2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (November)

The Gotham Awards came in strong for four of the already top contending supporting actors this year in Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and the quickly-gaining Yura Borisov (Anora).

If those four are set, and it’s early so we can’t get too comfortable, then how does Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) not round out the set? I’ll maintain that Pearce and Borisov are the most vulnerable, especially once we get into Golden Globe and SAG territory, with the likes of Stanley Tucci (Conclave) and Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) peeking in.

But what if we’re underestimating Josh O’Connor in Challengers? The film was a hit by any standard and it’s almost a co-lead role (which seems to be very in vogue this season) and he also brings in his great lead performance in La Chimera (as does Isabella Rossellini and her supporting bid for Conclave, for that matter) and it might be just the right time for his rising star that will find him next with Paul Mescal in The History of Sound, Kelly Reichardt’s 70s era heist film The Mastermind and the third in Rian Johnson’s Knives Out trilogy, Wake Up Dead Man, all next year. I’m willing to test the waters a bit and see where it goes.

Nominations the Spirit Awards will be December 4, just two days after the Gotham Awards winners ceremony, nominations for the Golden Globes in drama and comedy will be here December 9 and Critics Choice noms will land December 12. The BAFTA longlists drop on January 3 with nominations on January 15 and right in between there the Screen Actors Guild will have their say with nominations on January 8. By then we’ll also have the lion’s share of individual critics’ group having chimed in with their winners in acting categories, among others.

Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for November.

Next up: Jonathan Bailey – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures), Austin Butler – Dune Part II (Warner Bros), Mark Eydelshteyn – Anora (NEON), Brian Tyree Henry – The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM), Cooper Hoffman – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), John Magaro – September 5 (Paramount Pictures), Adam Pearson – A Different Man (A24), Drew Starkey – Queer (A24), Peter Sarsgaard – September 5 (Paramount Pictures), Brandon Wilson – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)

Other contenders: Antonio Banderas – Babygirl (A24), Willem Dafoe – Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Mike Faist – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Ray Fisher – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (Focus Features), Fred Hechinger – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Chris Hemsworth – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (Warner Bros), George MacKay – The End (NEON), Scoot McNairy – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures), Dylan O’Brien – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Jesse Plemons – Civil War (A24), Joseph Quinn – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Paul Raci – Sing Sing (A24), Cory Michael Smith – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), John Turturro – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)