41st Spirit Awards Winner Predictions: In One of the Least Oscary Years in a Decade, it’s Anyone’s Game
In what will surely be a distinct vibe shift, this weekend’s Film Independent Spirit Awards are moving from their famous Santa Monica beach tent location (thanks to the 2028 Olympics) and will now take place at the Hollywood Palladium on Sunset Blvd. At least it means no sand in those open-toed shoes and fewer jackets to ward of the bracing Pacific Ocean wins.
While the nominees are selected by a small jury of industry professionals, Spirit Awards winners are voted on exclusively by Film Independent members. Meaning, any film fan with $100 can receive screeners and vote.
We know that historically, there is quite a bit alignment with Spirit Awards winners in the top categories and Oscar nominees, especially in the Best Feature category. Since the Academy’s expansion of Best Picture, the Spirit Awards winner for Best Feature has been a Best Picture Oscar winner or nominee 13 out of 16 times. In 2018 and 2021, no Best Picture Oscar nominees were up for Best Feature here (which was won by If Beale Street Could Talk and The Lost Daughter, respectively), and in 2019 The Farewell beat Marriage Story. That gives us an idea of how a wider set of voters have often found themselves leaning towards Oscar fare, but also how the Oscars found their way to independent films as their go-to Best Picture contenders. This might be the least Oscary lineup at the Spirit Awards, across the nominations, in a decade.
This year, only one feature is nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars and that’s Clint Bentley’s Train Dreams from Netflix. If you subscribe to the trend and history above, it makes the most sense at the Spirit Awards winner. Eva Victor’s Sorry, Baby (A24) dominated the critics’ season picks for first-time feature director wins and Victor was nominated, but lost, the DGA First-Time Feature award last weekend to Charlie Polinger’s The Plague, which is also up for Best Feature here (along with Peter Hujar’s Day and Twinless).
Connected to that, the Best Director winner has aligned with the Best Feature winner every year since 2104 when both were nominated (Lulu Wang is the exception, as she was not nominated for Best Director but won Best Feature). So, a good bet would be if you’re picking Train Dreams to win Best Feature to pick Bentley in director. Same goes for Victor and Sorry, Baby. The only other director whose film is nominated for Best Feature is Ira Sachs for Peter Hujar’s Day. I think screenplay is where we’ll find Victor victorious.
In the two film acting categories, which are non-gendered groups of ten, Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) should easily be able to claim the win for lead. Not only as the sole Oscar nominee of the bunch but for the sheer love of her performance across critics and industry alike. Supporting Performance gets a little tricky. Although the combining of genders into a 10-nomination category is still very new (it’s only been three years), this is the first time that no one in this group is even Oscar-nominated. Those last three years, the winner here went on to win a supporting Oscar in the actor or actress category. That makes things a bit exciting as it’s almost anyone’s game. I’m going with Nina Hoss for Hedda with Naomi Ackie (Sorry, Baby) as a potential soiler.
While several categories seem relatively easy to predict, like Adolescence continuing its television awards sweep for the show, Owen Cooper and Erin Doherty, the lead performance win for TV is probably a decent fight between Stephen Graham and The Pitt’s Noah Wyle.
The juried Robert Altman Award, given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast, was awarded to The Long Walk (Director: Francis Lawrence; Casting Director: Rich Delia; Ensemble Cast: Judy Greer, Mark Hamill, Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Tut Nyuot, Joshua Odjick, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Garrett Wareing).
Similarly in television, the Best Ensemble Cast in a New Scripted Series went to Chief of War (Ensemble Cast: Charlie Brumbly, Luciane Buchanan, Cliff Curtis, Brandon Finn, Moses Goods, Te Ao o Hinepehinga, Benjamin Hoetjes, Siua Ikale’o, Keala Kahuanui-Paleka, Mainei Kinimaka, Kaina Makua, Jason Momoa, Temuera Morrison, Te Kohe Tuhaka, James Odom).
Also previously announced, the Producers Award, now in its 29th year, honors an emerging producer who, despite highly limited resources, demonstrates the creativity, tenacity and vision required to produce quality independent films. This award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant, went to Tony Yang.
The Someone to Watch Award, now in its 32nd year, recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition. This award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant, went to Tatti Ribeiro for Valentina.
The Truer Than Fiction Award, now in its 31st year, is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition. This award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant, went to Rajee Samarasinghe
for Your Touch Makes Others Invisible.
The Farewell director Lulu Wang will serve as honorary chair at the 2026 Film Independent Spirit Awards.
Presenters this year include Francois Arnaud, Rose Byrne, Kaia Gerber, Judy Greer, Rebecca Hall, Robby Hoffman, Kate Hudson, Regina King, Jane Levy, Delroy Lindo, Amy Madigan, John Magaro, Lamorne Morris, Wunmi Mosaku, Wagner Moura, Kumail Nanjiani, Tig Notaro, Dylan O’Brien, Keke Palmer, Issa Rae, Natasha Rothwell, Jenny Slate and Tessa Thompson, and more.
