This will be the year of HBO when it comes to discussing the drama contenders at the Emmys. HBO/Max is responsible for some of the buzziest shows of the year, both new and returning, so it’s going to be difficult to compete against them for the many nominations these shows will grab.
House of the Dragon returned with its second season last summer, which is eligible for this year’s Emmy awards. The sophomore outing of the Game of Thrones prequel series turned up the heat in its second season, setting up for a fiery return next year. In the meantime, lead performer Emma D’Arcy is sure to make their return to the Lead Actress nomination table, with Olivia Cooke vying hard for a position amongst the supporting actress noms.
The Last of Us will premiere its second season on Sunday, an early renewal for a third season that showed a sign of good faith from HBO. The first season did well with the Television Academy, and this season will surely grab the attention of audiences as it moves into a new part of the story. Kaitlyn Dever has joined the cast this year (but is she supporting or guest?), as has Catherine O’Hara – who finds herself competing in both comedy and drama for her work this year – and will be big players in the season. Where previous Lead Actor nominee Pedro Pascal will end up remains to be seen until official network submissions come in.
The White Lotus just ended its third season, cementing the nomination for Carrie Coon in the supporting actress category. The White Lotus has, historically, done well at the Emmys and this year should prove to be no different. The show should easily occupy four to five spots in the supporting categories for its large ensemble, notably Parker Posey and Walton Goggins, overloading them with these performers. The series has taken up space in the categories for both previous outings and this one should be no different.
Joining these returning shows, but on the Max side of things, is The Pitt. Arguably the biggest new show of the year, The Pitt is going to clean house with nominations. The creators should be expecting at least 20 nominations going into the Primetime ceremony, many coming from the performers on the show. Noah Wyle is the frontrunner for the Lead Actor category, so his nomination won’t be a surprise, but it would be his first in lead after five consecutive nominations in supporting for ER between 1995-1999.
Severance is also a top contender as the nominations draw nearer. The series’ second season drew much attention and acclaim for its long-awaited return, and many of the actors will likely have enough attention to gain nominations. Britt Lower remains a top contender for Lead Actress for her portrayal of Helena Eagen/Helly R., a dual role that gives her more to do this season than last. Kathy Bates will likely earn a nomination alongside her for Matlock, but will Elisabeth Moss return to the category for the final season of The Handmaid’s Tale? It doesn’t seem likely given the fizzling out the show has had when it comes to awards-body attention. Yellowjackets has also returned, its biggest chance of a nom residing in Melanie Lynskey’s lead performance.
These are my predictions for 2025 Emmy nominations in the Drama categories:
Outstanding Drama Series
The Day of the Jackal (Peacock)
The Diplomat (Netflix)
House of the Dragon (HBO)
The Last of Us (HBO)
Matlock (CBS)
Severance (AppleTV+)
The Pitt (Max)
The White Lotus (HBO)
Other contenders: The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Yellowjackets (Showtime); Squid Game (Netflix)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama
*Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us (HBO)
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
Eddie Redmayne, The Day of the Jackal (Peacock)
Adam Scott, Severance (AppleTV+)
Noah Wyle, The Pitt (Max)
Other contenders: Jacob Anderson, Interview with the Vampire (AMC+); Jon Hamm, Your Friends & Neighbors (AppleTV+); Sterling K. Brown, Paradise (Hulu)
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama
Kathy Bates, Matlock (CBS)
Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon (HBO)
Britt Lower, Severance (AppleTV+)
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us (HBO)
Other contenders: Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Kaitlin Olsen, High Potential (ABC); Keri Russell, The Diplomat (Netflix)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama
Patrick Ball, The Pitt (Max)
Walton Goggins, The White Lotus (HBO)
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus (HBO)
Jonathan Pryce, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus (HBO)
Tramell Tillman, Severance (AppleTV+)
John Turturro, Severance (AppleTV+)
Young Mazino, The Last of Us (HBO/Max)
Other contenders: Gerran Howell, The Pitt (Max); Patrick Schwarzenegger, The White Lotus (HBO); Zach Cherry, Severance (AppleTV+)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama
Patricia Arquette, Severance (AppleTV+)
Leslie Bibb, The White Lotus (HBO)
Olivia Cooke, House of the Dragon (HBO)
Carrie Coon, The White Lotus (HBO)
*Kaitlyn Dever, The Last of Us (HBO)
Allison Janney, The Diplomat (Netflix)
Catherine O’Hara, The Last of Us (HBO)
Parker Posey, The White Lotus (HBO)
Other contenders: Taylor Dearden, The Pitt (Max); Fiona Dourif, The Pitt (Max)
*category submission unclear
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