (Disney+)
Rebel Ridge (Netflix)
Other contenders: G20 (Prime Video)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Colin Farrell, The Penguin (HBO/MAX)
Stephen Graham, Adolescence (Netflix)
Paul Giamatti, Black Mirror (Netflix)
Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+)
Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)
Other contenders: Nicholas Alexander Chavez, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix); Colman Domingo, The Madness (Netflix); Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief (AppleTV+)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer (AppleTV+)
Cristin Milioti, The Penguin (HBO/MAX)
Lola Pettigrew, Say Nothing (FX)
Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex (FX)
Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock)
Other contenders: Kaitlyn Dever, Apple Cider Vinegar (Netflix); Meghan Fahy, Sirens (Netflix); Natalie Portman, Lady in the Lake (AppleTV+)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Erin Doherty, Adolescence (Netflix)
Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin (HBO/MAX)
Lesley Manville, Disclaimer (AppleTV+)
Christine Tremarco, Adolescence (Netflix)
Chloë Sevigny, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)
Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex (FX)
Other contenders: Julianne Moore, Sirens (Netflix); Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+); Angela Bassett, Zero Day (Netflix)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)
Anthony Boyle, Say Nothing (FX)
Owen Cooper, Adolescence (Netflix)
Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex (FX)
Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+)
Ashley Walters, Adolescence (Netflix)
Other contenders: Rhenzy Feliz, The Penguin (HBO/MAX); Luke Kirby, Out of My Mind (Disney+); Wagner Moura, Dope Thief (AppleTV+)
Outstanding Writing for a TV Movie or Limited Series
Adolescence (Netflix)
Disclaimer (AppleTV+)
“Good Value Diet Soda” – Dying for Sex (FX)
Mountainhead (HBO/MAX)
“A Great or Little Thing” – The Penguin (HBO/MAX)
Other contenders: “The People in the Dirt” – Say Nothing (FX); A Very Royal Scandal (Prime Video); “Bases Loaded” – Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+)
Outstanding Directing for a TV Movie or Limited Series
Adolescence (Netflix)
Disclaimer (AppleTV+)
“It’s Not That Serious” – Dying for Sex (FX)
Mountainhead (HBO/MAX)
“After Hours” – The Penguin (HBO/MAX)
“The People in the Dirt” – Say Nothing (FX)
Other contenders: “The Verdict” – Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+): “Cent’anni” – The Penguin (HBO/MAX); Lady in the Lake (AppleTV+)
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