2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (September)

If you’re seeing double, don’t worry. If you’re seeing double, don’t worry. This month feature no less than three films with at least two supporting contenders that could create the puzzle pieces for this category come January.

One Battle After Another and Sentimental Value are the major players in the running for dual nominations as Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti explode on the scene while Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning have been here since Cannes. The Sinners ladies, Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld are also in play.

While a film getting two nominations here is far from uncommon (it’s happened more than 30 times), two films getting two actresses in is something has only happened once in the 90 years of this category (1949, when Celeste Holm and Elsa Lanchester got in for Come to the Stable and Ethel Barrymore and Ethel Waters both got in for Pinky). So what does that mean for this films and performances? It means being a bit judicious about spreading out the likelihood of votes. But which pairing, if any, will make the cut? The recency bias of One Battle After Another rockets both Taylor and Infiniti to the top for me this month and each have substantial screen time and impact to both find a place. But the Sentimental sisters still linger and do with the likes of the zeitgeisty Amy Madigan in Weapons (can that last a whole season?) and the only performance in my top that remains a mystery, the unseen Gwyneth Paltrow in Marty Supreme.

Here are my 2026 Oscar nomination predictions in Supporting Actress for September.

Next up: Glenn Close – The Summer Book* (Music Box), Fran Drescher – Marty Supreme (A24), Mia Goth – Frankenstein (Netflix), Regina Hall – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros), Katy O’Brien – Christy (Black Bear), Margaret Qualley – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), Son Ye-jin – No Other Choice (MUBI), Sissy Spacek – Die My Love (MUBI), Mia Threapleton – The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features), Mari Yamamoto – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures) ↓

Other contenders: Fala Chen – Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) ↓, Jamie Lee Curtis – Ella McCay (20th Century Studios), Gaby Hoffmann – Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios), Vicky Krieps – Father Mother Sister Brother (MUBI), Thomasin McKenzie – The Testament of Ann Lee (TBD), Samantha Morton – Anemone (Focus Features), Tilda Swinton – Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix),

*Lead or supporting? Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine (A24), Glenn Close – The Summer Book (Music Box), America Ferrera – The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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