2025 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR (December)

The year is almost wrapped up and with comes the Oscar race that’s not so ‘early’ anymore. Dozens of critics’ lists, AFI and NBR top 10s, Critics Choice and Golden Globes nominations are here.

Emilia Pérez scored 10 nominations from both the CCA and GG, breaking the all-time Globes record for a film in the musical or comedy categories. Conclave was CCA nomination leader with 11 (it earned six at the Globes), tying with Wicked (which earned four Globe nods) while Dune: Part Two earned 10 at CCA and The Brutalist came in at 9. The Dune sequel had a rockier road at the Globes, only snagging two nods. Anora performed strong at both as well as leading the Gotham and Spirit Award nominations, giving it the most crossover of any film of the year. The Producers Guild of America announces their nominations on January 10 but don’t expect a full crossover to Best Picture, there’s always one or two standouts that make it there and just miss the Oscar.

For the director’s race, we could be getting very close to the reality of an all-first timer lineup. With Ridley Scott (Gladiator II) and Clint Eastwood (Juror #2) all but out of the race, that leaves just Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two to keep it from happening. But after missing here for the first film, does making the cut for the second film of a trilogy even make sense? For Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) and Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), this is the first time they and their films have been in the top tier of the Oscar race. Edward Berger (Conclave) is unique in that his last film, 2022’s All Quiet on the Western Front, became a surprise major contender, earning nine nominations – including Best Picture – and winning four, but with Berger shockingly missing. For RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys is his first narrative feature but he is an Oscar nominee for his 2018 documentary Hale County This Morning, This Evening.

Audiard, Baker, Berger, Corbet and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) have CCA and GG crossover with Fargeat being in a great position to break up this men’s room of directors. So could Globe nominee Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. The DGA and BAFTA will continue to muddy the waters a bit as there will likely be three or four crossovers at best.

The BAFTA longlists drop on January 3 with nominations on January 15. The Directors Guild of American will reveal their noms on January 8 (same day as SAG, crazy).

Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Best Picture and Best Director for December.

BEST PICTURE

Next up (alphabetical): 

Other contenders: The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment), Better Man (Paramount Pictures), Civil War (A24), Dìdi (Focus Features), The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros) – NBR, Here (Sony Pictures/Tri-Star Pictures), His Three Daughters (Netflix), Hit Man (Netflix), Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Maria (Netflix), Megalopolis (Lionsgate), Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures), Queer (A24), Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), The End (NEON), Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), We Live in Time (A24)

BEST DIRECTOR

Next up (alphabetical): 

Other contenders: Michael Gracey – Better Man (Paramount Pictures), Sean Wang – Dìdi (Focus Features), Rachel Morrison – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), George Miller – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros), Richard Linklater – Hit Man (Netflix), Robert Zemekis – Here (Sony Pictures/Columbia Pictures), Azazel Jacobs – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Jane Shoenbrun – I Saw the TV Glow (A24) – Gotham, Todd Phillips – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Yorgos Lanthimos – Kind of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Pablo Larraín – Maria (Netflix), Francis Ford Coppola – Megalopolis (Lionsgate), Marielle Heller – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures), Luca Guadagnino – Queer (A24), Jason Reitman – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Joshua Oppenheimer – The End (NEON), William Goldenberg – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), John Crowley – We Live in Time (A24)