2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (July)

We got our first look at Gladiator II earlier this month and with it two-time Academy Award winner Denzel Washington, who brings some deep bench Oscar bonafides to the much-anticipated sequel to Ridley Scott’s Best Picture winner from nearly a quarter century ago.

While Washington clearly has a juicy part, and the biggest among the film’s supporting men, it still appears to be a supporting role, even in its Salieri-esque Machiavellian nature. While it’s obviously very early to ‘call’ category placements that might have some wiggle room, I think pretending this one does feels a bit specious. But, clicks are clicks and someone has to pay the bills. Paul Mescal is the film’s lead—the titular role, no less—and no studio has successfully navigated two actors to Best Oscar nominations in 40 years, they don’t even try anymore. But we’ll see. For the record, the last time was 1984’s Amadeus, where Tom Hulce played, wait for it, the titular role, and F. Murray Abraham played, wait for it, Salieri. Both were nominated and Abraham won the Oscar, so I’m more than aware of the possibility, just less believing of the likelihood of it, much less Washington over Mescal altogether. What could be interesting is seeing if Joseph Quinn and Fred Hechinger factor into the race. As the twin Roman rulers, they might be fighting each other for dominance onscreen and off in the awards race. Quinn’s Geta has more to do in the trailer, but it’s Hechinger’s Caracalla who historically could be the victor. Granted, Scott is rather infamously not a stickler for historical accuracy but if he is here that could give Hechinger the edge.

Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for July.

1. Denzel Washington – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
2. Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
3. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures)
4. John Lithgow – Conclave (Focus Features)
5. Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing (A24)
6. Stanley Tucci – Conclave (Focus Features)
7. Stephen Graham – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
8. Adam Pearson – A Different Man (A24)
9. Drew Starkey – Queer (TBA)
10. Austin Butler – Dune Part II (Warner Bros)

Next up: Anders Danielsen Lie – The Summer Book (TBA), Harris Dickinson – Blitz (Apple Original Films), Mark Eydelshteyn – Anora (NEON), Fred Hechinger – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Brian Tyree Henry – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Jharrel Jerome – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Hamish Linklater – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM), Matthew Macfadyen – Holland, Michigan (Amazon MGM), Scoot McNairy – Nightbitch, Joseph Quinn – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)

Other contenders: Jonathan Bailey – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures), Antonio Banderas – Babygirl (A24), Tom Bateman – Hedda (Amazon MGM), Yuri Borisov – Anora (NEON), Willem Dafoe – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Giancarlo Esposito – Megalopolis (Lionsgate), Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Chris Hemsworth – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros), George MacKay – The End (NEON), Jesse Plemons – Civil War (A24), Paul Raci – Sing Sing (A24), John Turturro – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)

Lead or Supporting?: Demián Bichir – Without Blood (Fremantle), Mike Faist – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Jharrel Jerome – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Barry Keoghan – Bird (MUBI), Josh O’Connor – Challengers (Amazon MGM),  Jesse Plemons – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures)

Will it be out in 2024?: Nicholas Braun/Gabriel LaBelle/Dylan O’Brien/LaMorne Morris/J.K. Simmons/Anyone – SNL 1975 (Sony Pictures), George Clooney – Jay Kelly (Netflix), Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Jharrel Jerome – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Anders Danielsen Lie – The Summer Book (TBA), Matthew Macfadyen – Holland, Michigan (Amazon MGM), Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (TBA), Jeffrey Wright – High and Low (Apple Original Films)