2025 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist’s December Update with Golden Globe Nominations, Critics’ Awards Wins

With December well underway, the race for Best Picture remains wide open. No clear frontrunner has emerged yet, despite several contenders fiercely competing for the top spot. What a thrilling time to be alive! This time last year, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer was already commanding the conversation, leading the pack with undeniable momentum. While I was ecstatic to see Nolan finally earn the recognition he deserved, there’s something uniquely exciting about a race that’s still anyone’s game. It certainly makes predicting the outcome that much more fun.

In the past couple of weeks, I had the chance to screen some of this year’s most anticipated films, including James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown, Jon M. Chu’s Wicked: Part 1, and Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu. I’ll dive into their awards prospects shortly.

Along with catching up on new releases, we’ve officially kicked off awards season with the announcements of the Gothams, Los Angeles (LAFCA) and New York Critics (NYFCC), and National Board of Review (NBR) winners, as well as the American Film Institute’s (AFI) Top Ten Films and the Golden Globe nominations.

Since its inception in 2004, the Gotham Awards have seen 13 of their 20 winners go on to receive Best Picture nominations at the Oscars, with six of those winning the Oscar. This year’s Gotham winner was A Different Man.

The NBR, which has been awarding films since 1932, began with Mervyn LeRoy’s I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang winning their first prize. To streamline the comparison, let’s focus on the 15 years since the Academy switched to the preferential ballot in 2009. Of those 15 NBR winners, 13 earned Best Picture nominations (with only A Most Violent Year and Da 5 Bloods missing out). This is a promising sign for Wicked: Part 1, which took home the NBR award this year. However, the overlap with winners is less clear-cut: since 2009, only Green Book has won both the NBR and the Academy’s top honor.

The NYFCC, established in 1936, has seen similar trends. Over the same 15-year window, 13 of their winners also received Best Picture nominations from the Oscars (with Carol and First Cow the exceptions). Only two of these films, The Hurt Locker and The Artist, ultimately took home the Oscar for Best Picture. This year, the NYFCC awarded its top prize to The Brutalist.

The LAFCA started in 1975. Their winner has gone on to receive an Oscar Best Picture nomination all but once in that 15-year time. The anomaly was in 2020 when the group awarded their Best Film prize to Small Axe, a TV anthology series that premiered on the BBC and was somehow eligible for their film prize. Obviously, the series was not eligible for an Oscar. This group went with Anora.

So, what does this quartet of precursors mean in the grand scheme of things? Primarily, they help keep the winners in the spotlight. With so many films vying for attention from voters, awards like these can push films like The Brutalist, Wicked: Part 1, Anora, and A Different Man higher on voters’ lists. While Wicked: Part 1, Anora, and The Brutalist may not need the boost, A Different Man stands to benefit most from its win. While these early wins don’t necessarily point to a clear frontrunner for the year, they do suggest how other groups might follow suit.

The AFI, however, remains one of the most significant precursors in the awards season. Of the 136 films nominated for Best Picture since the Academy adopted the preferential ballot in 2009, 102 appeared on the AFI’s Top Ten list. Given that the AFI only considers American productions, this overlap of 75% is particularly notable.

It’s hard to bet against any of the AFI’s films this year:

Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Wicked: Part 1

The Golden Globe Awards, which began in 1944, have weathered some controversy in recent years but remain a key precursor to the Oscars. Since the introduction of the preferential ballot 15 years ago, six Golden Globe winners for Best Picture (Drama or Musical/Comedy) have gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Picture.

Perhaps even more telling than the overlap in Picture winners is the significance of a Golden Globe nomination for Screenplay. Over the past 53 years, the eventual Best Picture winner has received a Globe nomination for Screenplay 46 times – 87% of the time. The only exception in the preferential ballot era is CODA (2021). This year’s Globes’ Screenplay nominees are Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, and The Substance.

This year, five films were recognized by the AFI, NBR, and Golden Globes (Best Picture) – Conclave, Anora, Wicked: Part 1, A Real Pain, and A Complete Unknown. Add Globe Screenplay to that precursor run and you are left with Conclave, Anora, and A Real Pain. 

On the other hand, September 5 and Gladiator II have faced early setbacks. The former only received Globes support in the Best Picture category, while the latter garnered recognition only from the NBR.

Let’s break down the Oscar prospects of the major films I’ve seen over the past couple of weeks.

Wicked: Part 1

Early critics’ reactions to Wicked: Part 1 were undeniably enthusiastic, verging on hyperbolic, with universal acclaim for Ariana Grande’s performance, the costume design, the production sets, sound, and hair/makeup. While I feared the overwhelming hype might dampen my own experience, I’m happy to report that it’s entirely justified. Wicked: Part 1 is a grand cinematic spectacle, and the praise for all the aforementioned elements is more than deserved. However, if I had to single out one standout, it would be Cynthia Erivo. Her performance is the beating heart of the film, matching (if not rivaling) Grande’s own work in both emotional depth and star power. In fact, I’ve bumped Erivo into my top five for Best Actress, a place I feel she undeniably deserves.

