2025 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (June)

As I mentioned in my Best Actress predictions, the quadruple Cannes Best Actress win for Karla Sofía Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz from Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez creates a potentially difficult situation for category placement but after talking to direct sources my instincts were right having Gascón in lead and the others in supporting. Nothing is set in stone, mind you, but this is where things are right now, no matter what you may have read elsewhere. But it does put Saldaña, with the largest supporting-could-be-co-lead role in the film, at the top this month.

I also have Danielle Deadwyler over in Best Actress for The Piano Lesson and while she could go lead there it’s probably more likely she’ll end up in supporting. Playing Berniece in the film, that role earned S. Epatha Merkerson a Tony Award nomination for Featured Actress in a Play in 1990 playing the same role. It would simply be the safer choice, like Viola Davis opting for supporting at the Oscars for 2016’s Fences even though she won a lead Tony for her role.

Are we finally going to see Toni Collette earn her second Oscar nomination? After her surprising and wholly deserved on way back in 1999 for The Sixth Sense, the versatile actress has gone on to win Emmys but has yet to return to the Oscars, even after her celebrated and brutally snubbed turn in 2018’s Hereditary. Juror #2 is the latest from Clint Eastwood, who, while he’s had a spotty record in the part of his career for earning acting nominations out of his film, he did land Kathy Bates a spot for Richard Jewell, much to the ire of many who thought that spot was hand graved for Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers.

Because it’s still so early in the year, several upcoming films are not only without dates, some may find themselves with 2025 releases entirely. We see it every year but looking at a few we have Jennifer Lopez in Unstoppable (also a lead or supporting? contender) and both Nina Hoss and Imogen Poots in Hedda. Both films are from Amazon MGM, which also has Nickel Boys and The Fire Inside, which will be 2024 releases. So for now, I’m including them all in various sections and as more information comes to light so will adjustments be made.

I’m eerily curious about Glenn Close in Lee Daniels’ The Deliverance, coming in August. Bypassing the fall fests isn’t great and probably means it’s not a serious awards player but Close is the most-nominated actor alive to yet win an Oscar at eight. Mo’Nique is an Oscar winner (but not likely to do any type of campaigning) plus there’s also Academy Award nominees Andra Day and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (who, incidentally, is also in Nickel Boys). I’ve heard the exorcism drama, which is based on a true story, has some capital A acting from Close and company and that alone deserves a spot on this list.

Academy Awards nominations will be announced January 17, 2025 and the 97th Oscars will be held on March 2.

Here are my 2025 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for June.

1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
2. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
3. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)
4. Toni Collette – Juror #2 (Warner Bros)
5. Lesley Manville – Queer (TBA)
6. Glenn Close – The Deliverance (Netflix)
7. Joan Chen – Dìdi (Focus Features)
8. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features)
9. Kathy Burke – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
10. Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM)

Next up: Maria Bakalova – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment – tentatively), Carrie Coon – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Nina Hoss – Women in the Castle (TBA), Moses Ingram – The End (NEON), Mo’Nique – The Deliverance (Netflix), Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Elizabeth Olsen – His Three Daughters (Netflix),  Renate Reinsve – A Different Man (A24), Kristin Scott Thomas – Women in the Castle (TBA), Emily Watson – Small Things Happen (Lionsgate)

Other contenders: Zoe Chao – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures), Michaela Coel – Mother Mary (A24), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – The Deliverance (Netflix), Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl (TBA), Dolly De Leon – Between the Temples (Sony Pictures Classics), Nathalie Emmanuel – Megalopolis (Lionsgate), Selena Gomez – Emilia Pérez (Netflix), Jennifer Grey – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Anne Hathaway – Mother Mary (A24), Nina Hoss – Hedda (Amazon MGM), Catherine Keener – Joker: Folie a Deux (Warner Bros), Connie Nielsen – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures), Catherine O’Hara – Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Warner Bros), Imogen Poots – Hedda (Amazon MGM), Daisy Ridley – Women in the Castle (TBA), Robin Wright – Here (Sony Pictures), Michelle Yeoh – Wicked  Part I (Universal Pictures)

Lead or supporting?: Glenn Close – The Summer Book (TBA), Michaela Coel – Mother Mary (A24), Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Anne Hathaway – Mother Mary (A24), Daisy Ridley – Women in the Castle (TBA), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters (Netflix), Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (Apple Original Films), Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix), Kristin Scott Thomas – Women in the Castle (TBA)

2024 or 2025?:  Melissa Barrera – The Collaboration (TBA), Laura Dern – Jay Kelly (Netflix), Ilfenesh Hadera – High and Low (Apple Original Films), Ella Hunt/Rachel Sennot – SNL 1975 (Sony Pictures), Nina Hoss – Hedda (Amazon MGM), Vicky Krieps – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (TBA), Jennifer Lopez – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM), Fernanda Montenegro – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics), Imogen Poots – Hedda (Amazon MGM), Charlotte Rampling – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (TBA)