Here are my winner predictions for the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards, which will take place on Sunday, February 15 and hosted by Ego Nwodim for the first time.
Film Categories
BEST FEATURE (Award given to the producer)
Peter Hujar’s Day
Producers: Jonah Disend, Jordan Drake
The Plague
Producers: Derek Dauchy, Joel Edgerton, Roy Lee, Lucy McKendrick, Steven Schneider, Lizzie Shapiro
Sorry, Baby (Could win)
Producers: Mark Ceryak, Barry Jenkins, Adele Romanski
Train Dreams (Predicted winner)
Producers: Michael Heimler, Will Janowitz, Marissa McMahon, Ashley Schlaifer, Teddy Schwarzman
Twinless
Producers: David Permut, James Sweeney
BEST FIRST FEATURE (Award given to director and producer)
Blue Sun Palace
Director: Constance Tsang
Producers: Sally Sujin Oh, Eli Raskin, Tony Yang
Dust Bunny (Could win)
Director/Producer: Bryan Fuller
Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Erica Lee
East of Wall
Director/Producer: Kate Beecroft
Producers: Shannon Moss, Melanie Ramsayer, Lila Yacoub
Lurker (Predicted winner)
Director: Alex Russell
Producers: Galen Core, Archie Madekwe, Marc Marrie, Charlie McDowell, Francesco Melzi D’Eril, Duncan Montgomery, Alex Orlovsky, Olmo Schnabel, Jack Selby
One of Them Days
Director: Lawrence Lamont
Producers: Deniese Davis, Poppy Hanks, James Lopez, Issa Rae, Sara Rastogi
JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD – Given to the best feature made for under $1,000,000 (Award given to the writer, director and producer)
The Baltimorons (Could win)
Director/Writer/Producer: Jay Duplass
Writer/Producer: Michael Strassner
Producers: David Bonnett Jr., Drew Langer
Boys Go to Jupiter
Director/Writer: Julian Glander
Eephus (Predicted winner)
Director/Writer/Producer: Carson Lund
Writer/Producer: Michael Basta
Writer: Nate Fisher
Producers: David Entin, Tyler Taormina
Esta Isla (This Island)
Directors/Writers/Producers: Cristian Carretero, Lorraine Jones Molina
Writer: Kisha Tikina Burgos
Familiar Touch
Director/Writer/Producer: Sarah Friedland
Producers: Alexandra Byer, Matthew Thurm
BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Bentley (Predicted winner)
Train Dreams
Mary Bronstein
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Lloyd Lee Choi
Lucky Lu
Ira Sachs
Peter Hujar’s Day
Eva Victor (Could win)
Sorry, Baby
BEST SCREENPLAY
Michael Angelo Covino, Kyle Marvin
Splitsville
Angus MacLachlan
A Little Prayer
James Sweeney (Could win)
Twinless
Christian Swegal
Sovereign
Eva Victor (Predicted winner)
Sorry, Baby
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Andrew DeYoung
Friendship
Elena Oxman
Outerlands
Alex Russell (Predicted winner)
Lurker
Syreeta Singleton (Could win)
One of Them Days
Constance Tsang
Blue Sun Palace
BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE
Everett Blunck
The Plague
Rose Byrne (Predicted winner)
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kathleen Chalfant
Familiar Touch
Chang Chen
Lucky Lu
Joel Edgerton
Train Dreams
Dylan O’Brien (Could win)
Twinless
Keke Palmer
One of Them Days
Théodore Pellerin
Lurker
Tessa Thompson
Hedda
Ben Whishaw
Peter Hujar’s Day
BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
Naomi Ackie (Could win)
Sorry, Baby
Zoey Deutch
Nouvelle Vague
Kirsten Dunst
Roofman
Rebecca Hall
Peter Hujar’s Day
Nina Hoss (Predicted winner)
Hedda
Jane Levy
A Little Prayer
Archie Madekwe
Lurker
Kali Reis
Rebuilding
Jacob Tremblay
Sovereign
Haipeng Xu
Blue Sun Palace
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE
Liz Larsen
The Baltimorons
Misha Osherovich
She’s the He
Kayo Martin (Predicted winner)
The Plague
SZA (Could win)
One of Them Days
Tabatha Zimiga
East of Wall
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Alex Ashe
Peter Hujar’s Day
Norm Li
Blue Sun Palace
David J. Thompson
Warfare
Adolpho Veloso (Predicted winner)
Train Dreams
Nicole Hirsch Whitaker (Could win)
Dust Bunny
BEST EDITING
Ben Leonberg (Could win)
Good Boy
Carson Lund
Eephus
Fin Oates (Predicted winner)
Warfare
Sara Shaw
Splitsville
Sofía Subercaseaux
The Testament of Ann Lee
BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)
Come See Me in the Good Light (Could win)
Director/Producer: Ryan White
Producers: Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, Stef Willen
Endless Cookie
Director: Peter Scriver
