2026 Oscar Predictions: MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING and VISUAL EFFECTS (October)
Continuing the below the line predictions for October brings us to more categories that receive shortlist attention before Oscar nomination voting begins: Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects.
We can certainly expect the return of Wicked, which earned a nomination here last year for the first film, to show up for its sequel, Wicked: For Good. But the extraordinarily complicated makeup application of Jacob Elordi’s creature makeup in Frankenstein (a 10-hour process) should find itself the frontrunner here. After the gushy gore of The Substance last year (which won), Weapons has a great jumping off point for horror makeup to continue to be taken more seriously here.
In visual effects, if it’s an Avatar year it’s pretty much over. While several films will be in the running for shortlist and nomination attention this race is about as easy to call as California for a Democrat presidential election. That being said, it should be an interesting lineup from shortlist to nominations that will cover horror, action, sci-fi, fantasy and more with very little in the way of original films (Sinners, F1) and a lot of sequels and IP.
The Oscar shortlists will be announced on December 16. Makeup and Hair Stylists guild (MUAH) will reveal their nominations on December 29 while the Visual Effects Society (VES) nominations will come January 13.
Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions for Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects for October.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (shortlist of 10)
| 1. Frankenstein (Netflix) |
| 2. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) |
| 3. Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 4. Weapons (Warner Bros/New Line) |
| 5. The Smashing Machine (A24) |
| 6. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) |
| 7. 28 Years Later (Sony Pictures) |
| 8. Hamnet (Focus Features) |
| 9. Bugonia (Focus Features) |
| 10. Christy (Black Bear) |
Other contenders: Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside Attractions), Marty Supreme (A24)
VISUAL EFFECTS (shortlist of 10)
| 1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios) |
| 2. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) |
| 3. Frankenstein (Netflix) |
| 4. F1: The Movie (Warner Bros/Apple Original Films) |
| 5. Superman (Warner Bros) |
| 6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (Paramount Pictures) |
| 7. Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 8. Tron: Ares (Walt Disney) |
| 9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (Universal Pictures) |
| 10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (Walt Disney/Marvel) |
Other contenders: Captain America: Brave New World (Walt Disney/Marvel), How to Train Your Dragon (Universal Pictures), Lilo & Stitch (Walt Disney), A Minecraft Movie (Warner Bros), Predator: Badlands (20th Century Studios), The Running Man (Paramount Pictures)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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