2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (October)

Supporting Actress has lost a contender for October in Chase Infiniti. The One Battle After Another ingenue has been announced to be campaigned as lead actress, leaving her co-star mother Teyana Taylor a wide berth at the top spot and opening the door for Regina Hall to have a shot.

Marty Supreme was the NYFF secret screening and we got our first look at Gwyneth Paltrow’s hopes of returning to the Oscars, who hasn’t been nominated since her Best Actress win for 1998’s Shakespeare in Love, as well as Odessa D’Azion (daughter of Emmy Award winner Pamela Adlon) in the film. Interestingly, Adlon’s onscreen daughter from Better Things, Mikey Madison, is our most recent Best Actress winner (for Best Picture winner Anora). Now it’s time for the real thing to step up to the plate.

Have I come around to Ariana Grande making Oscar history by being the first person to be nominated in Supporting Actress for the same role in two different films? Maybe. History is a weird thing. Something doesn’t happen until happens. Why have all other categories seen it but not this one? Other than the roles/characters simply haven’t translated over to sequels or second parts in the same way. Fear not, Arianators, I’m getting there.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actress for October.

Other contenders: Glenn Close – The Summer Book (Music Box), Jamie Lee Curtis – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Fran Drescher – Marty Supreme (A24), Mia Goth – Frankenstein (Netflix), Gaby Hoffmann – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios), America Ferrera – The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films) ↓, Thomasin McKenzie – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures), Katy O’Brien – Christy (Black Bear), Margaret Qualley – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), Son Ye-jin – No Other Choice (NEON), Sissy Spacek – Die My Love (MUBI), Mia Threapleton – The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Mari Yamamoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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