76th DGA Awards Preview and Predictions: Christopher Nolan is Winning, but What Races are Real Races?

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Christopher Nolan will handily win his first DGA award this weekend for Oppenheimer, I can’t imagine anyone else winning or anyone that would predict otherwise. And, after five nominations, it will be a well-earned victory and no less so because it’s inevitable.

Nolan’s only Oscar competition here is Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon and Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things and they couldn’t be wider on the spectrum of the DGA. While Lanthimos is on his first nomination here (the DGA didn’t nominate for 2018’s The Favourite but the Oscars did), Scorsese notched his 13th nod here. He won the DGA Award in 2010 for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Dramatic Television for Boardwalk Empire and he was nominated for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Documentary for George Harrison: Living in the Material World in 2011. He received the DGA Honor in 1999 and the DGA Lifetime Achievement Award in 2003. So if there’s a spoiler of any kind it would most likely come from him.

With only eight year of history for the First-Time Director category, not only do we not have enough to establish proper trends and stats, the DGA voters have gone out of their way to make sure there aren’t any. Only once has a nominee here at the DGA been nominated at the Oscars for Best Director, Jordan Peele for 2017’s Get Out, and he won here. We’ve also seen a Best Director Oscar nominee for their first time miss here, Emerald Fennell for 2020’s Promising Young Woman. Then there’s the wild year where Bradley Cooper was nominated for both DGA awards for 2018’s A Star Is Born then lost this one to Bo Burnham for Eighth Grade and got snubbed at the Oscars. In all other years being nominated in Best Picture at the Oscars is the leg up and if we follow last year, snagging the most Breakthrough/Debut/First Time director prizes from critics brings that other leg up. But this is a closer race than most think. Celine Song (Past Lives) is this year’s Charlotte Wells (Aftersun) in one regard, earning the most of those honors. While her film wasn’t nominated for Best Picture, it was by far the closest to that among her DGA competition. While Past Lives is nominated for Best Picture that’s all it has outside of Original Screenplay for Song. Which brings Cord Jefferson (American Fiction) into view. With five Oscar nominations: Best Picture, Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Original Score, American Fiction is by far the stronger film. If you happened to listen to the most recent AwardsWatch podcast (at around the nine minute mark of our general Oscar talk), Josh Parham mentioned he’s picking Jefferson to win here and it’s more than possible. But here’s something to think about in terms of what is the stronger film/directorial effort; in 2020 when Darius Marder (Sound of Metal) and Florian Zeller (The Father) were both nominated here Marder triumphed despite The Father going on to win Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. Sound of Metal won two Oscars in its own right (Film Editing and Sound) but arguably The Father would seemingly have been the stronger film. So again, the DGA doesn’t give us tried and true paths, and that’s a good thing.

The episodes “Rehearsal,” “Connor’s Wedding,” “America Decides” and “Tailgate Party” of Succession were all nominated for Dramatic Series alongside the bottle episode of The Last of Us, “Long, Long Time” directed by Peter Hoar. Two years ago Succession became the first series in 39 years to receive all the nominations in its category and Mark Mylod came out triumphant. I expect him to win here again, as he did at the Emmys last month, for “Connor’s Wedding.” If anyone could upset him though, it wouldn’t be a fellow Successioner, it would be Hoar.

In comedy series, the third and final season of Ted Lasso earned two nominations, the second season of The Bear earned two and the final season of Barry rounded out the category. At the Emmys last month, The Bear bested both Barry‘s “wow” and Ted Lasso‘s “So Long, Farewell” but not for the episode “Fishes,” nominated here at the DGA. To make things just a little more complicated, last year at the DGA the Barry episode “710N” beat the Storer episode “Review,” which just won the Emmy. Make sense? It’s all about eligibility periods and not only are the Emmys and DGA’s not the same, the postponement of the Emmys from September 2023 (covering shows that aired from June 1, 2022 to May 31, 2023) to January 2024 where guilds that use a calendar year as their season eligibility made for some confused awards watchers, even the most seasoned of us. So while The Bear lost to Barry at the DGA last year, I expect that to flip and Christopher Storer to triumph over Bill Hader. Ted Lasso has had no luck with the DGA (but has won the directing Emmy once) so it’s hard to argue against Hader’s three wins in this category doesn’t put him in the runner-up slot.

Everyone in the Movies for Television or Limited Series category is a first-time DGA nominee here and with the multi-Emmy winning Beef not on the DGA timeline (it will show up next year) we have Shawn Levy, who directed all episodes of the World War II drama All the Light We Cannot See from Netflix, three episodes of the new Apple TV+ series Lessons in Chemistry with Brie Larson and an episode of Daisy Jones & the Six from Prime Video. Levy feels like a solid pick here. As to who would be a spoiler? Nzingha Stewart’s episode of Daisy Jones or Tara Miele’s finale of Lessons make sense. But I think Sarah Adina Smith’s shocking second episode of Lessons is the one to watch out for.

For documentaries, the nominees are 20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Kokomo City and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. While 20 Days in Mariupol is probably our Documentary Feature Oscar winner, the DGA and Oscar do not have much crossover with the last time being 2019’s American Factory. All directors are first-time nominees here except Davis Guggenheim for Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, which got snubbed at the Oscars. I think Mstyslav Chernov will pull it out for 20 Days but this is a widely open category.