Beyond the central performances, Wicked: Part 1 is shaping up to be a major awards contender across multiple categories. Below the line, it seems poised to join Dune: Part 2 and Gladiator II in earning nominations across the board. A particularly strong contender is Paul Tazewell for Costume Design. I had the privilege of hearing Tazewell (Akron’s own) speak at the Middleburg Film Festival in October, where he shared his insights into the costumes for Wicked: Part 1. He spoke eloquently about the design of Glinda’s costumes, focusing on curves, softness, and femininity, using light fabrics to evoke an ethereal quality. In stark contrast, Elphaba’s costume is more structured, drawing inspiration from nature, with intricate micro-pleating and patterns inspired by mushrooms and fungi – elements that reflect her deep connection to the natural world and the animal rights she cares so deeply about. It’s a truly remarkable body of work, and I not only expect Tazewell to receive a nomination but believe he’s also the frontrunner for the win.

Wicked: Part 1 is also likely to contend for nominations in Production Design, Hair/Makeup, and Sound. Visual Effects and Editing will also be strong contenders in their respective categories. Given its potential across so many areas, the question now becomes: could Wicked: Part 1 win Best Picture? To do so, it will need to secure a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. If we examine the Best Picture winners since 2000, every single one has also received a nomination for Screenplay. In fact, 17 of the 24 Best Picture winners since 2000 also claimed the Screenplay award. When focusing on the 15 Picture winners from the preferential ballot era, 11 of them went on to win Screenplay as well. The competition in the Adapted Screenplay race is fierce, with contenders like Conclave, Sing Sing, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Dune: Part 2, and Emilia Pérez among the frontrunners. Could Wicked: Part 1 break into that list? It’s possible, but it will be a tight race.

Another potential obstacle for Wicked: Part 1 could be the Director category. Jon M. Chu is certainly deserving of a nomination, having demonstrated his skill with films like In the Heights and Crazy Rich Asians. But the director’s branch is notoriously fickle, and I’m curious to see if Wicked: Part 1’s overall success will be enough to secure him a spot. If the film receives a slew of nominations and positions itself as a strong contender for Best Picture, there’s certainly a chance Chu could join the conversation.

Let’s keep an eye on the international reception of Wicked: Part 1. While it’s a beloved Broadway staple in the U.S., you might wonder how it has resonated overseas. The stage musical is one of the highest-grossing shows in Europe, and as of December 1, the film has grossed over $359.2 million globally (nearly $100 million of that internationally), a testament to the universal appeal of its themes of friendship, prejudice, and empowerment. 

I’m not yet ready to include Jon M. Chu in my Director predictions, nor does Wicked: Part 1 currently occupy a spot in my Screenplay top five. However, I’ve moved it into the sixth position in both categories and have placed Wicked: Part 1 firmly in my top five for Picture. With such strong potential across multiple categories, it’s quickly shaping up to be a serious contender.

Nosferatu

Robert Eggers, alongside Jordan Peele and Ari Aster, has solidified his place as one of the most respected voices in contemporary horror. His feature debut, The Witch (2015), stands as one of the defining horror films of the 21st century. In his latest work, Nosferatu, Eggers combines the harrowing dread of The Witch with the psychological madness of his follow-up, The Lighthouse (2019), creating a compelling new entry in his distinct cinematic universe.

As expected from Eggers, Nosferatu is a visually striking film. From its meticulously crafted set designs to its lush costumes and stunning cinematography, the film is a feast for the eyes. It’s likely to be a strong contender in these technical categories come awards season.

Could Nosferatu make its mark in the Best Picture race? While it’s still early, its potential to resonate with audiences on a deeper, emotional level cannot be ignored. On a preferential ballot, passion plays a critical role, and this is the kind of film that could top many voters’ lists. I’m not ready to place it in my top ten just yet, however. I currently have it ranked 16th, making it a dark horse for Best Picture at the moment.

Eggers for Director and/or Screenplay, as well as Lily-Rose Depp for her role as the tormented heroine, are longshots for Oscar. Depp’s performance is captivating, but the Lead Actress category is highly competitive this year, and it’s hard to envision a clear path for her to break in. That said, her performance in Nosferatu will undoubtedly garner praise, paving the way for future recognition.

Overall, I thoroughly enjoyed Nosferatu and its haunting, atmospheric tone. It’s one of the best films of the year, and Eggers continues to prove his mastery in crafting unsettling yet visually rich horror.

