2027 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (June)
The Cannes Best Actress prize has never been a very good bellwether for an Oscar outcome. In the last 20 years, only two winners there have turned it into an Academy Award nomination and, interestingly, both were awarded as a part of an ensemble: Penélope Cruz in 2006’s Volver and Karla Sofia Gascón in 2024’s Emilia Pérez. The caveat there being that Rooney Mara won for 2015’s Carol but was nominated in supporting actress at the Oscars while Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) did the same, and won there.
This year’s winners came in a pair: French actress Virginie Efira and Japanese actress Tao Okamoto for Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden. In last month’s predictions, I had Efira in my top 10 before seeing the film (only a clip was available at the time) and it seemed she could be more of a lead than Okamoto. After having seen it, the two women are definitely co-leads but I suspect that distributor NEON will want to split the two into lead and supporting categories for a higher chance of success, pushing Okamoto to supporting. Anyone who is an Oscar watcher knows that, while it used to be commonplace for two performers to be nominated in lead from the same film, it hasn’t happened in this category since Susan Sarandon and Geena Davis in 1991’s Thelma & Louise. We can look right back to Carol, where Cate Blanchett was nominated for Best Actress while Mara, who actually has more screen time, was nominated in supporting.
Elsewhere, I’m feeling good about my top two of Renate Reinsve and Sandra Hüller, the former in the now Palme d’Or winner Fjord and the latter in the Best Director winner Fatherland. Both recent previous nominees in this category only keeps their stock high. Reinsve also currently stars in the Backrooms, which just drew the biggest opening weekend box for an original horror film of all time.
Netflix picked up comp title Gentle Monster, starring Léa Seydoux, so they’ll give it a push this season despite the film having some pretty dicey subject matter. Inde Navarrette enters the race for the blockbuster horror Obsession, but I’m keeping her out of the top 10 for now. Yes, Amy Madigan just won a few months ago for a gory horror performance but one, it was in supporting and two, she’s a Hollywood legend and previous nominee. Navarrette’s performance is certainly being heralded but the Academy doing something different is rarely a sign of a trend and often more a one-off. Even if you include Michael B. Jordan’s win for Sinners, that film broke the all-time record with 16 nominations, Jordan won SAG and has been a working actor in the industry since he was a tween. Navarrette’s hill is just much higher to climb. So with that, in June, I remain dubious of her chances until proven otherwise when kudos and nominations start at year’s end.
Here are my 2027 Oscar nomination predictions in Best Actress for June.
| 1. Renate Reinsve – Fjord (NEON) |
| 2. Sandra Hüller – Fatherland (MUBI) |
| 3. Mikey Madison – The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures/Columbia) |
| 4. Daisy Edgar-Jones – Sense and Sensibility (Focus Features) |
| 5. Julianne Moore – Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical Comedy aka No One Cares (A24) |
| 6. Virginie Efira – All of a Sudden (NEON) |
| 7. Rachel Brosnahan – Saturn Return (Netflix) |
| 8. Léa Seydoux – Gentle Monster (Netflix) |
| 9. Cate Blanchett – Sweetsick (Searchlight Pictures) |
| 10. Sandra Hüller – Rose (MUBI) |
Next up: Cho Yeo-jong – Possible Love (Netflix), Penélope Cruz – Bunker (TBD), Cynthia Erivo – Prima Facie (TBD), Patsy Ferran – Jack of Spades (TBD), Jeon Do-yeon – Possible Love (Netflix), Scarlett Johansson – Paper Tiger (NEON), Ruth Madeley – Being Heumann (Apple Original Films), Inde Navarrette – Obsession (Focus Features), Tao Okamoto – All of a Sudden (NEON), Sophie Okonedo – Clarissa (NEON), Léa Seydoux – The Unknown (NEON), Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century Studios), Michelle Williams – A Place in Hell (NEON), Zendaya – The Drama (A24)
Lead or Supporting? Scarlett Johansson – Paper Tiger (NEON), Tao Okamoto – All of a Sudden (NEON)
The full list:
Pamela Anderson – Love Is Not the Answer (TBD)
Marion Bailey – Untitled Mike Leigh Film (Bleecker Street)
Juliette Binoche – Queen at Sea (Greenwich Entertainment)
Cate Blanchett – Sweetsick (Searchlight Pictures)
Emily Blunt – Disclosure Day (Universal Pictures)
Rachel Brosnahan – Saturn Return (Netflix)
Ellen Burstyn – Place to Be (TBD)
Nastya Golubeva Carax – The Rays and Shadows (TBD)
Jessica Chastain – Heartland (TBD)
Cho Yeo-jong – Possible Love (Netflix)
Arden Choi – Perfect Girl (TBD)
Olivia Colman – Wicker (Black Bear)
Jodie Comer – The Death of Robin Hood (A24)
Jodie Comer – The Last Disturbance of Madeline Hynde (TBD)
Penélope Cruz – Bunker (TBD)
Ana de Armas – Sweat (TBD)
Daisy Edgar-Jones – A Place in Hell (NEON)
Daisy Edgar-Jones – Sense and Sensibility (Focus Features)
Virginie Efira – All of a Sudden (NEON)
Cynthia Erivo – Prima Facie (TBD)
Hannah Einbinder – Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (MUBI)
Patsy Ferran – Jack of Spades (TBD)
Hafsia Herzi – The Birthday Party (TBD)
Anne Hathaway – The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century Studios)
Sandra Hüller – Fatherland (MUBI)
Sandra Hüller – Rose (MUBI)
Isabelle Huppert – Parallel Tales (TBD)
Jeon Do-yeon – Possible Love (Netflix)
Scarlett Johansson – Paper Tiger (NEON)
Rinko Kikuchi – Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty! (Sony Pictures Classics)
Barbara Lennie – Bitter Christmas (Sony Pictures Classics)
Veronica Llinas – The Most Intimate Betrayal (Netflix)
Ruth Madeley – Being Heumann (Apple Original Films)
Mikey Madison – The Social Reckoning (Sony Pictures/Columbia)
Helen Mirren – A Talent for Murder (TBD)
Julianne Moore – Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical Comedy aka No One Cares (A24)
Sandra Oh – Child’s Play (TBD)
Sophie Okonedo – Clarissa (NEON)
Jenna Ortega – Klara and the Sun (Sony Pictures/Columbia)
Natalie Portman – Good Sex (Netflix)
Natalie Portman – Photograph 51 (TBD)
Noomi Rapace – Hot Spot (Focus Features)
Mason Reeves – Josephine (Summerian Films)
Renate Reinsve – Fjord (NEON)
Andrea Riseborough – Queen of Fashion (TBD)
Julia Roberts – Panic Carefully (Warner Bros)
Adeline Rudolph – Perfect Girl (TBD)
Léa Seydoux – Gentle Monster (TBD)
Léa Seydoux – The Unknown (NEON)
Amanda Seyfried – The Life and Deaths of Wilson Shedd (TBD)
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Century Studios)
Marisa Tomei – She Gets It From Me (TBD)
Rachel Weisz – Seance of a Wet Afternoon (TBD)
Olivia Wilde – The Invite (A24)
Michelle Williams – A Place in Hell (NEON)
Rachel Zegler – She Gets It From Me (TBD)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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