2026 Oscar Predictions: INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (September)
With more nominations than any other country, France is in a unique position this year. Back with another Cannes winner (but without the baggage that Emilia Pérez brought last season), Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident came away with the Palme d’Or from the Juliette Binoche-led jury and has NEON backing it. With this choice, Panahi becomes only the third non-French director to be chosen in the 70+ years the country has been in competition. But after its 42 nominations and 12 wins (including three Honorary before it became a competitive category) they hit a wall in 1992 when Indochine became the last winner from the country. They got very close last year until it all fell apart and Brazil’s I’m Still Here was there to pick up the pieces. This is their best shot in decades. But, as you can see with my top three, NEON has an embarrassment of riches this year and will have to do some historic levels of juggling to keep all of these top contenders, who are also Best Picture candidates and more, all at the top.
Check out this week’s podcast, which goes deeper into the International Feature Film race here.
Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in International Feature Film for September.
| 1. Norway — Sentimental Value (NEON) | Cannes Grand Prize |
| 2. France — It Was Just an Accident (NEON) | Cannes Palme d’Or |
| 3. Brazil — The Secret Agent (NEON) | Cannes Best Director, Best Actor |
| 4. Taiwan — Left-Handed Girl (Netflix) | |
| 5. Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (TBD) | Venice Grand Jury Prize |
| 6. Iraq — The President’s Cake (Sony Pictures Classics) | Cannes Camera d’Or, Directors Fortnight Audience Award |
| 7. Denmark — Mr. Nobody Against Putin (TBD) | Sundance World Cinema Documentary Special Jury Award |
| 8. Germany — Sound of Falling (MUBI) | Cannes Jury Prize |
| 9. Jordan — All That’s Left of You (Watermelon Pictures/Visibility Films) | |
| 10. South Korea — No Other Choice (NEON) | TIFF People’s Choice International Award |
| 11. Palestine — Palestine 36 (Watermelon Pictures) | |
| 12. Spain — Sirāt (NEON) | Cannes Jury Prize |
| 13. Ukraine — 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS Distribution) | |
| 14. The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo (Chile) | Cannes Un Certain Regard |
| 15. Canada — The Things You Kill (Cineverse) | Sundance World Cinema Dramatic Directing Award |
| 16. Hungary — Orphan (TBD) | |
| 17. Switzerland — Late Shift (Music Box Films) | |
| 18. Belgium — Young Mothers (Music Box Films) | Cannes Best Screenplay |
| 19. Poland — Franz (TBD) | |
| 20. Mexico — We Shall Not Be Moved (TBD) |
Other contenders: Colombia — A Poet (TBD), Iceland — The Love That Remains (Janus Films), India — Homebound (TBD), Italy — Family (TBD), Japan — Kokuhô (GKids), Philippines — Magellan (Janus Films)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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