39th Spirit Awards Predictions: Will Oscar Nominees Prevail or Will Oscar Snubs Find Love?

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The 39th Film Independent Spirit Awards are tomorrow and with one of the least amount of Oscar crossover in quite some time. In the last 10-15 years the Spirit Awards have been a bit of a surprise beacon of eventual Oscar winners and that was even when they still had their show the day before the Academy Awards. This year sees just a handful of Oscar nominees who showed up here first but those are also the most-nominated films here: American Fiction and Past Lives, with five apiece.

In the two acting categories – lead and supporting consisting of 10 nominees – only Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) in lead and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) and Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) in supporting found themselves with Oscar nods. Even with an increase in the budget eligibility (now $28M) that wasn’t enough for higher price tag features like Barbie, Oppenhemier and Maestro.

The Spirit Awards Nominating Committees are comprised of writers, directors, producers, cinematographers, editors, actors, critics, casting directors, film festival programmers and other working film professionals. But once we get to the winner stage it’s open to anyone with a Film Independent membership, often dubbed the ‘Film Twitter’ awards. But even with that moniker the winners are often close to Oscars. In fact, in 39 years only once has a non-Best Picture Oscar nominee beat out an Oscar nominee for Spirit Awards’ Best Feature, when Lulu Wang’s 2019 film The Farewell bested Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story. So is it safe to go with a Best Picture Oscar nominee here at least the closest to it if there aren’t any? You bet. Which would put Past Lives or American Fiction right at the top. I expect Past Lives to triumph here and while American Fiction seems like a very possible runner-up I can’t help but think that the post-Oscar snub popularity of films like May December and All of Us Strangers could be strong pushes for FI voters.

The 39th Film Independent Spirit Awards, hosted by Saturday Night Live alum Aidy Bryant, will take place on Sunday, February 25, 2024. The in-person show, held at the beach in Santa Monica, will be streamed live on the IMDb and Film Independent YouTube channels, and across other social platforms.

Here are my predictions for the 39th Film Independent Spirit Awards for film and television, where I expect Beef, The Last of Us to do well.

BEST FEATURE (Award given to the producer)

Predicted winner: Past Lives
Producers: David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon

Possible spoiler: All of Us Strangers
Producers: Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Sarah Harvey

Other nominees:

American Fiction
Producers: Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair

May December
Producers: Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon

Passages
Producers: Michel Merkt, Saïd Ben Saïd

We Grown Now
Producers: Minhal Baig, Joe Pirro

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted winner: Celine Song – Past Lives

Possible spoiler: Todd Haynes – May December

Other nominees:

Andrew Haigh – All of Us Strangers
William Oldroyd – Eileen
Ira Sachs – Passages

BEST FIRST FEATURE (Award given to director and producer)
 
Predicted winner: A Thousand and One
Director: A.V. Rockwell
Producers: Julia Lebedev, Rishi Rajani, Eddie Vaisman, Lena Waithe, Brad Weston

Possible spoiler: Earth Mama
Director/Producer: Savanah Leaf
Producers: Sam Bisbee, Shirley O’Connor, Medb Riordan, Cody Ryder

Other nominees:

All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt
Director: Raven Jackson
Producers: Maria Altamirano, Mark Ceryak, Barry Jenkins, Adele Romanski

Chronicles of a Wandering Saint
Director: Tomás Gómez Bustillo
Producers: Gewan Brown, Amanda Freedman

Upon Entry
Directors: Alejandro Rojas, Juan Sebastián Vásquez
Producers: Sergio Adrià, Carlos Juárez, Alba Sotorra, Carles Torras, Xosé Zapata

BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE 
 
Predicted winner: Greta Lee – Past Lives

Possible spoiler: Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers

Other nominees:

Jessica Chastain – Memory
Trace Lysette – Monica
Natalie Portman – May December
Judy Reyes – Birth/Rebirth
Franz Rogowski – Passages
Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Teo Yoo – Past Lives

BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE 
 
Predicted winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Possible spoiler: Charles Melton – May December

Other nominees:

Erika Alexander – American Fiction
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Noah Galvin – Theater Camp
Anne Hathaway – Eileen
Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry
Marin Ireland – Eileen
Catalina Saavedra – Rotting in the Sun
Ben Whishaw – Passages

BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE
 
Predicted winner: Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers

Possible spoiler: Marshawn Lynch – Bottoms

Other nominees:

Atibon Nazaire – Mountains
Tia Nomore – Earth Mama

Anaita Wali Zada – Fremont

BEST SCREENPLAY 

Predicted winner: Celine Song – Past Lives

Possible spoiler: Cord Jefferson – American Fiction

Other nominees:

David Hemingson – The Holdovers
Laura Moss, Brendan J. O’Brien – Birth/Rebirth
Emma Seligman, Rachel Sennott – Bottoms

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
 
Predicted winner: Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik – May December

Possible spoiler: Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt – Theater Camp

Other nominees:
 
Tomás Gómez Bustillo – Chronicles of a Wandering Saint
Laurel Parmet – The Starling Girl
Alejandro Rojas, Juan Sebastián Vásquez – Upon Entry

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Predicted winner: Jomo Fray – All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt

Possible spoiler: Eigil Bryld – The Holdovers

Other nominees:

Katelin Arizmendi – Monica
Pablo Lozano – Chronicles of a Wandering Saint
Pat Scola – We Grown Now
 
BEST EDITING

Predicted winner: Daniel Garber – How to Blow Up a Pipeline

Possible spoiler: Emanuele Tiziani – Upon Entry

Other nominees:
 
Santiago Cendejas, Gabriel Díaz, Sofía Subercaseaux – Rotting in the Sun
Stephanie Filo – We Grown Now
Jon Philpot – Theater Camp
 
BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)

Predicted winner: Kokomo City
Director: D. Smith
Producers: Bill Butler, Harris Doran

Possible spoiler: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
Directors/Producers: Joe Brewster, Michèle Stephenson
Producer: Tommy Oliver

Other nominees:
 
Bye Bye Tiberias
Director: Lina Soualem
Producer: Jean-Marie Nizan
 
Four Daughters
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Producer: Nadim Cheikhrouha
 
The Mother of All Lies
Director/Producer: Asmae El Moudir
 
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
 
Predicted winner: Anatomy of a Fall
France
Director: Justine Triet

Possible spoiler: The Zone of Interest
United Kingdom, Poland, USA
Director: Jonathan Glazer

Other nominees:

Godland
Denmark/Iceland
Director: Hlynur Pálmason

Mami Wata
Nigeria
Director: C.J. ‘Fiery’ Obasi

Tótem
Mexico
Director: Lila Avilés

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD – Given to the best feature made for under $1,000,000 (Award given to the writer, director and producer)

Predicted winner: The Unknown Country
Director/Writer/Producer: Morrisa Maltz
Writer: Lily Gladstone
Writers/Producers: Lainey Bearkiller Shangreaux, Vanara Taing
Producers: Katherine Harper, Laura Heberton, Tommy Heitkamp

Possible spoiler: Fremont
Director/Writer: Babak Jalali
Writer: Carolina Cavalli
Producers: Rachael Fung, Chris Martin, Marjaneh Moghimi, George Rush, Sudnya Shroff, Laura Wagner

Other nominees:

The Artifice Girl
Director/Writer: Franklin Ritch
Producers: Aaron B. Koontz, Ashleigh Snead
 
Cadejo Blanco
Director/Writer/Producer: Justin Lerner
Producers: Mauricio Escobar, Ryan Friedkin, Jack Patrick Hurley

Rotting in the Sun
Director/Writer: Sebastián Silva
Writer: Pedro Peirano
Producer: Jacob Wasserman

PRODUCERS AWARD presented by Bulleit Frontier Whiskey – The Producers Award, now in its 27th year, honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources, demonstrate the creativity, tenacity and vision required to produce quality independent films.
 
Rachael Fung
 
Graham Swon
 
Monique Walton
 
SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD  – The Someone to Watch Award, now in its 30th year, recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition.

Predicted winner: Laura Moss
Director of Birth/Rebirth
 
Possible spoiler: Joanna Arnow
Director of The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed
 
Other nominee: Monica Sorelle
Director of Mountains
 
TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD – The Truer Than Fiction Award, now in its 29th year, is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition.

