2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (July)
Holding onto this top for at least one more month as the coming days will shower us with festival announcements that will shape and reshape what August predictions will look like.
Biggest news in this category is the first trailer for Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt, which positions Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield and Ayo Edebiri for potential awards contention but Guadagnino hasn’t seen a film of his be an awards magnet since 2017’s Call Me By Your Name despite accolades and reviews that have back up Challengers, Queer and more since then.
Glenn Close is the hot new bombshell entering the villa with her film The Summer Book, which premiered at Toronto last year, finally getting picked up for U.S. distribution. Music Box Films will handle its release in the states. It’s not known if they’ll campaign close in supporting or lead for the Finnish film but I’d say supporting. It’s certainly the ‘right’ choice but categories be damned in this day and age. But, with the high profile of her role in Wake Up Dead Man (which will have a splashy WP at TIFF), The Summer Book will be in the shadow of that film. MBF also recently took the reins of A Little Prayer starring David Strathairn and Jane Levy from Sony Pictures Classics and will release it later this year, over two and a half years after its festival premiere at Sundance.
Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actress for July.
| 1. Emma Stone – Bugonia (Focus Features) |
| 2. Ayo Edebiri – After the Hunt (Amazon MGM) |
| 3. Gwyneth Paltrow – Marty Supreme (A24) |
| 4. Laura Dern – Jay Kelly (Netflix) |
| 5. Glenn Close – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) |
| 6. Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine* (A24) |
| 7. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value (NEON) |
| 8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value (NEON) |
| 9. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 10. Ariana Grande – Wicked For Good (Universal Pictures) |
| 11. Mari Yamamoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 12. Hailee Steinfeld – Sinners (Warner Bros) |
| 13. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) |
| 14. Jennifer Lopez – Kiss of the Spider Woman (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) |
| 15. America Ferrera – The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films) |
| 16. Glenn Close – The Summer Book* (Music Box) |
| 17. Sissy Spacek – Die My Love (MUBI) |
| 18. Laura Dern – Is This Thing On?* (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 19. Michaela Coel – Mother Mary (A24) |
| 20. Felicity Jones – Train Dreams (Netflix) |
Next up: Fala Chen – Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix), Zoey Deutch* – Nouvelle Vague (Netflix), Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros), Nina Hoss – Hedda (Amazon MGM), Emily Mortimer – Jay Kelly (Netflix), Katy O’Brien – Untitled Christy Martin biopic (TBD), Margaret Qualley – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), Son Ye-jin – No Other Choice (MUBI), Tilda Swinton – The Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix), Mia Threapleton – The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features)
Other contenders: Amy Adams – Klara and the Sun (Sony Pictures), Kerry Condon – Pressure (Focus Features), Jamie Lee Curtis – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Virginie Efira – Vie Privée (Sony Pictures Classics), Rebecca Ferguson* – A House of Dynamite (Netflix), Mia Goth – Frankenstein (Netflix), Gaby Hoffmann – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios), Vicky Krieps – Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (MUBI), Angelina LookingGrass – The Rivals of Amziah King (TBD), Thomasin McKenzie – Ann Lee (TBD), Samantha Morton – Anemone (Focus Features), Alicia Silverstone – Bugonia (Focus Features), Emily Watson – Hamnet (Focus Features)
*Lead or supporting? Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine (A24), Glenn Close – The Summer Book* (Music Box), Laura Dern – Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures), Zoey Deutch – Nouvelle Vague (Netflix), Rebecca Ferguson – A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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