33rd Film Independent Spirit Awards Winner Predictions

Last year, Moonlight blew through the Independent Spirit Awards, winning everything is was nominated for, including Best Feature and Best Screenplay, and the juried Robert Altman Award for its ensemble. Although there is no crossover voting period between the Independent Spirits airing and the Oscars, Moonlight‘s win continued a four-year streak of the same film winning the top prize with both awards bodies. This year, there are three films in Best Feature that are also Best Picture Oscar-nominated: Call Me By Your Name, Get Out and Lady Bird. There is a distinct chance that it could happen again this year, depending on where your Oscar predictions are.

The top race, and a handful of others, is likely going to be between Call Me By Your Name and Get Out. Both are up against each other in multiple categories including Director, Actor and Editing. I think Get Out has an edge by having a Screenplay nom where Call Me By Your Name is snubbed. It’s too bad The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri aren’t nominated despite both being eligible here.

I’m excited that Male Lead will likely be between Oscar nominees Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name) and Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out). The pair of have become fast friends on the awards trail, losing to Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) every step of the way. I’m going with Chalamet to win here but won’t be surprised if Kaluuya takes it as part of a Get Out sweep.

Three Billboards is likely to find wins in Female Lead and Supporting Male but Screenplay should prove to be a tough fight with Get Out and Lady Bird in the mix. I’m going with Get Out there.

As at the Oscars, Supporting Female should be between Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird). Janney has won everything going in but if there was anywhere Metcalf could finally upset here it would be here. I can see also see a really good chance for Lois Smith in Marjorie Prime. I’m going out on a limb a bit and predicting Metcalf (but it’s probably going to be Janney).

Here are the rest of my winner predictions for the 33rd Film Independent Spirit Awards, which will air live on Saturday March 3 and be hosted once again by Nick Kroll and John Mulaney.

BEST FEATURE

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
PRODUCERS: Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Rodgrigo Teixeira, Marco Morabito, James Ivory, Howard Rosenman

THE FLORIDA PROJECT
PRODUCERS: Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch, Kevin Chinoy, Andrew Duncan, Alex Saks, Francesca Silvestri, Shih-Ching Tsou

GET OUT (predicted winner)
PRODUCERS: Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele

LADY BIRD
PRODUCERS: Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill, Scott Rudin

THE RIDER
PRODUCERS: Mollye Asher, Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Harroche, Chloé Zhao

(Award given to the producer)

BEST FIRST FEATURE

COLUMBUS (predicted winner)
DIRECTOR: Kogonada
PRODUCERS: Danielle Renfrew Behrens, Aaron Boyd, Giulia Caruso, Ki Jin Kim, Andrew Miano, Chris Weitz

INGRID GOES WEST
DIRECTOR: Matt Spicer
PRODUCERS: Jared Goldman, Adam Mirels, Robert Mirels, Aubrey Plaza, Tim White, Trevor White

MENASHE
DIRECTOR: Joshua Z. Weinstein
PRODUCERS: Yoni Brook, Traci Carlson, Daniel Finkelman, Alex Lipschultz

OH LUCY!
DIRECTOR: Atsuko Hirayanagi
PRODUCERS: Jessica Elbaum, Yukie Kito, Han West

PATTI CAKE$
DIRECTOR: Geremy Jasper
PRODUCERS: Chris Columbus, Michael Gottwald, Dan Janvey, Daniela Taplin Lundberg, Noah Stahl, Rodrigo Teixeira

(Award given to the producer and director)

BEST DIRECTOR

Sean Baker, The Florida Project
Jonas Carpignano, A Ciambra
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Jordan Peele, Get Out (predicted winner)
Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie, Good Time
Chloé Zhao, The Rider

BEST SCREENPLAY

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Azazel Jacobs, The Lovers
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jordan Peele, Get Out (predicted winner)
Mike White, Beatriz at Dinner