A Complete Unknown

James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown is a captivating and powerful dramatization of the legendary Bob Dylan’s rise to fame in the early 1960s. Timothée Chalamet delivers an Oscar-worthy performance as the enigmatic, rebellious figure credited with redefining the folk music scene. Set against the backdrop of a turbulent era – marked by presidential assassinations, the looming threat of nuclear war, and the Vietnam War – Dylan, alongside figures like Pete Seeger (Edward Norton), Joan Baez (Monica Barbaro), and Johnny Cash (Boyd Holbrook), became the voice of a generation in crisis.

Chalamet commands the screen with an exceptional portrayal, perfectly capturing Dylan’s murmur, mystique, and mannerisms in a way that feels almost miraculous. Elle Fanning shines as his love interest, adding depth and nuance to the role. Norton is brilliant as the calm and measured Pete Seeger, but it is Monica Barbaro’s portrayal of Joan Baez that truly steals the show. After a memorable but smaller role in Top Gun: Maverick, Barbaro’s performance in A Complete Unknown is nothing short of unforgettable.

A Complete Unknown is poised to be a major contender across multiple categories, particularly for Best Picture and Best Actor. Drawing comparisons to Mangold’s earlier work, Walk the Line, which garnered nominations for Best Picture, Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), Costume Design, Film Editing, Sound, and a win for Best Actress (Reese Witherspoon), A Complete Unknown seems destined for a similarly impressive awards season showing.

Other films I’ve watched:

I recently caught up with The Order, starring Jude Law, Nicholas Hoult, and Tye Sheridan, and it completely took me by surprise. Based on the true story of violent bank robberies in the Pacific Northwest, the film follows a lone FBI agent (Law) who uncovers a dangerous plot against the federal government, orchestrated by a militant white supremacist (Hoult). While it may not be high-profile enough for major awards recognition, I firmly believe this is Jude Law’s best performance to date. It’s also quickly become one of my favorite films of the year. A must-see.

One of the frontrunners in the International Feature race is Brazil’s I’m Still Here, a poignant and emotionally charged film inspired by true events, featuring one of the year’s standout performances from Fernanda Torres. If the international branch of the Academy gravitates toward a single film, this is the one I hope they support. It’s a deeply moving and powerful story, anchored by an extraordinary performance. The I’m Still Here fanbase on Twitter is truly passionate – an enthusiastic group that I’ve learned loves to celebrate the rich culture and history of Brazil. They’ve made me a fan. Viva o Brasil!

Halina Reijn’s Babygirl offers a provocative exploration of power dynamics, Dominance and submission, and the allure of the forbidden. Nicole Kidman delivers a powerhouse performance as Romy, a high-powered businesswoman who surrenders to her overwhelming, darker desires. The film is initially captivating as Romy begins to embrace her submissive side, but it ultimately falls short of its potential. Harris Dickinson, though possessing star-making qualities, is miscast in his role. His portrayal lacks the authority and presence needed to convince as a Dominant, which undermines the film’s credibility and took me out of the experience entirely.

Babygirl teases the complexity of Romy’s journey but never fully examines what drives her fascination with this lifestyle. What is it about this world that draws her in so intensely, like a moth to a flame? I found myself craving a deeper understanding of her psyche, but the film offers only a surface-level exploration. For a movie like this, which deals with such intricate emotional and psychological layers, merely skimming the surface doesn’t do it justice. You need to be fully immersed or the film risks feeling hollow. Despite Kidman’s exceptional performance, Babygirl ends up being a mild disappointment.

Updated Oscar Predictions:

On the Radar:

1. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) – NBR; AARP;  
2. September 5 (Paramount Pictures) – Globes; AARP; StL; 
3. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) – Venice; EFA; 
4. The Substance (MUBI) – Globes; Spirits; MMCG; SFCS; 
5. Challengers (Amazon/MGM) – Globes; Gothams; SFCS; SD;  

On the Radar:

1. RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) – Gothams; NYFCC; StL; 
2. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) – Globes; MMCG; SFCS; SD;  
3. Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light) – Globes; 
4. Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part 2) ; SFCS; SD; WAFCA; StL; 
5. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) – AARP;

On the Radar:

1. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) – Globes;
2. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) – Globes; Spirits; 
3. Sebastian Stan (A Different Man) – Globes; 
4. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)
5. Paul Mescal (Gladiator II)

On the Radar:

1. Demi Moore (The Substance) – Globes; Gothams; AARP; Spirits; MMCG; SFCS; SD; WAFCA; LAFCA; StL; 
2. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) – Gothams; AARP; NYFCC; LAFCA; SFCS; SD; WAFCA; BIFA; StL; 
3. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) – Globes; LAFCA; 
4. Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) – Gothams; StL; 
5. Amy Adams (Nightbitch) – Globes; Spirits; MMCG; SD;  

On the Radar:

1. Stanley Tucci (Conclave) – AARP; SD; StL; 
2. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) – Globes; 
3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) – Globes; BSFC; 
4. Peter Sarsgaard (September 5) – AARP;
5. John Magaro (September 5)

On the Radar:

1. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) – Globes; Cannes;;
2. Margaret Qualley (The Substance) – Globes;; MMCG; SFCS; 
3. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) – AARP;; WAFCA; StL; 
4. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
5. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) – NBR; 

On the Radar:

1. Emilia Pérez – Globes; EFA; AARP;
2. The Room Next Door – EFA;
3. The Piano Lesson – SD;  
4. Gladiator II
5. The Wild Robot – SD;  

On the Radar:

1. Hard Truths – NBR; StL; 
2. Saturday Night -; StL; 
3. Blitz
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig – EFA; StL; 
5. His Three Daughters – Gothams;

On the Radar:

1. Moana 2 (Disney) – Globes; 
2. Piece by Piece (Focus Features) – MMCG; 
3. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (Warner Bros)
4. Transformers One (Paramount Pictures) -MMCG; SFCS; SD;  
5. That Christmas (Netflix)

On the Radar:

1. Kneecap (Ireland)
2. Santosh (United Kingdom) – NBR; 
3. Flow (Latvia) – Spirits; SFCS; WAFCA; 
4. Dahomey (Senegal) – Berlin; WAFCA; StL; 
5. In Her Place (Chile)

On the Radar:

1. Porcelain War – Sundance; 
2. Black Box Diaries – IDA; NBR; Sundance; CEH;
3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat – IDA; EFA; CEH; Gothams; Spirits; 
4. Dahomey – IDA; NBR; Gothams; EFA; CEH; SFCS; WAFCA; LAFCA; 
5. Music by John Williams – CCA; StL; 

On the Radar:

1. Jomo Fray (Nickel Boys) – NYFCC; Spirits; SFCS; WAFCA; LAFCA; StL; 
2. John Mathieson (Gladiator II)
3. Paul Guilhaume (Emilia Pérez)
4. Phedon Papamichael (A Complete Unknown)
5. Alice Brooks (Wicked: Part 1) – SD; 

On the Radar:

1. Myron Kerstein (Wicked: Part 1) – WAFCA; 
2. Sam Restivo and Claire Simpson (Gladiator II)
3. Hansjörg Weißbrich (September 5) – Spirits; SD; LAFCA; StL; 
4. Andrew Buckland (A Complete Unknown)
5. Nathan Orloff and Shane Reid (Saturday Night) – StL; 

On the Radar:

1. Suzie Davies and Roberta Fererico (Conclave) – SFCS; SD; StL; 
2. Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock (Blitz) – LAFCA; 
3. Colin Gibson, Sophie Nash, and Katie Sharrock (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga) – SFCS; 
4. Tom Brown, Guy Hendrix Dyas, and Sandro Piccarozzi (Maria)
5. Jess Gonchor and Claudia Bonfe (Saturday Night)

On the Radar:

1. Lisy Christl (Conclave) – SFCS; SD;  
2. Jacqueline Durran (Blitz)
3. Colleen Atwood (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice) – SD;  
4. Jenny Beavan (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga) – SFCS; 
5. Emmanuelle Youchnovski (The Substance)

On the Radar:

1. A Different Man
2. Emilia Pérez
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
4. Gladiator II
5. Saturday Night

Next on the Longlist (announced 12/8):

1. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga – SFCS; StL; 
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
4. Deadpool and Wolverine
5. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

On the Radar:

1. Twisters
2. A Complete Unknown
3. Conclave
4. The Substance
5. The Brutalist

On the Radar:

1. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (Challengers) – Globes; SFCS; WAFCA; LAFCA; StL; 
2. Jon Batiste (Saturday Night)
3. Harry Gregson-Williams (Gladiator II)
4. Robin Carolan (Nosferatu) – WAFCA; 
5. Hans Zimmer (Blitz) – WAFCA; 

On the Radar:

1. “Compress/Repress” (Challengers) – Globes; 
2. “Like a Bird” (Sing Sing)
3. “Piece by Piece” (Piece by Piece)
4. “I Always Wanted a Brother” (Mufasa: The Lion King)
5. “Beyond” (Moana 2)

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Mark Johnson

Mark Johnson has been a prominent voice in film coverage and the Oscar race since 2009. He launched his career with his own website, Award Contenders, before joining forces with Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit from 2011 to 2020. After continuing his insightful work at Awards Daily from 2020 to 2024, Mark now contributes to both The Contending and AwardsWatch. His renowned Oscar predictions column, The Awards Alchemist (formerly Good As Gold), has solidified his reputation in the industry. A member of the Critics Choice Association, Mark regularly attends major film festivals, including Telluride, Nantucket, and Middleburg, offering in-depth analysis and predictions throughout awards season.

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