2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (August)

Reiterating my Best Actress predictions, with Venice, TIFF and NYFF lineups revealed, save a few titles over the next couple of weeks, and Telluride just around the corner, who’s showing up where became almost less important than who’s not showing up anywhere.

I’ve dropped Austin Butler (Dune: Part II) from my top 10, for now, which means only Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) remains as the sole prediction from a film without a festival run this year, presuming that it doesn’t magically pop up at AFI FEST, London or New York. Butler, and Queer‘s Drew Starkey, are replaced in the lower ranks of the list by Hamish Linklater for Nickel Boys as the brutal superintendent of the Jim Crow era boys school at the center of Colson Whitehead’s novel and Jeremy Strong as the monstrous Roy Cohn and his relationship with an 80s era Donald Trump in The Apprentice.

As with Best Actress, names begin to start falling from the list precipitously like Tom Bateman in Hedda, Anders Danielsen Lee in Summer Book, Matthew Macfadyen in Holland, Michigan and Ben Foster in Long Day’s Journey Into Night. No dates, no festival announcements, barring a surprise showing at AFI or Telluride, but not counting on it.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for August.

1. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
2. Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
3. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24)
5. John Lithgow – Conclave (Focus Features)
6. Stanley Tucci – Conclave (Focus Features)
7. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures)
8. Adam Pearson – A Different Man (A24)
9. Hamish Linklater – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)
10. Stephen Graham – Blitz (Apple Original Films)

Next up: Nicholas Braun – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Austin Butler – Dune Part II (Warner Bros), Harris Dickinson – Blitz (Apple Original Films), Mike Faist – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Fred Hechinger – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Brian Tyree Henry – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Cooper Hoffman – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Scoot McNairy – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures), Josh O’Connor – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Joseph Quinn – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Drew Starkey – Queer (TBA), Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment)

Other contenders: Jonathan Bailey – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures), Antonio Banderas – Babygirl (A24), Yuri Borisov – Anora (NEON), Willem Dafoe – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Willem Dafoe – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Giancarlo Esposito – Megalopolis (Lionsgate), Mark Eydelshteyn – Anora (NEON), Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Chris Hemsworth – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros), George MacKay – The End (NEON), Dylan O’Brien – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Jesse Plemons – Civil War (A24), Paul Raci – Sing Sing (A24), Cory Michael Smith – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), John Turturro – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)

Lead or Supporting?: Demián Bichir – Without Blood (Fremantle), Mike Faist – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Jharrel Jerome – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Barry Keoghan – Bird (MUBI), Josh O’Connor – Challengers (Amazon MGM),  Jesse Plemons – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures)

2024 or 2025?: Tom Bateman – Hedda (Amazon MGM), Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Anders Danielsen Lie – The Summer Book (TBA), Matthew Macfadyen – Holland, Michigan (Amazon MGM)