2025 Emmy Predictions: The Limited Series/TV Movie Competition Is Not Child’s Play

This year’s limited series race seems to have been wrapped up last month when Netflix dropped Adolescence, the shockingly raw four episode limited series that follows the murder investigation of a young girl by her fellow male classmate and told in single-take episodes. The series has quickly risen to the #4 most-watched English-language television series in Netflix history. 

Netflix can expect to dominate the limited series categories now that Adolescence has been released. It will surely be nominated for every category it’s eligible in, including Outstanding Limited Series, Lead Actor and Supporting Actor – which is fascinating, having the titular adolescent in the supporting category – and Supporting Actress. The streamer also has the latest season of Black Mirror competing amongst the limited series categories for its anthology style, so expect a nomination for Paul Giamatti, with a likely nom tossed to Emma Corrin as well. 

The Penguin, Max’s entry into this particular race, was once the frontrunner but has fallen behind after Adolescence was released. Colin Farrell has a particularly strong case for Lead Actor still, however, so it will be a race between him and Stephen Graham for that category. Others that could be seen include Jake Gyllenhaal, who’s here for Presumed Innocent, and Anthony Boyle for the quiet contender Say Nothing. Michelle Williams will likely return to the Emmys for her performance in Dying for Sex, an incredibly intimate portrait of one woman’s investigation to find herself before death. She’s going to be a huge contender this year for her performance, but will find herself going up against Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) and Cristin Milioti (Black Mirror). 

The supporting categories will be filled with performers from the aforementioned shows, with Dying for Sex possibly having two entries into the supporting actress category in Jenny Slate and Sissy Spacek. Adolescence will likely see Owen Cooper in supporting actor with Christine Tremarco and Erin Doherty helping round out the supporting actress category. Emma Corrin will likely return to the Emmys thanks to her performance in Black Mirror, joined in the category by Disclaimer’s Lesley Manville. Supporting Actor will also see Rob Delaney and Jay Duplass both competing for Dying for Sex with a strong possibility that both receive nominations for the series.

Here are my predictions for the Limited Series/TV Movie nominations at the 2025 Emmys: 

Outstanding Limited Series

Adolescence (Netflix) 

Disclaimer (AppleTV+)

Dying for Sex (FX)

The Penguin (Max)

Say Nothing (FX)

Other contenders: Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix); Zero Day (Netflix); Black Mirror (Netflix)

Outstanding TV Movie

Another Simple Favor (Prime Video)

Mountainhead (HBO)

G20 (Prime Video)

Rebel Ridge (Netflix)

Summer of 69 (Hulu)

Other contenders: Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock); You’re Cordially Invited (Prime Video)

Outstanding Actor in a Limited Series

Anthony Boyle, Say Nothing (FX)

Steve Carrell, Mountainhead (HBO)

Colin Farrell, The Penguin (Max)

Paul Giamatti, Black Mirror (Netflix)

Stephen Graham, Adolescence (Netflix)

Other contenders: Robert De Niro, Zero Day (Netflix); Kevin Kline, Disclaimer (AppleTV+); Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+); Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)

Outstanding Actress in a Limited Series

Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer (AppleTV+)

Rashida Jones, Black Mirror (Netflix)

Cristin Milioti, The Penguin (Max)

Julianne Moore, Sirens (Netflix)

Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex (FX)

Other contenders: Natalie Portman, Lady in the Lake (AppleTV+): Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock): Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+)

Supporting Actor in a Limited Series

Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)

Owen Cooper, Adolescence (Netflix)

Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex (FX)

Jay Duplass, Dying for Sex (FX)

Jason Schwartzman, Mountainhead (HBO)

Ashley Walters, Adolescence (Netflix)

Other contenders: Jesse Plemons, Zero Day (Netflix); Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent (AppleTV+); Liev Schreiber, The Perfect Couple (Netflix); Kodi Smit-McPhee, Disclaimer (AppleTV+)

Supporting Actress in a Limited Series

Emma Corrin, Black Mirror (Netflix)

Erin Doherty, Adolescence (Netflix)

Lesley Manville, Disclaimer (AppleTV+)

Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin (Max)

Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex (FX)

Christine Tremarco, Adolescence (Netflix)

Other contenders: Angela Bassett, Zero Day (Netflix); *Sissy Spacek, Dying for Sex (FX)

*Sissy Spacek was not officially submitted for consideration by FX, she can submit individually but hasn’t at this time

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Tyler Doster

Tyler is the TV Awards Editor for AwardsWatch and from Tuscaloosa, Alabama. He’s been obsessed with movies and the oscars since he was about 14. He enjoys reading, but even more, talking about Amy Adams more and will, at any given moment, bring up her Oscar snub for Arrival. The only thing he spends more time on than watching TV is sitting on Twitter. If you ever want to discuss the movie Carol at length, he’s your guy. You can find Tyler at @wordswithtyler

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