2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (December)
Unlike Supporting Actor, there’s no runaway frontrunner here, it’s a wide open field that has seen wins for 13 actresses across the major festivals and first two weeks of critics awards.
Ariana Grande-Butera (Wicked) leads those wins, thanks to regional critics like Iowa and Michigan, with six, ahead of Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance), who have scooped up three apiece. Then we have where Critics Choice and the Golden Globes cross, nominating Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) as well as Grande-Butera and Qualley, in both. As in Best Actress, it’s going to be a bit of a nail-biter all season, as SAG and BAFTA nominations are likely to do little more than lock in three contenders (maybe four?) and leave just enough room for lots of speculation.
While the surge for Qualley this week is noticeable – she’s winning regional awards where Demi Moore isn’t – there’s something that still feels just a bit off. Maybe it’s a little bit Mila Kunis/Black Swan, maybe it’s a little bit that The Substance support with the Oscar shortlists was only their for makeup. It’s certainly not as strong as that film was, or at least it doesn’t have the runaway win for its leading star.
Where that puts us right is a very solid top 3 and then no less than five actresses competing for two spots: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Deadwyler, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Qualley and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez). Jones and Ellis-Taylor as previous nominees gives them a slight edge. Gomez could very well benefit from what we’ve already seen with her film, massive nomination and win numbers from the Globes, CCA and European Film Academy.
The BAFTA longlists drop on January 3 with nominations on January 15 and right in between there the Screen Actors Guild will have their say with nominations on January 8. By then we’ll also have the lion’s share of individual critics’ group having chimed in with their winners in acting categories, among others.
Academy Award nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.
Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for December.
| 1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, Cannes (Best Actress) |
| 2. Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | CCA, GG |
| 3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) | CCA, GG |
| 4. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24) | GG |
| 5. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix) | CCA, Gotham |
| 6. Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | Cannes (Best Actress), GG |
| 7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) | CCA |
| 8. Margaret Qualley – The Substance (MUBI) | CCA, GG |
| 9. Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (Netflix) | Gotham |
| 10. Joan Chen – Dìdi (Focus Features) |
Next up (alphabetical):
| Michelle Austin – Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) | |
| Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | |
| Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions) | |
| Carol Kane – Between the Temples (Sony Pictures Classics) | |
| Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films) |
Other contenders: Maria Bakalova – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment), Leonie Benesch – September 5 (Paramount Pictures), Glenn Close – The Deliverance (Netflix), Carrie Coon – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Toni Collette – Juror #2 (Warner Bros), Elle Fanning – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures), Jennifer Grey – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Moses Ingram – The End (NEON), Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Lashana Lynch – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), Lesley Manville – Queer (A24), Connie Nielsen – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Katy O’Brian – Love Lies Bleeding (A24) – Gotham, Elizabeth Olsen – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Renate Reinsve – A Different Man (A24), Emily Watson – Small Things Happen (Lionsgate)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
- FINAL 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions: FILM EDITING, CINEMATOGRAPHY, COSTUME DESIGN, PRODUCTION DESIGN - January 16, 2025
- 39th American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Tap Seven Film Nominees Including ‘Nosferatu,’ ‘Maria,’ ‘Wicked’ - January 16, 2025
- 36th Producers Guild (PGA) Awards Nominations: ‘Anora,’ ‘Emilia Pérez’ Make the Cut, ‘Nickel Boys’ Snubbed, and the ‘September 5’ Surprise - January 16, 2025
FINAL 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions: FILM EDITING, CINEMATOGRAPHY, COSTUME DESIGN, PRODUCTION DESIGN 
39th American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Tap Seven Film Nominees Including ‘Nosferatu,’ ‘Maria,’ ‘Wicked’ 
36th Producers Guild (PGA) Awards Nominations: ‘Anora,’ ‘Emilia Pérez’ Make the Cut, ‘Nickel Boys’ Snubbed, and the ‘September 5’ Surprise 
2024 Pittsburgh Film Critics Association (PFCA) Winners: ‘The Substance,’ ‘Challengers,’ ‘Sing Sing’ Dominate Inaugural Awards