Predicted winner: Jesse Short Bull, Laura Tomaselli
Director of Lakota Nation vs. United States

Possible spoiler: Set Hernandez
Director of unseen

Other nominee: Sierra Urich
Director of Joonam
 
BEST NEW NON-SCRIPTED OR DOCUMENTARY SERIES (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)
 
Predicted winner: Dear Mama
Executive Producers: Lasse Järvi, Quincy ‘QD3’ Jones III, Staci Robinson, Nelson George, Charles D. King, Peter Nelson, Adel ‘Future’ Nur, Jamal Joseph, Ted Skillman, Allen Hughes, Steve Berman, Marc Cimino, Jody Gerson, John Janick, Nicholas Ferrall, Nigel Sinclair

Possible spoiler: Stolen Youth: Inside the Cult at Sarah Lawrence
Executive Producers: Mindy Goldberg, Dan Cogan, Liz Garbus, Jon Bardin, Zach Heinzerling, Krista Parris, Daniel Barban Levin, Felicia Rosario
Co-Executive Producer: Julie Gaither

Other nominees:

Deadlocked: How America Shaped the Supreme Court
Executive Producers: Vinnie Malhotra, Aaron Saidman, Eli Holzman, Dawn Porter
 
Murder in Big Horn
Executive Producers: Matthew Galkin, Vinnie Malhotra
Co-Executive Producers: Lisa Kalikow, Joshua Levine
 
Wrestlers
Executive Producers: Greg Whiteley, Ryan O’Dowd
Co-Executive Producers: Alejandro Melendez, Adam Leibowitz
 
BEST NEW SCRIPTED SERIES (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)
 
Predicted winner: Beef
Creator/Executive Producer: Lee Sung Jin
Executive Producers: Steven Yeun, Ali Wong, Jake Schreier, Ravi Nandan, Alli Reich
Co-Executive Producers: Alice Ju, Carrie Kemper

Possible spoiler: Jury Duty
Creators/Executive Producers: Lee Eisenberg, Gene Stupnitsky
Executive Producers: David Bernad, Ruben Fleischer, Nicholas Hatton, Cody Heller, Todd Schulman, Jake Szymanski, Andrew Weinberg

Other nominees:
 
Dreaming Whilst Black
Creator/Executive Producer: Adjani Salmon
Creators: Maximilian Evans, Natasha Jatania, Laura Seixas
Executive Producers: Tanya Qureshi, Dhanny Joshi, Bal Samra, Thomas Stogdon
 
I’m a Virgo
Creator/Executive Producer: Boots Riley
Executive Producers: Tze Chun, Michael Ellenberg, Lindsey Springer, Jharrel Jerome, Rebecca Rivo
Co-Executive Producers: Marcus Gardley, Carver Karaszewski
 
Slip
Creator/Executive Producer: Zoe Lister-Jones
Executive Producers: Ro Donnelly, Dakota Johnson, Katie O’Connell Marsh, David Fortier, Ivan Schneeberg
 
BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES

Predicted winner: Steven Yeun – Beef

Possible spoiler: Ali Wong – Beef

Other nominees:
 
Emma Corrin – A Murder at the End of the World
Dominique Fishback – Swarm
Betty Gilpin – Mrs. Davis
Jharrel Jerome – I’m a Virgo
Zoe Lister-Jones – Slip
Bel Powley – A Small Light
Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us
Ramón Rodríguez – Will Trent
 
BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
 
Predicted winner: Nick Offerman – The Last of Us

Possible spoiler: Murray Bartlett – The Last of Us

Other nominees:
 
Billie Eilish – Swarm
Jack Farthing – Rain Dogs
Adina Porter – The Changeling
Lewis Pullman – Lessons in Chemistry
Benny Safdie – The Curse
Luke Tennie – Shrinking
Olivia Washington – I’m a Virgo
Jessica Williams – Shrinking
 
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES

Predicted winner: Keivonn Montreal Woodard – The Last of Us

Possible spoiler: Aria Mia Loberti – All the Light We Cannot See

Other nominees:

Clark Backo – The Changeling
Adjani Salmon – Dreaming Whilst Black
Kara Young – I’m a Virgo