76th Directors Guild of America (DGA) Nomination Preview and Predictions

Since the expanded lineup of Best Picture at the Oscars, the DGA and the Academy have only gone 5/5 one time and, most interestingly, it was the first year – 2009, when Kathryn Bigelow, James Cameron, Quentin Tarantino, Lee Daniels and Jason Reitman all translated their DGA nominations to the Oscars.

While that might feel like I’m getting ahead of myself as these are DGA nomination predictions I’m doing here, where it helps is to know that every year since 2009 the DGA has gone 4/5 with Oscar with the exceptions of 2018 where Bradley Cooper and Peter Farrelly lost out to Yorgos Lanthimos and Pawelł Pawlikowski and that crazy 2012 season where only Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee made the crossover and we saw those huge snubs for Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck (who would go on to win Best Picture and every other director accolade), and to a lesser degree Tom Hooper.

What all this means is that while I think this year’s DGA five seems suspiciously too easy to predict – they’re just still a safer group than their Oscar branch counterparts – if most feel the same five here (and from what I’ve seen of predictions from others, they do) – that means that one of these five will get booted on Oscar nomination morning. But for whom? Someone more auteur? Someone…or two from major non-English language or heavily European films like we’ve seen now happens consistently for years? Specifically, Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) and Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) but the DGA’s lack of interest in international directors unless they’re a major frontrunner like Alfonso Cuarón says they’re still on the outside. Either getting in would signal a big change for the group.

What we have is another name-heavy season full of some DGA favorites like Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) with 10 DGA noms and one win. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) has four DGA nods, only one of which has transferred to an Oscar nomination, 2017’s Dunkirk. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) has been nominated twice here but the last time was 2011 for The Descendants. Still, he feels like a catnip director for the DGA and especially for a film as loved as his. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) has one previous DGA nomination, for 2017’s Lady Bird, which she turned into an Oscar nod. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) is one of those directors that was blanked by DGA and then swooped in for an Oscar nomination, replacing a DGA-nominated director. From there the waters are murky. Bradley Cooper (Maestro) has earned Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations for director, but both in fields of six. His self-directed story of composer and conductor Leonard Bernstein went 0/4 at the Globes last night, not a great sign.

With an overwhelming lead among critics as a first time director, Celine Song (Past Lives) is the easiest prediction and most assuredly will win here. Much like Charlotte Wells with Aftersun last year, even in a rich and competitive year in this category, it’s her. Outside of Song there is a clear path for Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), a minor contender for the main DGA honor. Then it gets a little more open, a lot more. We have celebrated first films from A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One), Savanah Leaf (Earth Mama) and Raven Jackson (All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt), which could populate this category with more women, and certainly more women of color, than it ever has before. Will the branch go for something a bit braver and off center like the horror hit Talk to Me from Danny Philippou and Michael Philippou? It would be an inspired choice. Fun fact (thanks Alfonso): Emerald Fennell missed this category for her 2017 debut Promising Young Woman but made it in the main DGA five and then ultimately Oscar’s top five.

Nominations for the 76th Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards will be announced on January 10. Here are my predictions.

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures

• Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros)
• Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
• Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Next up: Cord Jefferson – American Fiction (Amazon MGM), Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix), Celine Song – Past Lives (A24)

Outstanding Directorial Achievement of a First-Time Feature Film Director

• Raven Jackson – All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt (A24)
• Cord Jefferson – American Fiction (Amazon MGM)
• Celine Song – Past Lives (A24)
• Raine Allen Miller – Rye Lane (Searchlight Pictures)
• A.V. Rockwell – A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Next up: Michelle Garza Cervera – Huesera: The Bone Woman (Cinépolis Distribución), Georgia Oakley – Blue Jean (Altitude Films), Savanah Leaf – Earth Mama (A24), Tina Satter – Reality (HBO), Danny Philippou and Michael Philippou – Talk to Me (A24)

First–Time Feature nominees that also earned a main nomination: Garth Davis (Lion, 2016) Jordan Peele (Get Out, 2017), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born, 2018)

First–Time Feature nominees that also earned an Oscar nomination: Jordan Peele (Get Out, 2017)

Bradley Cooper is the only director to earn both nominations then miss an Oscar nod.