Director/Producer: Seth Scriver
Producers: Dan Bekerman, Alex Ordanis, Jason Ryle, Chris Yurkovich
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
Director/Producer: Julia Loktev
The Perfect Neighbor (Predicted winner)
Director/Producer: Geeta Gandbhir
Producers: Sam Bisbee, Nikon Kwantu, Alisa Payne
The Tale of Silyan
Director/Producer: Tamara Kotevska
Producers: Jean Dakar, Anna Hashmi, Jordanco Petkovski
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
All That’s Left of You
Palestine, Jordan, Germany, Cyprus
Director: Cherien Dabis
On Becoming a Guinea Fowl
Zambia, UK, Ireland
Director: Rungano Nyoni
A Poet
Colombia
Director: Simón Mesa Soto
The Secret Agent (Predicted winner)
Brazil
Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho
Sirāt (Could win)
Spain
Director: Oliver Laxe
Television Categories
BEST NEW NON-SCRIPTED OR DOCUMENTARY SERIES (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)
Citizen Nation
Creator: Bret Sigler
Executive Producers: Christopher Buck, Kyra Darnton
Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time
Executive Producers: Jonathan Chinn, Simon Chinn, Ryan Coogler, Myles Estey, Ted Skillman, Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, Peter Nicks, Kalia King, Carolyn Payne, Sean David Johnson
Co-Executive Producer: Kelli Buchanan
Pee-wee as Himself (Predicted winner)
Executive Producers: Matt Wolf, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Ronald Bronstein, Eli Bush, Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie, Paul Reubens, Candace Tomarken, Kyle Martin, Nancy Abraham, Lisa Heller, Sara Rodriguez
Seen & Heard: The History of Black Television (Could win)
Executive Producers: Issa Rae, Montrel McKay, John Maggio, Rachel Dretzin, John Ealer, Jonathan Berry, Dave Becky, Nancy Abraham, Lisa Heller, Sara Rodriguez
Co-Executive Producers: Esther Dere, Zachary Herrmann
Vow of Silence: The Assassination of Annie Mae
Executive Producers: Ezra Edelman, Caroline Waterlow, Amy Kaufman, Jake Gyllenhaal, Riva Marker
Co-Executive Producer: Mark Becker
BEST NEW SCRIPTED SERIES (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)
Adolescence (Predicted winner)
Creators/Executive Producers: Jack Thorne, Stephen Graham
Executive Producers: Philip Barantini, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Nina Wolarsky, Hannah Walters, Mark Herbert, Emily Feller
Co-Executive Producers: Carina Sposato, Niall Shamma, Peter Balm
Common Side Effects
Creators/Executive Producers: Joe Bennett, Steve Hely
Executive Producers: Mike Judge, Greg Daniels, Dustin Davis, James Merrill, Sean Buckelew, Benjy Brooke, Kelly Crews, Suzanna Makkos
Co-Executive Producer: Dave King
Forever (Could win)
Creator/Executive Producer: Mara Brock Akil
Executive Producers: Regina King, Susie Fitzgerald, Shana C. Waterman, Reina King, Anthony Hemingway, Judy Blume, Erika Harrison, Sara E. White
Co-Executive Producer: Jerron Horton
Mr Loverman
Executive Producers: Lennie James, Hong Khaou, Jo McClellan, Faye Ward, Hannah Farrell, Hannah Price
North of North
Creators/Executive Producers: Stacey Aglok MacDonald, Alethea Arnaquq-Baril
Executive Producers: Garry Campbell, Anya Adams, Susan Coyne, Miranda de Pencier
Co-Executive Producers: Teresa M. Ho, Michael Goldbach, Kathryn Borel Jr., JP Larocque
BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Sydney Chandler
Alien: Earth
Stephen Graham (Predicted winner)
Adolescence
Ethan Hawke
The Lowdown
Lennie James
Mr Loverman
Anna Lambe
North of North
Lola Petticrew
Say Nothing
Seth Rogen
The Studio
Lovie Simone
Forever
Michelle Williams
Dying for Sex
Noah Wyle (Could win)
The Pitt
BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Ariyon Bakare
Mr Loverman
Babou Ceesay
Alien: Earth
Sharon D. Clarke
Mr Loverman
Taylor Dearden
The Pitt
Erin Doherty (Predicted winner)
Adolescence
Stephen McKinley Henderson
A Man on the Inside
Poorna Jagannathan
Deli Boys
Xosha Roquemore
Forever
Jenny Slate (Could win)
Dying for Sex
Ben Whishaw
Black Doves
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Asif Ali (Could win)
Deli Boys
Wally Baram
Overcompensating
Owen Cooper (Predicted winner)
Adolescence
Michael Cooper Jr.
Forever
Ernest Kingsley Junior
Washington Black
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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