Saturday Night Live has won the Variety/Talk/News/Sports – Regularly Scheduled Program category eight out of the 10 years of this category including the last seven years in a row. There’s no way it’s losing with the Pedro Pascal episode, arguably the most celebrated episode of the show this season. As to who’s second is anyone’s guess as the only other winner ever in this category (The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon) isn’t nominated. Both the 9-time nominated and never won Paul G. Casey for Real Time with Bill Maher or Jim Hockinson for The Late Show with Stephen Colbert might be the one either is still a long shot.

Hard to argue against five-time winner Glenn Weiss in the Variety Specials category, having won here half the times its been in existence and nominated here for the 95th Academy Awards. Awards shows – be it the Oscars, Grammys or Tonys – have won 6/10 times. What don’t win are stand-up specials, of which there three here. That puts Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love as the best other contender.

The 76th DGA Awards will be held February 10 in Los Angeles and once again hosted by Judd Apatow.

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN THEATRICAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted winner: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Could win: Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films / Paramount Pictures)

Other nominees: Greta Gerwig for Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures), Alexander Payne for The Holdovers (Focus Features), Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
 
MICHAEL APTED AWARD FOR OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN FIRST-TIME THEATRICAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted winner: Celine Song for Past Lives (A24)
Could win: Cord Jefferson for American Fiction (Orion Pictures / Amazon MGM Studios)

Other nominees: Manuela Martelli for Chile ‘76 (Kino Lober), NOORA NIASARI for Shayda (Sony Pictures Classics / ORIGMA 45), A.V. Rockwell for A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

DOCUMENTARY

Predicted winner: Mstyslav Chernov for 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS Distribution)
Could win: Davis Guggenheim for Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple Original Films)

Other nominees: Moses Bwayo & Christopher Sharp for Bobi Wine: The People’s President (National Geographic), Madeleine Gavin for Beyond Utopia (Roadside Attractions), D. Smith for Kokomo City (Magnolia Pictures)
 
DRAMATIC SERIES

Predicted winner: Mark Mylod for Succession, “Connor’s Wedding” (HBO | MAX)
Could win: Peter Hoar for The Last of Us, “Long, Long Time” (HBO | MAX)

Other nominees: Andrij Parekh for Succession, “America Decides” (HBO | MAX), Becky Martin for Succession, “Rehearsal” (HBO | MAX), Robert Pulcini & Shari Springer Berman for Succession, “Tailgate Party” (HBO | MAX)

COMEDY SERIES

Predicted winner: Christopher Storer for The Bear, “Fishes” (FX)
Could win: Bill Hader for Barry, “wow” (HBO | MAX)

Other nominees: Ramy Youssef for The Bear, “Honeydew” (FX), Erica Dunton for Ted Lasso, “La Locker Room Aux Folles” (Apple TV+), Declan Lowney for Ted Lasso, “So Long, Farewell” (Apple TV+)

MOVIES FOR TELEVISION AND LIMITED SERIES

Predicted winner: Shawn Levy for All the Light We Cannot See (Netflix)
Could win: Sarah Adina Smith for Lessons in Chemistry, “Her and Him” (Apple TV+)

Other nominees: Tara Miele for Lessons in Chemistry, “Introduction to Chemistry” (Apple TV+), Millicent Shelton for Lessons in Chemistry, “Poirot” (Apple TV+), Nzingha Stewart for Daisy Jones & The Six, “Track 10: Rock ‘n’ Roll Suicide” (Amazon)

VARIETY/TALK/NEWS/SPORTS – REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING

Predicted winner: Michael Mancini & Liz Patrick for Saturday Night Live, “Pedro Pascal / Coldplay” (NBC)
Could win: Jim Hockinson for The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, “Jan. 19, 2023: Rep. Adam Kinzinger; Meet Me at the Altar; Special appearance by Harvey Guillén” (CBS)

Other nominees: Paul G. Casey for Real Time with Bill Maher, “Episode 2117” (HBO | MAX), David Paul Myer for The Daily Show with Trevor Noah, “Singer Charley Crockett Performs “Name on a Billboard” and Discusses New Album with Jordan Klepper “ (Comedy Central), Paul Pennolino for Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, “Episode 1018: Dollar Stores” (HBO | MAX)

VARIETY/TALK/NEWS/SPORTS – SPECIALS

Predicted winner: Glenn Weiss for The 95th Annual Academy Awards (ABC)
Could win: Paul Miller for Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love (NBC)

Other nominees:

Joel Gallen for Chris Rock: Selective Outrage (Netflix)
Stan Lathan for Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer (Netflix)
Linda Mendoza for Wanda Sykes: I’m an Entertainer (Netflix)

REALITY PROGRAMS

Predicted winner: Joseph Guidry & Alexandra Lipsitz for Project Greenlight: A New Generation, “PGL vs. Gray Matter Problem” (HBO | MAX)
Could win: Niharika Desai for Rainn Wilson and the Geography of Bliss, “Happiness is a Bottle of Cod Liver Oil” (Peacock)

Other nominees: Ken Fuchs for The Golden Bachelor, “Premiere” (ABC), Rich Kim for Lego Masters, “Is It Brick?” (FOX), Patrick McManus for American Ninja Warrior, “Season 15 Finale” (NBC)

CHILDREN’S PROGRAMS

Predicted winner: James Robin for Percy Jackson and the Olympians, “I Accidentally Vaporize My Pre-Algebra Teacher” (Disney+)
Could win: Destin Daniel Cretton for American Born Chinese, “What Guy Are You” (Disney+)

Other nominees: Dinh Thai for American Born Chinese, “A Monkey on a Quest” (Disney+), Rob Letterman for Goosebumps, “Say Cheese and Die” (Disney+), Amy Schatz for Stand Up & Shout: Songs From a Philly High School (HBO | MAX)