2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (July)

With Venice and (most of) Toronto revealing their festival lineups we have more information than ever on the upcoming Oscar races; making some early predictions stronger, introducing new possibilities and more.

Focus Features’ Conclave dropped its first trailer last week and although it’s bypassing Venice for Telluride and TIFF, Ralph Fiennes remains in a frontrunner position. If A24 sticks by Colman Domingo he should be a safe top tier bet. Sing Sing opened last week to great numbers in very limited release and will be tested when it goes wider on August 2.

Daniel Craig will hit the Lido at the end of next month with Luca Guadagnino’s Queer and despite the film starting its festival run without distribution he holds on. But really, who’s picking this up? It won’t be a major studio so who among the indies and mid-indies needs a Best Actor contender? Amazon MGM has Jharrel Jerome in Unstoppable (a TIFF premiere) and Ethan Herisse in Nickel Boys (hitting NYFF and a likely Telluride bow) and whatever they’re doing with Josh O’Connor and Mike Faist in Challengers. A24 is stacked. Holland, Michigan looks more like an actress vehicle for Nicole Kidman than a lead push for Matthew Macfadyen. NEON has André Holland in The Actor and Michael Shannon in The End. Netflix is the dark horse here; while it has John David Washington in The Piano Lesson, it’s his supporting co-stars that are gathering the necessary buzz and attention. Hit Man seems like an easy Golden Globe nomination for fast rising star Glen Powell but Oscar? I don’t think so. Apple has Steve McQueen’s Blitz this year but there’s no Best Actor contender there (presumably). But Apple and Queer don’t seem like a likely pairing. Maybe Sony Pictures Classics can come to the rescue, having successfully campaigned Guadagnino’s Call Me By Your Name to four Oscar nominations – including Best Actor – and a win.

Throwing a big electric guitar into the race is Timothée Chalamet – speaking of Call Me By Your Name – whose A Complete Unknown, in which he stars as Bob Dylan, only just recently wrapped principal photography and dropped a two and half minute trailer this morning. While Searchlight Pictures has Cannes Best Actor winner Jesse Plemons, the June release of Kinds of Kindness landed like a feather and the studio has James Mangold in a speedy post-production to get the film out by December. It would almost be weird to not have a musician biopic to hang our hat on this year and with Jeremy Allen White’s Bruce Springsteen flick likely late next year, so it’s a prudent choice to stay out of its way drop it this season.

Rumors are swirling that Clint Eastwood’s Juror #2 won’t be ready for 2024 but literally no one is faster in post-production than the two-time Oscar winner but if that’s the case then Nicholas Hoult leaves a sole Warner Bros push for Joaquin Phoenix, reprising his Oscar-winning Joker role in the sequel Joker: Folie à Deux, wide open.

Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Best Actor for July.

• 1. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features)
• 2. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24)
• 3. Daniel Craig – Queer (TBA)
• 4. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures)
• 5. Paul Mescal – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
• 6. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros)
• 7. André Holland – The Actor (NEON)
• 8. Jharrel Jerome – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM)
• 9. Sebastian Stan – A Different Man (A24)
• 10. Jesse Plemons – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures)

Next up: Ethan Herisse – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM), Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Mike Faist – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Andrew Garfield – We Live in Time (A24), Oscar Issac – In the Hands of Dante (TBA), Cillian Murphy – Small Things Like These (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions), Josh O’Connor – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Michael Shannon – The End (NEON), John David Washington – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)

Other contenders: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (TBA), Austin Butler – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Adam Driver – Megalopolis (Lionsgate), Jacob Elordi – On Swift Horses (Dimension Films), Richard Gere – Oh, Canada (TBA), Tom Hanks – Here (Sony/TriStar Pictures), André Holland – Exhibiting Forgiveness (Roadside Attractions), Barry Keoghan – Bird (MUBI), Glen Powell – Hit Man (Netflix), Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment), Robbie Williams – Better Man (Paramount Pictures)

Lead or Supporting?: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Willam Dafoe – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Mike Faist – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Matthew Macfadyen – Holland, Michigan (Amazon MGM), Josh O’Connor – Challengers (Amazon MGM)

2024 or 2025?: Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures), George Clooney – Jay Kelly (Netflix), Ed Harris – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Nicholas Hoult – Juror#2 (Warner Bros), Gabriel LaBelle – SNL 1975 (Sony Pictures), Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix), Denzel Washington – High and Low (Apple Original Films)