2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR and BEST ACTRESS (May)

In the acting races this early in the season, like in Best Picture and Best Director, we have a handful of films seen from the Sundance, Berlin and SXSW film festivals with Cannes peering around the corner next week but a lot, A LOT of ‘looks good on paper.’

So far, Best Actor appears to be a bit more stacked than its counterpart with several possible returning nominees (and winners) in the form of Timothée Chalamet (who could go back to back noms following up A Complete Unknown with Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Paul Mescal (The History of Sound), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), Colin Farrell (The Ballad of a Small Player), George Clooney (Jay Kelly) and Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest). They’ll fight off first time hopefuls like Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me From Nowhere), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and more. I’m also keeping an eye on two Searchlight Pictures men, recent winner Brendan Fraser in Rental Family and Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?, the latter of which just recently wrapped production under Bradley Cooper’s direction. A Telluride or Toronto debut feels likely for one or both, if they’re ready for this year.

Best Actress also looks to bring back some previous winners to the fold with Julia Roberts and Jennifer Lawrence at the top of the list. Roberts could be back in the she said/she said drama After the Hunt from Luca Guadagnino (whose recent Oscar track record has been non-existent) and Lawrence will debut Lynne Ramsay’s Die, My Love at Cannes next week and buzz around her mother!-like performance is building. It’s just a matter of who picks it at or after the festival and if Lawrence or the film can pick up and award of two. Ramsay’s last film, 2017’s You Were Never Really Here, was a double Cannes winner with Best Actor for Joaquin Phoenix and Ramsay for Screenplay. Granted, that film went nowhere when it came to the Oscars, even with, like Lawrence, a previous winner front and center. The bidding war for the film, especially if it comes out a victor, could be one for the books.

Two-time Best Actress winner Jodie Foster went an astonishing 29 years between nominations when she earned one two years ago in supporting actress for Nyad. She could return in the Cannes out of competition title Vie Privée from Sony Pictures Classic, who will also be looking to earn a second nomination for 95-year old June Squibb for her role in Scarlett Johansson’s feature film directorial debut Eleanor the Great, also debuting at Cannes.

I feel very strong about Renate Reinsve in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, a reunion after their Oscar-nominated The Worst Person in the World. The NEON release will premiere in competition at Cannes the week after next and it’s hard to her and the film not performing well there and the campaign to begin. A second nomination for Jessie Buckley could also be on the horizon for Hamnet from triple Oscar winner Chloé Zhao. The Focus Features adaptation of the Maggie O’Farrell fictional story of Agnes, the wife of William Shakespeare, as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, the titular Hamnet, will likely find its debut at Venice or Telluride (possibly screening at both) and setting the stage for her.

Also at this early and unseen stage are potential category placements that could be up in the air. Namely, Emma Stone in Bugonia, who could go either way. Also a two-time Best Actress winner, she could take a cue from her Oscar-winning co-star of The Favourite, Olivia Colman, and turn a juicy supporting turn into a lead campaign. For the moment I’m going with her in supporting, but with the two supporting winners from this last season being bonafide co-leads of their films, anything is possible.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Actor and Best Actress for May.

BEST ACTOR

Next up: Will Arnett – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures), Daniel Day-Lewis – Anemone (Focus Features), Idris Elba – Untitled Kathryn Bigelow (Netflix), Brendan Fraser – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures), Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein (Netflix), Matthew McConaughey – The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films), Dylan O’Brien – Twinless (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) – Sundance winner, Josh O’Connor – The Mastermind (MUBI)

Other contenders: Murray Bartlett – At the Sea (TBD), Austin Butler – Caught Stealing (A24), Willem Dafoe – Late Flame (TBD), Benicio Del Toro – The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams (Netflix), Colin Farrell – A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures/TriStar), Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (TBD), Brad Pitt – F1 (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros), Tonatiuh – Kiss of the Spider Woman (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)

Lead or supporting? Tom Hiddleston – The Life of Chuck (NEON)

2026? Robert Pattinson – The Drama (A24)

BEST ACTRESS

Next up: Rebecca Ferguson – Untitled Kathryn Bigelow (Netflix), Emma Mackey – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Helen Mirren – Switzerland (TBD), Margot Robbie – A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (Sony Pictures/TriStar), Amanda Seyfried – Ann Lee (TBD)

Other contenders: Amy Adams – At the Sea (TBD), Cate Blanchett – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI), Olivia Colman – The Roses (Searchlight Pictures), Zoey Deutch – Nouvelle Vague (TBD), Anne Hathaway – Mother Mary (A24), Jessica Lange – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (TBD), Lucy Liu – Rosemead (TBD), Jenna Ortega – Klara and the Sun (Sony Pictures)

Lead or supporting? Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine (A24), Laura Dern – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures), Emma Stone – Bugonia (Focus Features)

2026? Zendaya – The Drama (A24)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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