2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (November)

Is it Ralph Fiennes’ time? Will the Academy conclave and finally pick him as this year’s Best Actor or is there a secret surprise candidate waiting in the wings?

However it shakes out, it feels like a forgone conclusion – even though we don’t have any major industry nominations yet – that this year’s Best Actor contenders are most likely going to come from a pool of just six. Is it possible someone outside of that cloistered sextet finds their way in? Sure, anything’s possible at nearly every stage of the race. Passion votes can soar at the last minute, just ask Andrea Riseborough.

The Golden Globes already split comedy and drama, doubling the number of possible contenders, but also now have six slots in each, giving us 12. Critics Choice will have six as well, SAG remains stalwart at five. Will be interesting to see if Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is able to best Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) at the Gotham Awards and how Fiennes (Conclave) will face off against Daniel Craig (Queer) at the European Film Awards. The already tight race for a nomination will become increasingly more so if none of them prevail in the Gothams’ non-gendered field of 10 or if the EFA reaches outside of star power and goes with someone else.

Nominations the Spirit Awards will be December 4, just two days after the Gotham Awards winners ceremony, nominations for the Golden Globes in drama and comedy will be here December 9 and Critics Choice noms will land December 12. The BAFTA longlists drop on January 3 with nominations on January 15 and right in between there the Screen Actors Guild will have their say with nominations on January 8. By then we’ll also have the lion’s share of individual critics’ group having chimed in with their winners in acting categories, among others.

Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Best Actor for November.

Next up: Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), Ethan Herisse – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM), Tom Hanks – Here (Sony Pictures/Tri-Star), Josh Hartnett – Trap (Warner Bros), André Holland – Exhibiting Forgiveness (Roadside Attractions), Jharrel Jerome – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Gabriel LaBelle – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment), John David Washington – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Robbie Williams – Better Man (Paramount Pictures)

Other contenders: Austin Butler – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Timothée Chalamet – Dune Part Two (Warner Bros), Adam Driver – Megalopolis (Lionsgate), Andrew Garfield – We Live in Time (A24), Richard Gere – Oh, Canada (Kino Lorber), Hugh Grant — Heretic (A24), Elliott Heffernan — Blitz (Apple Original Films), Anthony Hopkins – One Life (Bleecker Street), Keith Kupferer – Ghostlight (IFC Films) – Gotham, Cillian Murphy – Small Things Like These (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions), Jesse Plemons – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures) — Cannes, Jason Schwartzman – Between the Temples (Sony Pictures Classics)