2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST CASTING (October)

The top 10 here remains the same but with some crucial movement, especially in the top 5 for Wicked: For Good and Wake Up Dead Man rise, while Hamnet tumbles a bit and Sentimental Value now sits just outside.

Elsewhere, Marty Supreme and Bugonia move up and Train Dreams enters the race.

For some backstory on this new category, casting directors did not have a branch of their own until 2013, as they were a part of the Members-at-Large branch. After casting got their own branch, 210 members were pulled from Members-at-Large to create it and as of today, has more than doubled in size to 544 people, making them the second-fastest growing branch in the Academy, after only Documentary. Actors remain the largest individual branch but shrinking in terms of percentage every year.

First, let’s look at the official rules for the category, which were codified earlier this year, because while they answer certain questions, they definitely raise others.

–There will be a preliminary round of voting to determine a shortlist of 10 films, and prior to nominations voting, Casting Directors Branch members will be invited to view a “bake-off” presentation of the shortlisted achievements, including a Q&A with the designated nominees.

–The Branch Executive Committee will then meet to discuss and determine which casting directors – not to exceed two in number – are primarily responsible for the casting and who have received onscreen credit. Producers and directors may be consulted in determining the contribution of potential nominees. Under exceptional circumstances (e.g., specialized casting, essential casting in multiple locations) the Branch Executive Committee will consider and determine the eligibility of one additional credited individual.

–The casting directors associated with the ten films on the shortlist for nominations shall be requested to provide the committee with the following:

-Written descriptions of the casting process unique to their films and of their personal involvement in that process. A template for the statement with the guidelines regarding length and scope will be provided by the Branch Executive Committee.

-Photo grid of the cast and/or the full cast list.

–Achievements shall be judged within the parameters defined by the Executive Committee and on the basis of significant engagement and collaboration with a film’s director and producers in the creative consideration, and selection of the actors who comprise the acting ensemble of the film.

Here are my 2026 Oscar predictions in Best Casting for October.

Other contenders: After the Hunt – Jessica Ronane (Amazon MGM), Avatar: Fire and Ash – Margery Simkin (20th Century Studios), Ballad of a Small Player – Nina Gold, Martin Ware (Netflix), Blue Moon – Áine O’Sullivan, Olivia Scott-Webb (Sony Pictures Classics), Eddington – Ellen Chenoweth (A24), Highest 2 Lowest – Kim Coleman (Apple/A24), Kiss of the Spider Woman – Adam Caldwell, Tiffany Little Canfield (Roadside Attractions) ↓, The Life of Chuck – Anne McCarthy, Morgan Robbins, Kellie Roy (NEON), The Lost Bus – Francine Maisler (Apple), The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues (NEON) ↓, The Testament of Ann Lee – Beatrix Nemesházi, Isabella Odoffin (Searchlight Pictures)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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