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

Kris Avedisian, Kyle Espeleta (story by), Jesse Wakeman (story by), Donald Cried
Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (predicted winner)
Ingrid Jungermann, Women Who Kill
Kogonada, Columbus
David Smith, Matt Spicer, Ingrid Goes West

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD

DAYVEON
WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Amman Abbasi
WRITER: Steven Reneau
PRODUCERS: Lachion Buckingham, Alexander Uhlmann

A GHOST STORY (predicted winner)
WRITER/DIRECTOR: David Lowery
PRODUCERS: Adam Donaghey, Toby Halbrooks, James M. Johnston

LIFE AND NOTHING MORE
WRITER/DIRECTOR: Antonio Méndez Esparza
PRODUCERS: Amadeo Hernández Bueno, Alvaro Portanet Hernández, Pedro Hernández Santos

MOST BEAUTIFUL ISLAND
WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Ana Asensio
PRODUCERS: Larry Fessenden, Noah Greenberg, Chadd Harbold, Jenn Wexler

THE TRANSFIGURATION
WRITER/DIRECTOR: Michael O’Shea
PRODUCER: Susan Leber

(Award given to the best feature made for under $500,000; given to the writer, director and producer)

BEST MALE LEAD

Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (predicted winner)
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Robert Pattinson, Good Time
James Franco, The Disaster Artist

BEST FEMALE LEAD

Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (predicted winner)
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Regina Williams, Life and Nothing More

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Nnamdi Asomugha, Crown Heights
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (predicted winner)
Benny Safdie, Good Time

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (predicted winner)
Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
Taliah Lennice Webster, Good Time

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Thimios Bakatakis, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Elisha Christian, Columbus
Hélène Louvart, Beach Rats
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me by Your Name
Joshua James Richards, The Rider (predicted winner)

BEST EDITING

Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie, Good Time (predicted winner)
Walter Fasano, Call Me by Your Name
Alex O’Flinn, The Rider
Gregory Plotkin, Get Out
Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

BPM (BEATS PER MINUTE) (France)
DIRECTOR: Robin Campillo

A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Chile) (predicted winner)
DIRECTOR: Sebastián Lelio

I AM NOT A WITCH (UK)
DIRECTOR: Rungano Nyoni

LADY MACBETH (UK)
DIRECTOR: William Oldroyd

LOVELESS (Russia)
DIRECTOR: Andrey Zvyagintsev

BEST DOCUMENTARY

THE DEPARTURE
DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Lana Wilson

FACES PLACES (predicted winner)
DIRECTORS: Agnés Varda, JR
PRODUCER: Rosalie Varda

LAST MEN IN ALEPPO
DIRECTOR: Feras Fayyad
PRODUCERS: Kareem Abeed, Steen Jespersen, Stefan Kloos

MOTHERLAND
DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Ramona S. Diaz
PRODUCER: Rey Cuerdo

QUEST
DIRECTOR: Jonathan Olshefski
PRODUCER: Sabrina Schmidt Gordon

(Award given to the director and producer)

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD

MUDBOUND

DIRECTOR: Dee Rees
CASTING DIRECTORS: Billy Hopkins, Ashley Ingram
ENSEMBLE CAST: Jonathan Banks, Mary J. Blige, Jason Clarke, Garrett Hedlund, Jason Mitchell, Rob Morgan, Carey Mulligan

(Award given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast)

JEEP TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD

THE CAGE FIGHTER (predicted winner)
DIRECTOR: Jeff Unay

DISTANT CONSTELLATION
DIRECTOR: Shevaun Mizrahi

QUEST
DIRECTOR: Jonathan Olshefski

KIEHL’s SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD

DAYVEON
DIRECTOR: Amman Abbasi

GOOK (predicted winner)
DIRECTOR: Justin Chon

SUPER DARK TIMES
DIRECTOR: Kevin Phillips

PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD

Giulia Caruso & Ki Jin Kim
Ben LeClair
Summer Shelton

AMERICAN AIRLINES BONNIE AWARD

So Yong Kim
Lynn Shelton
Chloé Zhao (predicted winner)